024
FXUS62 KILM 082332
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
632 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the area will bring chilly weather until
it moves offshore Wednesday. After a brief period of seasonable
weather the late week period will remain cooler than normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Outside of sprinkles over the next hour or two moving across
northern parts of CWA as 500mb SW approaches from the west, rain
chances are done. Overcast skies will linger through most of
tonight, with lows in the 20s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure centered generally over the Great Lakes early
this afternoon will push southeastward across the Mid Atlantic
region late tonight into Tuesday, then off the coast by Tuesday
evening. Moisture overrunning the 2000 ft cool surface airmass
combined with lift ahead of a shortwave currently crossing the
southern Appalachians, is producing patchy light rain and drizzle,
which will exit to the northeast through late afternoon. Widespread
low stratus is expected to develop this evening, which should
scatter out mid to late morning Tuesday. 850 mb cold advection
overnight will result in overnight lows dropping into the mid-upper
20s most areas. Given a chilly start and overcast skies through the
morning, high temps will once again remain well below normal
Tuesday...generally a 43-48 range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
After a bit of a chilly start Tuesday night Wednesday will have a
seasonable afternoon for the first time this month. This is due to
the erosion of the wedge of high pressure that`s been in place
erodes rapidly and an approaching cold front induces southwesterly
flow. The prefrontal flow regime will allow for the milder
temperature but flow aloft will be WSW preventing much in the way
of moisture advection. FROPA Wednesday evening will thus be rain-
free and usher in a wind shift followed by moderately strong
CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
850mb temperatures back below zero on Thursday for highs that
struggle into the low 50s. HIgh pressure may build in sufficiently
Thursday night for radiational cooling that may require a
reconsideration of lows towards some of the cooler values. A
shortwave passing by to our north on Friday leads to some WAA
locally ahead of it`s weak surface reflection that is progged to
cross VA at night, the system still moisture-deprived this far
south. The mid level pattern will be of low amplitude late in the
period with temperatures remaining cooler than normal but not to the
extent of the past several days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR cigs are expected to prevail through at least 12z, with
ceilings around 1200-1500 ft. Stratus may lower to IFR overnight
through early Tuesday morning, with best chance along the coast
and particularly at KILM. Elevated winds overnight will keep
visibility restrictions minimal. With low pressure offshore
moving further away, a wind shift above the surface will aid in
clearing skies early Tuesday, though timing improvements to VFR
is tricky. Current forecast has VFR conditions returning around
14-16z, but confidence is low. After the stratus breaks up, VFR
conditions will prevail through end of TAF period. Winds out of
the north through morning around 5-10 kts will become light (5
kts or less) by Tuesday afternoon.

VFR expected Tuesday afternoon through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday... With a surface trough well off the Cape Fear
coast and moving ENE, northerly winds will continue through Tuesday.
The stronger winds are running a few hours later than expected,
however Small Craft Advisory conditions are still anticipated.
Latest guidance indicates 25 kt gusts north of Little River Inlet by
21Z and south of Little River after 00Z. The gradient will relax a
bit by late Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in from the
west.

Tuesday night through Saturday... High pressure west of the waters
weakens considerably Tuesday night into Wednesday turning light west
winds to the southwest followed by a marked increase in speed.  The
approach of a cold front will be responsible for the increase in
gradient and headlines will be needed Wednesday and Wednesday night.
The boundary pushes through Wednesday night bringing northwesterly
abating winds while steepening wave faces. Weak high pressure moves
offshore Friday while a warm front tries to organizes south of the
area, keeping winds fairly light.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...ILM