Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
044 FXUS62 KILM 181821 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 121 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Departing high pressure will lead to warming temperatures through the remainder of the week. The next chance of rain likely won`t arrive until this weekend with an approaching disturbance. Drier weather is expected behind the disturbance. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak cold front will pass through the area Wednesday but will bring little other than clouds to the area. Return flow should allow for higher mins tonight with lows generally in the mid to upper 40s with lower 50s nearer the immediate coast. Highs Wednesday will reach the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... H5 ridging across the Deep South with zonal flow to the north will keep things dry in the short term for this part of the Carolinas. A weak front will be offshore this period with a weak perturbation possibly developing off the southern coastal areas. Low temperatures Wed night and Thu night are expected to be well above normal given lack of any cold air advection. Highs during Thursday will likely be just above normal as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Return flow will commence during Friday ahead of the next cold front slated for the weekend. Ensemble probabilities do not suggest much in the way of any QPF at this time as the front moves through. Still expect some instability to support convective weather Saturday and Saturday night. Zonal H5 flow across the Carolinas Sunday will keep things dry afterwards, with attention shift to potential upper low across the Central and Southern Plains Monday night and Tuesday. For the most part, temperatures will remain above normal through the extended period. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Light S to SE winds will become S-SW by daybreak Wed and may increase to 10 KT or greater by the end of the valid TAF period. Extended Outlook...High confidence in VFR prevailing. There is a small chance of MVFR/IFR restrictions Thursday and Friday morning and again Saturday. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...Light E-SE winds this afternoon will veer to SW and increase to 10 to 15 KT by Wednesday. Seas will run 2 FT or less through the period. Wednesday night through Sunday...The weak front will likely be south of the waters by Wednesday night, possibly stalling near the southern waters. NEly winds will exist north of the boundary, and conditions will be light/vrbl near it. The boundary may be able to push farther south assuming a weak perturbation doesn`t form along it. During Friday SWly flow will return as the old front lifts back to the north. The pressure gradient will increase during Saturday with some probability of Small Craft conditions developing ahead of a strong cold front. This front will turn winds offshore late Saturday then they will quickly veer to a NEly direction Sunday. Seas will be 3 ft or less until Saturday when the gradient flow is at its greatest. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...21 MARINE...21/SRP