805
FXUS64 KHUN 180155
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
855 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 856 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Showers ongoing near the AL/MS border have continued northward
over the last 1-2 hours, leaving mostly dry weather in their wake.
However, a low chance (20% or less) of rain remains over the next
1-2 hours. Confidence is low in continued shower formation due to
the loss of daytime heating.

Sfc high pressure in the Carolinas continues to bring
southeasterly winds to the area overnight as well as warm, dry
conditions. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to
mid 70s under mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The upper-level ridge should remain over the Central Appalachians
and Mid Atlantic, away from the Tennessee Valley, though should
still influence our weather through the middle of the week.
Synoptic- scale subsidence should still limit rain chances though
the next few days (less than 10%). Drier dewpoints in the 50s and
60s, should also move in by Wednesday. In other words, very
similar weather through Thursday, with highs in the 90s and lows
in the 70s under mostly clear skies and surface winds generally
out of the south, up to 10 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Dry conditions with very warm to hot conditions are expected to
continue for the remainder of the work week, thanks to strong upper
level ridging situated over the eastern Lower-48. The 500mb depiction
of this ridge has it amplifying to near 600 decameters height values
in the Thursday to early Friday timeframe. The upper ridge should
weaken somewhat as it settles more to the south this weekend, and
then replaced early next week as mean troughing builds in from the
north. While the upper ridge is in place and under partly cloudy
skies, highs on Thu should warm into the lower 90s. As the ridge
heads southward, subsidence under it should help make for more sunny
skies over the Tennessee Valley. More solar insolation should result
in the heat returning, with highs temperatures in the Friday-Sunday
time frame soaring into the mid 90s, with mid/upper 90s on Sat and
especially Sun. Corresponding heat index values in 90s Thu/Fri should
rise to around 100 degrees on Sat, and in the 99-104 degree range
Sun.

The models have backed off of a potential tropical born system moving
over the SE coast Thu/Fri, instead are focusing the deepest tropical
moisture over the Gulf and Caribbean. This moisture should be
directed more to our west, keeping the area rain free for the most
part in the latter half of the week. However, more moisture should
return on Sun, and bring isolated showers/thunderstorm chances to the
area. Rain chances may go up as we go into the next week, as a more
unsettled pattern possibly returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with light,
southeasterly winds overnight into Tuesday morning. Tuesday
afternoon, southeasterly gusts up to 15-16 kts are possible. There
is a very low chance some shower development may occur this
evening around KMSL, however, confidence is too low to include it
in the official TAF product. Therefore, amendments may be needed.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....Serre
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...HC