560
FXUS64 KHUN 060519
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1119 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

 - Some patchy fog towards daybreak. Very brief patchy freezing
   fog possible in portions of southern middle Tennessee. Due to
   it expected patchy and brief nature, no significant impacts
   are expected.

 - Periods of light rain have a low-medium chance (20-40%) of
   occurring late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

 - Colder again Monday/Monday night with sub-freezing lows. Then
   warming again.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Saturday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Cloudy conditions remain in place. Winds have not dropped off
quite as much as anticipated. Between the winds and cloud cover,
fog has been kept at bay. Not expecting as much fog as previously
thought. Though, some patchy fog might develop around and just
after daybreak briefly. Confidence in even that happening is very
low though. But still kept some patchy fog in areas east of I-65
around daybreak. Also, warmed up temperatures a tad based on
current and expected upstream dewpoints. Though some location in
southern middle Tennessee may still see temperatures dropping to
32 degrees very briefly around daybreak. Thus, some patchy
freezing fog is in the forecast then. The brevity and patchy
nature should keep any significant impacts from occurring.

The main question of the day is whether we will see the sunshine
return today. Most guidance does push the mostly cloudy conditions
southeast of the area during the early afternoon hours. This makes
sense seeing the strong subsidence shown in most guidance both at
700 mb and aloft then. The sunshine will help to make for a
warmer day today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Zonal to slightly SW flow aloft will be the rule of thumb Saturday
night into Sunday, as a weak longwave trough axis pushes from the
Central Plains into the Missouri Valley region. A frontal boundary
near the surface develops with it and merges with a weak area of
low pressure over the western Gulf coastal area. This surface low
helps to advect enough moisture northward ahead of this front to
allow for some precipitation to move into parts of Mississippi
Sunday morning and afternoon. Not sure if the atmosphere will be
moist enough for precipitation to reach the ground in NW Alabama
until late in the afternoon hours at the earliest if not after 6
PM CST. Took our 20 pop during the morning/early afternoon hours
the NBM ensemble was putting in for now. Kept a 20 pop in after 4
PM CST, with higher pop between 30 and 60 percent Sunday night.
Still looks like all rain with no thunderstorm activity.

The models still move the longwave trough axis ENE pretty quickly
Sunday night. Most guidance has the precipitation east or
northeast of the area by 12Z on Monday. This should keep any
wintry precipitation out of the forecast, but may need to watch
for flurries in southern middle Tennessee around and just after
daybreak. For now, left them out of the forecast since even
flurries would have little impact.

Much drier and colder again on Monday with some cloud cover
lingering into the early afternoon hours east of the I-65
corridor. Strong cold air advection should keep highs in the upper
30s to lower 40s, despite some afternoon sunshine. &&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Back to sub-freezing lows again Monday night with clear skies and
high pressure building in. Lows in the mid 20s are expected. This
intrusion of colder air should be brief, as warm air advection
ahead of another front moving through the western Great Lakes
early next week keeps things on the warmer side. Highs in the
lower 50s should warm into the 55 to 60 degree range on Wednesday
with lows warming as well into the lower to mid 30s.

This front seems to have a hard time pushing into the southeast
and hangs up over eastern Texas into the Ohio Valley. However, a
weak pre-frontal trough axis looks to be close enough to produce a
few showers over the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

This weak pre-frontal trough axis may focus a bit more moisture
and forcing over the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night,
before pushing east of the area. This should pull the precipitation
east with it as colder and drier air moves into the area. Highs
look to drop back down into the upper 30s to lower 40s again on
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Back to sub-freezing lows again Monday night with clear skies and
high pressure building in. Lows in the mid 20s are expected. This
intrusion of colder air should be brief, as warm air advection
ahead of another front moving through the western Great Lakes
early next week keeps things on the warmer side. Highs in the
lower 50s should warm into the 55 to 60 degree range on Wednesday
with lows warming as well into the lower to mid 30s.

This front seems to have a hard time pushing into the southeast
and hangs up over eastern Texas into the Ohio Valley. However, a
weak pre-frontal trough axis looks to be close enough to produce a
few showers over the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

This weak pre-frontal trough axis may focus a bit more moisture
and forcing over the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night,
before pushing east of the area. This should pull the precipitation
east with it as colder and drier air moves into the area. Highs
look to drop back down into the upper 30s to lower 40s again on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Previous thinking hasn`t changed much. Still expect CIGS below
1000 feet to develop at both terminals befor 06Z. Very light or
calm winds are expected. The persistent cloud cover should keep
any fog from forming. Models are in pretty good agreement that VFR
conditions will return as low CIGS push southeast of the terminals
between 18Z and 20Z. Kept slightly earlier time for that at KMSL
at 19Z and after 20Z at KHSV.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW