Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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106
FXUS64 KHUN 181451
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
951 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 950 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

 - High chances of showers return from late tonight into early
   Sunday morning, with a low chance of strong to severe storms.

 - Wind gusts (outside of thunderstorms) of 20-30 mph are
   expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

 - A cooler air mass will arrive during the early part of next
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 950 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Already starting to warm up nicely this morning with current temps
in the upper 60s to lower 70s already. Plenty of sunshine out
there right now, however cloud cover is starting to slide in from
the south as moisture and WAA filters in. As the pressure gradient
tightens today between high pressure along the Southeast coast and
a developing low in the Plains, winds will become breezy. S/SW
winds will be 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts. This will help temps
warm up into the 80s, ranging from the lower 80s in NE AL/S Mid TN
to the upper 80s in NW AL.

Our attention turns to the potential for strong to severe storms
overnight tonight, so take time today to ensure you have more than
one way to receive warnings and weather information. Be sure to
check the weather before heading to bed as well.

A sharp trough will amplify as it swings through the Plains and
become slightly negatively tilted as it heads into the OH and MS
Valley tonight. The associated cold front will push into the TN
Valley and Mid South during the overnight hours. Timeframe for
the storms just ahead of the front remains steady, about Midnight
to 6 AM, but will monitor the progression of the front to see if
any timing needs to be adjusted. Trends continue show that
thermodynamics with this system will be limited, however with the
mid and upper level wind energy in place, shear will be favorable
for a line of organized convection. Thus, damaging winds will be
primary threat. There has been consistency in the models as well
with PWATs reaching the 75th to 99th percentile reaching 1.4-1.6",
thus allowing for storms to produce heavy rainfall. However, with
storms moving fairly quickly, there is no widespread concern for
flooding or flash flooding. Instability values also remain really
low in the forecast soundings, but with low level shear values
25-35 kts, cannot rule out the low potential for a tornado if the
instability is able to become surface based. With this, SPC has a
sliver of a Slight Risk (2/5) in NW AL, and almost the rest of us
in a Marginal Risk (1/5).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 950 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Post-frontal conditions Sunday afternoon through early next week are
forecast to be dry as sfc high pressure moves in from the west.
Tuesday, as a low pressure system continues eastward over the Great
Lakes region, a secondary associated cold front is forecast to push
through from the northwest. Rain chances look to remain low (less
than 15%) as sfc high pressure is forecast to quickly push in behind
it. Highs during the short term period are forecast to reach the mid
60s-70s with overnight lows in the upper 30s-40s through most of the
area. These temperatures are slightly below normal (around 5
degrees) for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A second shortwave will ripple across the lower Ohio Valley,
sending another reinforcing shot of cool air as a dry cold front
passes through the region. A fairly stout area of high pressure
will build back into the region mid to late week as cool, dry air
mass will settle in. As a result, highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s will be common, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. We
may need to watch for some patchy frost in a few sheltered valleys
Wednesday morning and Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

There have been no major changes to previous aviation forecast
reasoning, with a notable increase in VFR stratocu expected later
this morning as winds veer to SSW and increase to 10G18 kts.
Although a few showers will be possible this aftn as the
southwesterly low-level jet progressively increases to 15-25 kts,
it appears as if this activity will be most concentrated across
northeast AL and we will not mention in the TAFs at this point.
Development of a lower stratus layer is predicted to occur by
2Z/MSL and 4Z/HSV as low-lvl moisture will begin to increase more
substantially with further intensification of the low-level jet
ahead of an approaching storm system. With SSW winds at the 850-mb
layer predicted to quickly increase to 45-55 knots during the
evening, LLWS has been introduced in both TAFs. A band of mod-hvy
rain (and perhaps an embedded TSRA) will begin to impact MSL by
5-6Z and HSV by 7-8Z, with strong wind gusts expected even in the
potential absence of lightning/thunder. Overcast cigs arnd 1500 ft
(or lower) will persist in the wake of precipitation.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...70