176
FXUS64 KHUN 030531
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1131 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1056 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2025

 - Low clouds should persist into the late night, with low
   temperatures in the mid and upper 20s.

 - Chances for rain returns Thursday morning and continues
   through Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A frontal boundary that moved eastward across the area before
daybreak, was now east of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coast.
However, an extensive area of MVFR height (1000-3000 ft AGL)
stratus covered much of the eastern Lower-48. Per a radar view,
no precip was being detected anywhere near the Tennessee Valley.
Despite the blanket of lower clouds, cold surface high pressure
sprawled from the western Ohio River Valley to the Lower
Mississippi Valley has brought chilly conditions across the area.
Area temperatures were in the low/mid 30s with light NW-N winds.

Large stratus decks like the one impacting the area can be slow to
break up and/or move east of the region. Likewise, output from the
various models/blends is varied as well. Timing on when the clouds
finally break up ranges from after midnight to after daybreak Wed.
Past experience with them suggests a later time, that the blends
were learning towards. A slower timing with them breaking up will
make a development of freezing fog more unlikely (as temps with
the airmass in place will chill into the lower 20s if these clouds
fade). If the clouds persist, lows overnight should not be as
cold, mainly in the mid/upper 20s.

In either case, the low clouds should dissipate as we go into the
day Wednesday. With more sun and surface high pressure over the
region, high temperatures should rise into the upper 40s to around
50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Another storm system should begin forming Wednesday afternoon
over the Texas coast. As a surface low with this system over the
NW Gulf region develops, clouds from it will begin overspreading
the Tennessee Valley during Wednesday night. Low temperatures
should cool to around 30 with light winds. Rain from this system
should begin overspreading some of the forecast area Thursday.
Areas with the best rain chances should be near/south of the
Tennessee River. High temperatures Thursday should rise into the
mid/upper 40s.

As the system traverses the Thu night/Fri morning, more rain from
the system should reach the area. This rain like with the last
system should be more stratiform than convective in nature (being
on the north side of the cyclone), thus any thunder occurrence is
minimal. The better rain chances will be more to the south. With
rain, not as cool Thursday night with lows in mid 30s (some lower
30s cannot be ruled out in southern middle Tennessee). Highs on
Friday should rise into the mid/upper 40s and lows in the 30s. The
newest NBM has went on a wetter track with rain chances as we
close out the week. The system tracking slowly along the northern
Gulf coast will keep chances of rain continuing into Saturday.
Given the low being well to our south, the higher rain chances
likewise will remain to our south. High temperatures Saturday
should inch up a bit to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The main feature to watch through the long term forecast will be
the passage of a 500 MB trough through the eastern CONUS. Through
the weekend, the trough will amplify and move from the Plains into
the eastern CONUS. In association a surface low pressure system
looks to pass through the area from Sunday and Sunday night.

Deterministic models maintain high uncertainty regarding if any
precip will be present with the frontal passage. As such, stuck
with blended guidance that reflects the low chances of rain (~20%)
from Sunday night. If we do receive precip, especially near
daybreak Monday morning, we will have to keep an eye on temps as
they will likely near or just below freezing which could produce
brief and hopefully non-impactful wintry precip. We have very low
confidence in this however, just an interesting (non-impactful)
tidbit to keep an eye on.

Through the beginning of the work week, zonal flow aloft paired with
high pressure influence will promote non impactful weather. Temps
will have the opportunity to warm slightly with highs in the 40s and
50s. The forecast becomes slightly more uncertain from Wednesday
forward as models struggle to resolve our next system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Persistent low overcast event will continue through at least the
first half of Wednesday with ceilings of 010-020agl (MVFR), with
a few spots dropping below 010agl (IFR) for a few hours (~11-15Z).
There is still much uncertainty if this overcast layer will clear
out on Wednesday, so check for future updates. As of now, this
forecast clears the low clouds by 22Z with a return to VFR
conditions.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17