903
FXUS64 KHUN 191115
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
515 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 342 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

 - A broken line of multicell showers and a couple of
   thunderstorms will continue to move through the area early
   this morning, but weaken and taper out by mid-morning.

 - High (60-90%) rain and storm chances will return to the
   forecast Friday night with the passage of our next system.

 - Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the later half of
   the weekend, with additional rain chances returning early next
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A broken line of showers with a couple of thunderstorms is
currently progressing over the local area this morning. Although,
lightning activity has substantially decreased over the past
several hours. While a low chance of a few rumbles of thunder
remains through dawn, any storms will be well below severe limits.
Most of the activity will likely be all rain as it continues to
progress to the southeast through dawn, waning by mid-morning. Dry
weather, with little to no rain chances, will then follow for
today and tonight. However, as the previous shift mentioned, a
surface front is expected to stall to the north of our area. This
will result in a cloudy and muggy day with highs reaching the mid
to upper 70s with dew points in the 60s. Tonight will be no
different, with cloudy skies and lows merely dropping into the 50s
along with comparable dew points. With small dew point
depressions and light to calm winds overnight, there is a low
chance of patchy fog; however, cloudy skies may hinder fog
development.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 954 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Ridging will briefly build in the mid levels from tonight through
Thursday ahead of our next system. At the surface the aformentioned
frontal boundary will hang out through Thursday and prompt
overcast conditions. Rain chances don`t look to return until
Thursday afternoon when the frontal boundary finally pushes
through with a low chance of thunder due to the prolonged overcast
conditions. Low rain chances (20-40%) will remain in the forecast
from Thursday evening through Friday morning for areas north of
the TN River.

Our attention will then shift to Friday when our next system
looks to pass through the area. Through the end of the week, a mid
level low pressure system will eject from the SW CONUS through
the Ohio Valley, dampening as it does so. An associated surface
low and cold front will mirror this march across the CONUS.
Locally, the front looks to move through the area Friday evening
through Saturday morning bringing with it high rain and storm
chances. Along and ahead of the front, boundary layer moisture
will remain high with dew points in the 60s. This will support a
gradual increase in rain chances through the day on Friday from
west to east as the front draws closer. Prolonged overcast
conditions will likely limit instability on Friday making CAPE our
limiting factor again as we head into the overnight hours. LREF
models maintain a few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE overnight. This
paired with 40-50 KTS of bulk shear will be supportive of some
strong to potentially severe storms as the front moves through.
Damaging winds would likely be the main threat however additional
HIRES model coverage will aid in identifying any secondary
threats. Through the coming days as this system moves into HIRES
coverage we will begin to refine forecast details regarding
timing, threats, and intensity.

Low rain chances (20-30%) look to linger behind the front as well
as overcast conditions through most of the day on Saturday. The
winds will veer slightly to the NW, no significant airmass changes
will take place leaving our high temps in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 954 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

During the later part of the weekend, sfc high pressure will contribute
to mostly dry conditions over the Tennessee Valley. Zonal flow will
begin to shift by the early work week (likely Tuesday) as an upper
level trough and subsequent low pressure system shift eastward into
the area from the Deep South. In turn, rain chances increase into
the medium range (~40%) ahead of a frontal boundary. Have stuck with
blended guidance due to this system still being a week out and some
minor model disagreement. If you have outdoor interests early next
week, be sure to check back in for updates. High temperatures are
forecast to reach the mid 60s to low 70s during this time with
overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A line of broken showers moving over northern Alabama will
continue to weaken then clear the terminals over the next hour or
two. The main concern this morning will be lowering CIGs to low-
end MVFR for the TAF sites. These conditions will persist through
late morning, before improving back to VFR this afternoon. Cloud
cover will continue through tonight, but might thin out a bit for
the evening. Otherwise, westerly winds today will range between
5-10 knots before becoming light to calm this evening. Patchy fog
development will be the concern late tonight; however, confidence
is low due to cloud cover. Thus, did not include in the TAFs for
now but this will be monitored.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...26