329
FXUS62 KILM 080711
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
211 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and drizzle will return today followed by dry weather for
much of the rest of the week. Chilly temperatures tonight into
Tuesday will rebound toward normal on Wednesday but may cool off
a bit on Thursday as a weak cold front moves through. After
bouncing back up on Friday, another shot of cold weather should
arrive next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Moisture overrunning cool high pressure ahead of a shortwave will
lead to PWATs 0.5-1" across the area this morning, with 1" being
closer to the coast. The ridging high pressure (as well as rain and
clouds) will lead to cooler temperature so have mixed in some lower
guidance for highs today ending up a couple degrees colder than the
NBM across the board. A shortwave will move through this afternoon
with light rain possible across the area. Into tonight we`ll see sub-
freezing air trying to catch up to the moisture that`s being pushed
offshore by building dry high pressure from the SW and the
retreating offshore front with low pressure along it. By the time
inland reaches sub-freezing the moisture is leaving the SE NC coast,
so we shouldn`t see any wintry precip with this setup.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold and dry high pressure builds down over the Carolinas on
Tues. After a chilly start, temps will only rebound into the
40s. Northerly winds will diminish through the day with another
cold night Tues night as temps drop off under clear skies and
calm winds. The center of the high shifts off the coast with a
southerly return flow setting up into Wed. May see temps level
off or even rise a bit as winds kick up a bit toward Wed
morning. Warming will continue through Wed in increasing SW flow
with highs closer to 60 and overnight lows a good 10 degrees
warmer than previous nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Shortwave digs down pushing a weak cold front through early
Thurs but looks like it will come through mainly dry with mid to
upper clouds only, but there will be a wind shift to the NW and
weak CAA, enough to keep temps a few degrees cooler on Thurs
and Thurs night. Temps will rebound again on Fri before a cool
down for the weekend as another dry front moves through and
strong high pressure builds down from the upper midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mix of restrictions expected through the period. For now it`s
looking like inland terminals will be battling IFR fog/CIGs. Coastal
sites are seeing a stream of clouds off the water that looks to be
holding major VSBY restrictions at bay but CIGs are still looking to
drop to IFR from SW to NE. There is a low chance of a passing shower
before dawn at the coastal sites but have opted to leave this out of
the TAFs as they shouldn`t be significant. Rain chances will then
build across the area towards Monday morning with CIGs dropping to
IFR at all sites and VSBYs most likely MVFR due to rain/mist through
the day. Improving VSBYs expected with a surge of wind and the
clearing of rain Monday evening though CIGs don`t look to improve
and fog may redevelop Monday night.

Extended Outlook...Improving conditions as dry sfc high pressure
builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...The increased PG between and offshore front with
embedded low pressure and high pressure pushing in inland will lead
to increased NNE winds over the waters, particularly into this
afternoon. Wind gusts ~30 kts and waves 4-6 ft will lead to a Small
Craft Advisory through tonight before building high pressure
improves marine conditions.

Tuesday through Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions will
come to an end early Tues with diminishing winds and seas
through the day as high pressure settles over the waters. N-NW
winds will back to the SW and increase Wed as the gradient
tightens ahead of a cold front. Looks like Small Craft Advisory
conditions should return late Wednesday into early Thursday in
SW winds up to 25 kts and seas building to 5 to 7 ft. Winds will
veer to the NW behind the front into Thurs diminishing to 10 to
15 kts. Winds and seas may increase again into the weekend as
strong high pressure builds down behind another front

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EST
     this afternoon for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RGZ/LEW