Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
633 FXUS62 KILM 180633 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 133 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Departing high pressure will lead to warming temperatures through the remainder of the week. The next chance of rain likely won`t arrive until this weekend with an approaching disturbance. Drier weather is expected behind the disturbance. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Quiet weather expected through the period. At the surface high pressure centered to our north will be progressing eastward moving off the coast. An inconsequential surface trough will develop on its SWrn periphery but remain offshore. The mid levels of the atmosphere will be due westerly around the bottom of a low moving through the OH Valley just south of the Great Lakes. The southerly component of the BL winds will bring seasonable highs today, perhaps a few degrees warmer. As we largely do not decouple tonight lows could be as mild as 10 degrees above climo. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Warm air advection continues on Wednesday as an area of low pressure moves through the southern Mid-Atlantic. Expect partly cloudy skies locally with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 70s. Moisture advection prior to Wednesday will have brought dew points back into the upper 40s and lower 50s, even as dry air moves into the area for the late afternoon and evening. Cool overnight, but not as much as previous days; expect overnight lows in the lower 50s or upper 40s. Zonal flow maintains a persistent pattern for Thursday, the only change being a little less cloud cover. Temperatures remain above normal with highs in the mid and upper 70s. A little cooler at the coast due to weak synoptic flow yielding to an afternoon sea breeze. Light south winds develop in the boundary layer on Thursday night. This will keep temperatures in the mid and upper 50s on Thursday night and could also allow for the development of some fog on Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Warm weather continues on Friday. With high pressure now sagging to our south and east, southwest flow increases during the afternoon. This will likely drive temperatures into the upper 70s to around 80. Weak energy aloft over NC and southern VA will produce some cloud cover for the afternoon. Ensembles still highlight uncertainty surrounding a weakening shortwave on Saturday. This shortwave will be moving eastward into the southern Appalachians on Saturday morning. An increase in precipitable water late next week could set the stage for rain chances across the Carolinas as the surface low tracks eastward with the upper level disturbance. Low pressure to our north will move offshore on Saturday night and Sunday, welcoming another period of high pressure over the eastern US. Again, flow aloft will remain zonal, so a significant push of cold air advection is unlikely. Expect dry weather and temperatures to be a little closer to normal Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure centered just north of the area will progress eastward during the period. Light and variable to calm winds through sunrise will turn to the southeast as the morning wears on and mixing deepens along the coast whereas inland winds will be closer to due south. Extended Outlook... High confidence in VFR prevailing. There is a small chance of MVFR/IFR restrictions both Thursday and Friday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... High pressure moving offshore will lead to a SE wind, with subtle trough noted along the coast. No long fetch swell energy expected anywhere along the East Coast meaning only the wind waves will be present, and generally at minimal values. Wednesday through Saturday... Southwest winds on Wednesday will gradually weaken on Wednesday night as a cold front stalls just north of the area. The cold front and attendant low shift east on Thursday. Transient high pressure remains east of the area into Friday morning, keeping winds light and variable. On Friday, high pressure settles to our south and east and southwest winds begin to increase. Locally enhanced gusts will be possible along a sea breeze on Friday afternoon. The next chance of rain will accompany a cold front on Saturday. Southerly winds increase ahead of the cold front. Seas generally 1-2 feet, increasing to 2-3 feet next weekend in enhanced southerly flow. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...MBB MARINE...MBB/21