327
FXUS64 KHUN 041012
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
412 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 229 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - Very low chance (20% or less) for sleet mixing in with rain
   showers around sunrise in southwest portion of north Alabama.

 - Chances for rain at times through Sunday. The highest chances
   will be late this afternoon into tonight before ending Friday
   morning.

 - Temperatures remain a few degrees below normal the next several
   days.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Temperatures have dipped into the upper 20s to around 30 this
morning. Patchy BR has developed, but with thick mid and high
level clouds now arriving, the risk of freezing fog may tend to go
down. Rain showers were expanding northeast into central and
northern MS. These may clip our southwest counties early this
morning, perhaps mixing with ice pellets. Will monitor this
precipitation trend, but at this time impacts are not anticipated.
This first wave of precipitation may tend to dissipate rather
quickly upon reaching a rather dry layers over AL and middle TN.
Thus, will keep the PoPs low this morning. The break in the
precipitation should allow temperatures to warm into the 40s for
afternoon highs.

The next wave of rainfall will quickly develop this afternoon
over the lower MS valley and arrive by late afternoon in northwest
AL into southern middle TN. This will shift east through the
evening and overnight hours. Forecast soundings indicate that
wintry precipitation would not be a concern in our forecast area,
remaining just to our northwest. Rain will end from west to east
late tonight, possibly lingering in our eastern counties until
just after sunrise. Overnight lows will be in the middle to upper
30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

By Friday afternoon, expect dry conditions to be the rule. Not
much cold air behind this initial front, as it basically stalls
over southern Alabama and Georgia. So no real push to much colder
air into the area. However, lingering cloud cover will likely keep
highs a bit cooler. Highs on Friday are expected to climb into
the mid 40s.

Saturday should be a bit warmer, with zonal flow continuing and
some clearing in the afternoon. Highs should return to the lower
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Some clearing Saturday night, but guidance shows mostly cloudy
conditions returning around midnight and continuing through the
overnight hours. Lows in the 35 to 40 degree range look
reasonable.

The main feature to watch through the long term forecast will be
the passage of a 500 MB trough through the eastern CONUS. Through
the weekend, the trough will amplify and move from the Plains into
the eastern CONUS. In association a surface low pressure system
looks to pass through the area from Sunday and Sunday night.

Deterministic models maintain high uncertainty regarding if any
precip will be present with the frontal passage. As such, stuck
with blended guidance that reflects the low chances of rain (~20%)
from Sunday night. If we do receive precip, especially near
daybreak Monday morning, we will have to keep an eye on temps as
they will likely near or just below freezing which could produce
brief and hopefully non-impactful wintry precip. We have very low
confidence in this however, just an interesting (non-impactful)
tidbit to keep an eye on.

Through the beginning of the work week, zonal flow aloft paired with
high pressure influence will promote non impactful weather. Temps
will have the opportunity to warm slightly with highs in the 40s and
50s. The forecast becomes slightly more uncertain from Wednesday
forward as models struggle to resolve our next system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 411 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Ceilings of 060-120agl (VFR) will lower to 030-060agl by 18-20Z.
By 23-00Z, -RA and ceilings of 020-030agl (MVFR) will overspread
north AL and southern middle TN. By 02-03Z, ceilings will lower
below 010agl (IFR) with widespread -RA or RA and BR with
visibility of 3-5SM expected.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17