Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
923 FXUS62 KILM 301740 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1240 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift offshore this afternoon bringing a brief warm-up before a cold front moves through tonight. Unsettled weather is then expected Monday night through Tuesday night as low pressure moves through the area. A few strong thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, especially closer to coastal areas. Dry high pressure will return Wednesday through Thursday before rain chances return as another storm system likely impacts the area at the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front crosses the area tonight causing S/SW winds to veer to the N. The post-frontal CAA is not particularly strong, and with widespread cloud cover, temps will actually be warmer than those of last night...lows mainly in the low/mid 40s tonight. There is a low chance of a brief shower with the front, but forcing is transient and not strong so PoPs are capped at 20-30% most areas. Dry then for Monday as sfc high pressure builds in from the north, with high temps only in the low/mid 50s and breezy NNE winds. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... An active Short Term period is expected as a result of a coastal trough/warm front moving onshore late Monday night as low pressure moves quickly along the coastal plains during Tuesday. The inland progression of the warm front is expected to be limited given the track of the low leading to a 10F+ range in high temperatures for Tuesday from far inland areas to the coast. The low is projected to lift quickly toward DELMARVA by early afternoon Tuesday but given some instability and the strong low-level wind fields a few strong thunderstorms are possible. Isentropic lift will lead to the initial rainfall Monday night, with much higher amounts possible as low-level convergence increases during Tuesday with the low`s passage. PWATs are expected to increase to 1.6-1.7 inches which is anomalously on the high side for this time of year. Overall, QPF of 1-1.5" is likely, but could be higher if the eventual track of the low is a little slower. During Tuesday afternoon the deep moisture shifts off the coast leading to decreasing cloud cover and rain chances. Much colder air will be on the heels of the low`s trailing front for Tuesday night with lows ranging from the upper 20s far inland to the mid 30s at the coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wednesday will be much cooler/below normal as high pressure builds into the area. Time-height cross sections show a very dry column in place Wednesday through Thursday morning. PWATs will likely increase again late Thursday through at least Saturday morning as moisture may overspread a wedge with a coastal trough developing. Still too early for any specific details but the trend is for increasing rainfall along with much cooler temperatures inland versus the coast. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR to start off the 18Z TAF period. The low stratus from earlier today has lifted as southerly winds developed, to continue until a cold fropa occurs tonight with winds then veering to the N, and gusting up to 15-20 kt through the day Monday. Moderate confidence in MVFR cigs with the front at ILM where they were included in the TAFs, with lower confidence at the other terminals where VFR was maintained. Extended Outlook...A storm system moving up from the Gulf will bring lowered flight restrictions Monday night into Tuesday with low clouds possibly down to IFR, and rain leading to MVFR or worse visibility. ILM may also have LLWS on Tuesday in addition to possible gusty thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Sub-SCA conditions this period as a cold fropa tonight is followed by weak CAA, so that only occasional gusts close to 25 kt are expected both late tonight and daytime Monday. Seas predominantly 2-4 ft with some 5 footers out 20nm late Monday, a combination of wind waves and SE 8-9 second swell. Monday night through Friday...A coastal trough/warm front will move onshore Monday night allowing for the wind to increase as it veers to a Sly direction by Tuesday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to develop late Monday night and persist through Tuesday as the surface low moves along the coastal plains to near DELMARVA by early Tuesday afternoon. Winds will turn offshore by this time in the wake of the low`s trailing front. By Tuesday night high pressure will begin building into the area which will allow winds to continue to veer to a N-NEly direction, gradually weakening during Wednesday. Light/variable winds expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then another boundary moving across the waters Thursday afternoon/evening will bring another period of offshore flow. By Friday morning high pressure will build in from the north creating N-NEly flow with the potential for another coastal trough developing. Seas will be greatest with the Sly fetch ahead of Tuesday`s low, then a less dramatic increase late in the period with the N-NEly fetch Thursday night into Friday. Lastly, widespread showers and a few strong thunderstorms are expected across the waters during Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...MAS MARINE...ILM