978
FXUS64 KHUN 290540
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1140 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 958 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

 - Cold rain moves in late Saturday night and continues through
   Sunday (70-90% chance).

 - Wind chills drop into the mid-teens on Monday morning.

 - More cold rain, heavy at times, from Monday afternoon through
   Tuesday (80-90% chance).

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 958 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Broadly cyclonic flow is in place across North America, and is
reinforcing a cold air mass extending from the northern Rockies
into the southern Appalachian region. At the surface, high
pressure is centered over Kentucky while a surface low deepens
over Colorado and will approach the Mid-Mississippi Valley
overnight. As a result, mostly clear skies this evening will fill
in with debris cirrus from the cyclone to the west. Sufficient
radiational cooling before then will allow for temperatures
overnight to drop into the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 958 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Attention turns westward as an approaching shortwave trough
pushes the surface high east of the Appalachians. The resultant
CAD setup will cause dry air to linger in the lower levels
throughout the day Saturday. After some likely virga in the
afternoon, an area of showers will move in from the west ahead of
an approaching cold front in the evening hours. Rain will continue
through midday Sunday, with temperatures only bottoming out in
the upper 30s to low 40s overnight, which removes any potential
for wintry precipitation. Sunday will be dreary in the morning
with lingering cold rain and then only warm into the mid to upper
40s.

Post-frontal upper level flow becomes more zonal behind the
shortwave trough. Sunday night will see temperatures drop into the
mid 50s, but winds gusting 15-20 mph will cause wind chills to
reach the mid-teens. Progressing into Monday, the subtropical jet
phases with the primary jet ahead of an approaching longwave
trough. A surface low pressure system tracking along the northern
Gulf coast will stream moisture northward into the TN Valley.
Cloud cover increases Monday afternoon and rain pushes in from
the southwest, continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures
steadily decrease from the mid 40s Tuesday morning down to the
upper 20s by Tuesday night. While the trough axis and attendant
surface low push east of the area by Tuesday night, the fly in the
ointment would be any wrap around moisture while surface
temperatures are sub-zero. A passing jet streak may provide
sufficient lift to produce non-impactful flurries Tuesday night,
but confidence is very low (10% chance).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 958 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The cold air mass remains over the Southeast through the
remainder of the work week. Surface high pressure will track over
the Southeast Wednesday. Southerly return flow on Thursday will
increase cloud cover throughout the day. There is disagreement
between global ensemble models in how quickly the next system
arrives. At this point, it looks like late next week into the
weekend will see a return of rain. We will need to monitor how
this overlaps with the arrival of colder air. Otherwise, high
temperatures will peak near 50 each day with lows in the upper 20s
to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the overnight period and
through much of tomorrow with increasing chances for rain and wind
shear toward the end of the period. Will have periods of high
clouds overnight and through the mid morning hours tomorrow before
more mid level cloud cover begins to filter in ahead of our next
storm system. Did add PROB30 groups for rain chances after 00z
tomorrow with southern wind shear near 40kts at 2kft tomorrow
night at KMSL.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25