419
FXUS63 KICT 172338
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
638 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...Updated Aviation Forecast...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty south winds this evening especially for areas along and west
  of I-135.

- Storm chances increase late Tue afternoon and evening over
  central KS along a slow moving cold front. Strong/severe
  storms are possible with this activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A shortwave trough moving over the central and northern Great Basin
area was serving to break down the mid/upper ridge over the central
CONUS with southwest mid/upper flow returning. Meanwhile, a cold
front was draped across southern Nebraska extending northeastward
into the Great Lakes area. The front over southern Nebraska will
initially lift northward this evening as a warm front while a surge
of cooler air is progged to impact the Central High Plains tonight.
Strong southerly winds will persist into the evening hours as we
remain within a deeply mixed pbl and the LLJ is progged to quickly
ramp up this evening. A wind advisory remains in effect through 9 PM
for parts of central KS.

The slow moving or stationary front over western Kansas on Tuesday
will likely become a focus for deep moist convection on Tuesday
afternoon becoming more numerous on Tuesday evening. We continue to
see stronger capping as you move further south with locations along
and north of I-70 having the higher probabilities for showers and
storms. A stationary front will remain draped across portions of
central and western Kansas on Wednesday likely becoming a focus for
additional shower and thunderstorms chances. The front could be
forced further south depending on the amount of storm activity.

Mid/upper ridging will begin to have a bigger influence on the area
by late in the week with most areas remaining dry. Temperatures will
start to rise late in the week and into the weekend. A subtle
shortwave trough may bring a chance of showers and storms to the
area this weekend with mostly dry weather conditions lingering
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Windy conditions are expected to continue through the entirety
of the TAF period.

A tight pressure gradient as a result of a strong low pressure
in Eastern Colorado is promoting strong southerly to
southeasterly winds across the area this evening. Winds are
expected to remain out of the south with sustained winds around
20 to 25 knot and gusts around 30 to 40 knots through the
nighttime hours and for much of the day tomorrow.

Areas of blowing dust within the vicinity of recently plowed
fields may reduce visibility in very localized areas. However,
most areas may see, at worst, visibility around 5 to 7SM.

Also, MVFR cigs are possible Tuesday morning (as soon as 11-12Z)
across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas primarily
impacting KICT, KHUT, KCNU, and surrounding areas. MVFR cigs
should be brief, and VFR conditions should return by 16Z
Tuesday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>051-067-068.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-
033-047>049.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JC