078
FXUS64 KHUN 031042
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
442 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 213 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - Persistent low overcast will last into the morning hours.

 - Chances for rain occur at times Thursday through Saturday
   night, with medium to high chances Thursday night into Friday
   morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 213 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Persistent low overcast remains in place over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys south to the Gulf Coast. Surface high pressure
was situated along this axis of cloud coverage and will shift east
into the TN valley today. This will keep winds light and may tend
to delay the dissipation of the clouds. The 00Z BMX and OHX
soundings indicate a strong inversion associated with the layer of
clouds as well which may also tend to keep them in play through
most of today. For now, there is model support for dissipation of
the cloud cover with time today. This would enable sunshine to
push temperatures into the 40s to around 50 for highs this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Another storm system should begin forming Wednesday afternoon
over the Texas coast. As a surface low with this system over the
NW Gulf region develops, clouds from it will begin overspreading
the Tennessee Valley during Wednesday night. Low temperatures
should cool to around 30 with light winds. Rain from this system
should begin overspreading some of the forecast area Thursday.
Areas with the best rain chances should be near/south of the
Tennessee River. High temperatures Thursday should rise into the
mid/upper 40s.

As the system traverses the Thu night/Fri morning, more rain from
the system should reach the area. This rain like with the last
system should be more stratiform than convective in nature (being
on the north side of the cyclone), thus any thunder occurrence is
minimal. The better rain chances will be more to the south. With
rain, not as cool Thursday night with lows in mid 30s (some lower
30s cannot be ruled out in southern middle Tennessee). Highs on
Friday should rise into the mid/upper 40s and lows in the 30s. The
newest NBM has went on a wetter track with rain chances as we
close out the week. The system tracking slowly along the northern
Gulf coast will keep chances of rain continuing into Saturday.
Given the low being well to our south, the higher rain chances
likewise will remain to our south. High temperatures Saturday
should inch up a bit to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The main feature to watch through the long term forecast will be
the passage of a 500 MB trough through the eastern CONUS. Through
the weekend, the trough will amplify and move from the Plains into
the eastern CONUS. In association a surface low pressure system
looks to pass through the area from Sunday and Sunday night.

Deterministic models maintain high uncertainty regarding if any
precip will be present with the frontal passage. As such, stuck
with blended guidance that reflects the low chances of rain (~20%)
from Sunday night. If we do receive precip, especially near
daybreak Monday morning, we will have to keep an eye on temps as
they will likely near or just below freezing which could produce
brief and hopefully non-impactful wintry precip. We have very low
confidence in this however, just an interesting (non-impactful)
tidbit to keep an eye on.

Through the beginning of the work week, zonal flow aloft paired with
high pressure influence will promote non impactful weather. Temps
will have the opportunity to warm slightly with highs in the 40s and
50s. The forecast becomes slightly more uncertain from Wednesday
forward as models struggle to resolve our next system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 441 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Persistent low overcast event will continue through most of today
with ceilings of 010-020agl (MVFR). A few patches may drop below
010agl (IFR) for a brief time as well. Uncertainty remains on
whether the overcast layer will dissipate this afternoon, so
check for future updates. This update will maintain clearing
around 22Z with a return to VFR conditions.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17