223
FXUS62 KILM 010915
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
415 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring drier conditions behind a cold front
today before approaching low pressure leads to increasing rain
chances tonight into Tuesday. A few stronger storms are
possible, especially near the coast. Dry high pressure will
return Wednesday through Thursday. Rain chances will increase
again as we tackle another cold front and then an approaching
frontal system. Drying is expected into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*Hazards: Very Low risk for a damaging wind gust/tornado late
tonight near the coast
*Rain Chances: None today; High tonight
*Temps: Below normal today; above normal tonight
*Confidence: High today; Moderate to High tonight

Details: High pressure will build in from the north today behind a
departing cold front offshore. Light to occasionally moderate rain
will end by daybreak. Expect cool, dry weather today with a decent
N/NE breeze and a good bit of cloud coverage w/ temps staying below
normal, around 50 (inland) to around 55 (coast). The high will be
weakening in time as it gives way to an approaching upper trough
tonight which will spur low pressure development along the northern
Gulf Coast as well as off the FL/GA coast. A trough will then
develop northward from the aforementioned secondary low toward the
Carolina coast, possibly becoming a westward-moving warm front late
tonight as strong southerly winds try to shove it inland across SE
NC and NE SC. Expect increasing rainfall tonight as moisture/forcing
increase and this should strengthen the inland in-situ wedge of high
pressure which will help keep the front closer to the coast.
However, there is still some uncertainty regarding the frontal
placement so we`ll have to keep a close eye on this boundary as it
could lead to a few strong to possibly severe storms near the coast
as warmer/moister air gets advected inland. There looks to be plenty
of low-level shear/helicity as well as deep layer shear to support a
very low (albeit non-zero) risk for damaging wind gusts and/or
tornado if sufficient instability can materialize. Climatology would
at least suggest very limited instability will occur due to winds
coming across the cooler shelf waters. Should at least see some
beneficial rainfall, generally ~0.25-0.5" with some locally higher
amounts up to ~1" possible. Lows tonight should be a bit above
normal, generally ranging from near 40 inland to near 50 at the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Passing low pressure will bring a surge of moisture as well as
enhanced lift leading to our first decent chance of rain in a while.
Rainfall amounts will increase Tuesday morning as the low passes, 1-
1.5" likely across the area, highest amounts for the SE NC coast. In
terms of instability we`re not looking at much, most will be focused
at the immediate coast and over the water, but shear and SRH will be
very favorable. Depending on how the instability shakes out there
could be a small threat for an isolated spinner worst case scenario.
Due to the nature of flow around the low, subsidence and drier air
behind on the back side, rain chances should come to an end fairly
quickly once the low passes which for now looks like by Tuesday
night. High pressure will build in for Wednesday with lingering dry
conditions and little in the ways of difference in temperatures
outside of the coast, which will see warmer highs in the lower/mid
60s Tuesday and then +10 deg cooler Wednesday as the entire area
stays in the 50s. Lows will be near to just below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry air will remain predominant through Thursday with moisture
working its way back in late Thursday night/early Friday morning in
the return flow of the departing high. There`s still some
uncertainty but it looks like a backdoor cold front will push
through around the same time, slightly colder conditions setting up
for Friday with lingering rainfall chances through the rest of the
period as we are impacted by nearby low pressure and another
possible frontal passage over the weekend. Drier conditions are
anticipated into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z/01 TAFs: High confidence in VFR conditions through 00Z,
then moderate confidence. Dry high pressure will prevail today
with gusty conditions through early afternoon. MVFR cigs
possibly return around 00Z near the coastal terminals
(KILM/KCRE/KMYR) before spreading inland to KFLO/KLBT by around
06Z as some heavier rain quickly overspreads the area ahead of a
few low pressure systems to the south. A warm front near the
coast late could even bring a few thunderstorms to the coastal
terminals toward 12Z. IFR restrictions likely after 09Z,
possibly reaching LIFR by 12Z. LLWS also possible near the coast
late tonight but not mentioning just yet.

Extended Outlook...A storm system moving up from the Gulf will bring
flight restrictions down to at least IFR Tuesday due to low
clouds, heavier showers and possible storms (mainly near the
coast). Coastal terminals (ILM/CRE/MYR) may also have LLWS Tue.
VFR should return Tue eve and last through at least Thu before
another storm system will likely brings restrictions as early as
late Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High confidence this period. High pressure
centered to the NW will extend southward into the area behind a
departing cold front this AM. The high will weaken with time,
especially tonight when low pressure develops to the south with a
trough extending northward through the local waters. This will allow
northerly winds to veer to the E and then SE, possibly even to the S
by the end of tonight. Winds/seas will be elevated but mainly stay
below Small Craft Advisory levels until late tonight.

Tuesday through Saturday...Passing coastal low pressure dragging a
coastal trough onshore will lead to worsening marine conditions
through Tuesday night, a Small Draft Advisory out for near 25 kt
gusts and +6 ft waves. The system will be past us with northerly
flow into Wednesday ~15-20 kts behind the cold front, building high
pressure improving conditions into Wednesday night. Winds will
increase into Friday with a backdoor cold front and then a low
probability for Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday with
another frontal passage. Seas will be 2-3 ft come Wednesday where
they`ll remain until they start to increase ahead of the front into
Saturday, 3-5 ft currently forecast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/LEW