611
FXUS64 KHUN 112255
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
455 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1119 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

 - Record Daily Low Maximum Temperatures were set at both
   Huntsville International Airport(38 degrees) and Muscle Shoals
   Airport (41) yesterday.

 - Temperatures will warm up through the week and into the
   weekend.

 - Some rainfall could return late Sunday night into early next
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Another cool start to the day with lows earlier this morning
dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s primarily. A few warmer
temperatures were seen near the Tennessee River. Under clear
skies, temperatures have climbed into the upper 30s to lower 40s
just before 11 AM. Though via an old rule of thumb based off 10 AM
temperatures would indicate lows might be a bit cooler than
previous forecast thought. However, models do show some an
increasingly strong low level jet (evident between 925 mb and 850
mb) from the southeast developing over the area late this morning
into the afternoon hours. This will likely increase warm air
advection substantially this afternoon, especially over NW AL.
Temperatures were made slightly lower east of the I-65 corridor,
especially in higher elevations based on temperatures seen at 10
AM. However, further west believe warm air advection will play a
bigger role and highs may climb a touch above previous thinking
into the 51 to 55 degree range.

Morning soundings showed dry air aloft was in place. Not sure NBM
is picking up on the mixing that could occur and lowering of
dewpoints as a result this afternoon. ADVLAV, RAP,CONSshort, and
HRRR seem to have a better handle on this. Lowered afternoon
dewpoints as a result from NBM forecast. This will drop afternoon
RH values into the 20 to 25% range this afternoon. Winds have
already picked up to between 6 and 12 mph with gusts to around 18
mph. These winds will likely pick up a bit more this afternoon and
evening to between 10 and 15 mph gusting up to 25 mph. Be careful
if conducting any outdoor burning today, though Red Flag
conditions are not expected with fairly moist fuel conditions in
place.

Winds tonight should stay up between 5 and 10 mph with gusts of
15 to 20 mph possible. This will keep fog from developing. It will
be cool with lows dropping into the 30s to around 40 degrees in
most locations. Winds, continued warm air advection, and some weak
low level moisture advection will help keep lows more bearable. In
typical well protected valley locations (mainly east of the I-65
corridor), some lows could still drop to between 30 and 36
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

An area of high pressure will remain entrenched over the central
and eastern Gulf coastal states through Wednesday. A weak and dry
cold front will swing southeast towards the Tennessee Valley
during that period. It might bring a few high clouds to the area
on Wednesday. However, the good forcing and colder air will remain
over the Ohio Valley and points eastward.

Though an extension (more a convergence area aloft) will push
south into the surface ridge, it will have little impact. In fact,
with low level flow from the Gulf coast area and either neutral
or warm air advection in place, low temperatures and highs will
warm significantly over the southeast into the day on Wednesday.
Highs should rebound into the lower to mid 60s on Wednesday with
lows Wednesday night only dropping into the 35 to 42 degree range.

Though the surface high will remain in place Wednesday night into
Thursday, a shortwave aloft around 700 mb develops over the
Mid/Upper Plains states. This feature moves southeast towards the
Tennessee Valley during the middle/end of the week. This should
increase cloud cover over the area to some degree. Several models
indicate some mostly cloudy conditions could spread into the area
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Thinking this cloud cover
will not be very thick, but it could keep highs from reaching the
lower 70s in many locations. For now kept close to guidance with
highs in the mid to upper 60s. At this point the moisture does not
look very deep in the atmosphere and forcing with that disturbance
weakens as it gets closer to the area, so left out any rainfall
chances.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Surface high pressure will remain entrenched over the
southeastern CONUS on Friday continuing the overall warming trend.

A strong storm system will swing southeast over south central
Canada, leaving behind a lingering weak frontal boundary just
north of the area as the storm system continues to push further
east into the Atlantic. Little moisture as seen in forecast
guidance will keep the area dry going into the weekend. High
temperatures will generally reach the l70s-m70s with strong
subsidence remaining in place.

Towards the end of the weekend another strong storm system will
translate southeast from central Canada into the upper Great
Lakes. This system will largely remain north of the area though
some questions remain on how far south the associated cold front
will extend. A few models show light precipitation extending
southwest towards southern middle Tennessee. At this time kept
PoPs around 20% in the forecast starting Sunday night associated
with this front. However, cold air will remain further north near
the surface low, thus having little affect on temperatures in the
area. At the same time, an upper level cutoff low over the Pacific
coast will move into the Four Corners region. How this evolves
over the next 36 hours will have a large impact on the evolution
of precipitation chances in the area early next week.

Due to differences in the movement and intensity of the system
uncertainty exists on precipitation chances and timing. For now
keeping 20% - 40% chance of precipitation in the forecast Monday
into Tuesday. Some shear will be in place which may allow the
development of thunderstorms, though instability looks meager
limiting severe probabilities at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, along with mostly
clear skies. The main concerns will be winds and LLWS. Sustained
southwest winds tonight look to hover between 5-10 knots, with
gusts to between 15-20 knots. LLWS from the southwest at around 40
knots is shown by guidance to begin around 1-2Z this evening and
persist through about 13-14Z Wednesday morning. Winds through
Wednesday morning will then become westerly and increase to around
10 knots, with gusts to between 15-20 knots as well. Through late
Wednesday afternoon winds will gradually slacken, with winds
dropping to below 10 knots in the evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 455 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center has included much of north Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Much Above
Normal Precipitation for November 19-20th. Precipitation exceeding
1-2 inches is possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...26