617
FXUS64 KHUN 051705
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1105 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 959 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

 - Widespread fog, some of which may be dense, is expected tonight
   into Saturday morning.

 - Periods of light rain have a low-medium chance (20-40%) of
   occurring Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 959 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Much of the Southeast is currently socked in with low stratus that
has been in place since yesterday evening`s rain. A clearing line
is seen on satellite to just be entering northwest Tennessee this
morning. With weak high pressure at the surface and southwesterly
flow aloft, there is not a lot of confidence that we will see any
clearing by the end of the day. The most likely scenario is that
these low clouds stick around through tonight, as hi-res models
typically struggle with the erosion timing of low stratus decks.

As a result, anticipate high temperatures today to struggle to
reach the upper 40s with most of the area remaining in the low to
mid 40s. There has been consistency over the past 24 hours of fog
returning tonight. Visibility reductions were limited to 3-5 mi
last night, tonight should follow suit. Higher elevation areas
will remain entrenched in the cloud layer and fog will be closer
to dense, with visibility less than 1 mi.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 959 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Any fog that forms overnight will linger through the morning
hours, making any early morning travel hazardous. The center of
the weak surface high tracks closer to the TN Valley on Saturday,
so we anticipate cloud cover to finally break up in the afternoon.
Passing glimpses of the sun beforehand will allow high
temperatures to finally break the 50 degree mark with most seeing
highs in the low 50s. Should the cloud cover remain stubborn and
not erode, highs will again be capped to the mid to upper 40s.

A shortwave trough will ripple through the southwesterly flow
aloft and push yet another Gulf low through the region on Sunday.
After high temperatures reach the mid 50s in the afternoon,
areas of rain move in from the southwest in the evening (20-40%
chances). Fortunately, the cold air lags behind sufficiently that
we again avoid any impactful wintry precipitation. Lingering
shallow moisture on Monday may allow for brief flurries, but wind
gusts of 15-20 mph from the north will prevent any impactful
accumulation, should this unlikely scenario come to fruition.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1047 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

As this longwave trough axis pushes east and an attendant cold
front pushes into the area, some light showers will likely return
to the forecast. Expect the better chances of rain will be
mainly Sunday night into early Monday morning as longwave trough
axis moves through northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.
This should usher in some cooler air again early next week after
its associated cold front moves east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A low stratus deck continue to linger in place across the
Tennessee Valley. The clearing line remains nearly stationary
across far western MS. As a result, expect the IFR ceilings to
continue with only a gradual improvement up to MVFR later this
afternoon. Expect the MVFR ceilings to continue through the end of
the TAF period. Some uncertainty does exist in the forecast near
sunrise tomorrow morning. Will there be fog or just low clouds.
Leaning towards the side of low clouds for right now but did
include some BR at both terminals early tomorrow morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...GH