837
FXUS62 KILM 032328
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
728 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will bring breezy and seasonable to
mild conditions. As the high progresses east early next week it
will become less breezy. A cold front will approach late next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mild, dry, and breezy Fall day is underway across the forecast
area with highs expected to top out around 80F amidst dew points in
the 50s to low 60s. As surface high pressure north of the area
shifts eastward and weakens through tonight, the pressure field will
tend to pivot and permit an increasingly easterly component to the
low-level flow. The end result will be periods of cloudiness and
perhaps a passing shower mainly affecting the coastal areas from
late this afternoon through tonight, with isolated spots picking up
a hundredth or two of measurable rain. Otherwise, expect a cirrus
shield to arrive from the southwest this evening as debris clouds
from convection over the Gulf is funneled northeastward ahead of a
trough in the jetstream. Although the weakening pressure gradient
will result in slower winds tonight, a light but steady northeast
breeze should continue in open areas, with sheltered and far inland
locations likely seeing periods of calm winds. Low temps should end
up mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s away from the coast, although
some cooler spots may see mid-50s.

On Saturday, guidance suggests a weak upper-level anticyclone should
organize with its center over eastern NC, turning the mid-level flow
to southeasterly. The growth of the anticyclone aloft should
suppress mid-level impulses and keep them south of the area,
resulting in a very low chance for any showers to make it to shore,
despite the more directly onshore trajectory of the flow field.
Nevertheless, intervals of clouds and sun can be expected as bands
of clouds move onshore through the day and an isolated shower cannot
be completely ruled out. Otherwise, expect passing high cirrus as a
trough in the jetstream continues to funnel debris clouds from the
Gulf northeastward. Highs should end up a degree or two warmer
tomorrow than today, mainly in the low 80s away from the immediate
shoreline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure both at the surface and aloft will be centered to our
northeast through the period. This is slightly to the east of where
these features have been recently, and this will allow for milder
temperatures by both day and night. The center of the surface ridge
will also be weaker and closer than days past making for less of a
breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front moving into the Great Lakes area will start pushing the
high to our NE farther out to sea. Temperatures will continue to
average above normal and the moisture recovery that yesterday was
cited as often being too fast has backed off. Even Wednesday`s
possible increase in POPs due to the approach of a cold front have
been nixed to just 20 percent due to such limited moisture advection
ahead of the boundary. Looks like the late week boundary pushes
through with little fanfare other than a trend back towards
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence of VFR conditions through the period. High
pressure off to the northeast will maintain some wind in the
boundary layer with little in the way of moisture. Some
cloudiness may approach the coast from time to time but have
little to no impacts on aviation concerns.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail. May have
some patchy fog during the early morning over the weekend and
into early next week. Low rain chances return by midweek as a
cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday... High pressure north of the area will weaken and
shift eastward through the period, resulting in a gradual veering of
the winds from northeasterly to east-northeasterly with speeds only
dropping a few knots due to the weakening gradient. Wave heights
subside just a little due to the slowing of the winds, with 6-ft
seas expected to temporarily exit the vast majority of the coastal
waters by late tonight, except near the 20-nmi boundary southeast of
Cape Fear and the far southeastern portion of the coastal waters
from South Santee River to Murrells Inlet.

Saturday night through Wednesday... High pressure centered to the
north and east early in the period turning our NE winds to more
easterly. Wind waves and the less dominant easterly swell will still
combine to necessitate SCA through perhaps Monday night. Heading
towards the midweek period the surface pattern becomes more
progressive, relaxing the gradient and allowing for lighter winds
and headline-free conditions though waves will only marginally fall
below criteria especially NC waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...ILM