Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
040 FXUS62 KILM 220600 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 100 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warming trend continues today with an isolated shower possible. A cold front will move through this evening with drier high pressure and cooler, more seasonable weather for early next week. Another frontal system will affect the area the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak mid level energy is moving across the region, near the remnants of a surface boundary. As of 1 AM, this mid level lift has led to the development of some light showers across the region early this morning which should weaken as they move off to the east in slightly drier air. Another weak mid level wave shifted just to the north will follow later this morning (near sunrise). This will likely sit a little closer to the degraded boundary and feed on deeper moisture convergence. Given the trajectory of this area of convergence, expect this to primarily impact our northern tier counties. Showers should remain light with limited QPF. Showers are expected to come to an end around 9 or 10 AM. After morning cloud cover begins to thin a bit, warmer temperatures should result for the entire area. Pre-frontal warm air advection will bring temperatures into the upper 70s to near 80. A low level jet just above the surface could produce gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon. Patchy fog is possible late Saturday into Sunday morning behind the cold front. Lows in the low to mid 50s with cooler and drier air trickling in. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will be offshore Sun morning, although cold advection behind the front is weak to non-existent. It now appears the cold air surge will be delayed until Sun night, when the cold front associated with the northern stream system crossing southern Canada crosses the area. The second front passes dry, with barely a cloud to mark its passage. It will result in winds shifting to north- northeast Sun night as the cold surge arrives. Above normal temperatures Sun drop near to slightly below normal Sun night. Mon will be sunny and cool with north to northeast flow keeping temperatures below normal. Flat 5h pattern quickly shifts the center of the surface high east on Mon, with return flow setting up as early as Mon evening. Lows Mon night end up near to slightly above normal as return flow and weak ridge building in the mid levels bring about a modest thickness increase. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid-level pattern starts to become more amplified during the middle of next week as weak 5h ridge shifts offshore and broad troughing develops over the central CONUS. The surface and mid-level ridging shift offshore Tue, pushing a warm front north of the area. Cannot rule out some light precipitation with the passage of the front, or in the post front warm sector, but coverage will be limited with minimal rainfall given the abundance of dry air. Showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, remain within the realm of possibility in the warm sector and ahead of a strong cold front Wed and Wed night, although there are several limiting factors. Band of deep moisture is quite narrow and the forcing is well north of the area. This is a typical setup for nearly dry cold frontal passages frequently seen this time of year. There remains some uncertainty with respect to timing given run to run variations of the medium range guidance. More amplification of the 5h trough would lead to a delayed frontal passage and perhaps better rain chances. Bulk of the guidance is in agreement that any rainfall will be over by Thanksgiving, leaving a cold, dry airmass in place for the end of the week. Highs will end up a little below normal Thu, but temperatures then drop well below normal for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Boundary layer winds have kept fog just north of the area this morning and increasing low level winds should allow this to continue. A few showers are possible for FLO/LBT around sunrise. The light nature of these showers shouldn`t push VIS restrictions below MVFR and cloud bases should be VFR, although a heavier shower may bring a 2-3k foot cloud deck. Showers end this morning and clouds should thin for the middle of the day. Gusts up to 25 knots will be possible across the region in advance of a cold front this evening. Expect VFR this afternoon and this evening through the frontal passage. Dry air accompanying the front should keep restrictions and shower chances low. Fog is possible tonight behind the front with light boundary layer winds. Extended Forecast... Patchy fog is possible on Sunday morning behind a cold front. Chances for some morning fog may continue into early next week. Otherwise, expect VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Satellite and webcams observations show some fog along the NC coast, but it does not appear to be dense based on available observations. What little fog exists should gradually dissipate early this morning due in part to increasing low level winds. Winds continue to increase today in advance of a cold front, but poor mixing over the nearshore waters will keep gusts around 20 knots. A cold front will shift westerly winds around to the north this evening. A similar gradient following the front should maintain 15 knot winds overnight. Cooler air won`t punch through the region behind the front as one would expect with a typical cold front, so gusts should be similar initially then gradually weaken by sunrise Sunday. Seas build to 2-4 feet today and begin to decrease to 2-3 feet late tonight. Sunday through Wednesday... Northerly winds around 10 kt Sun into Sun night increase during the pre-dawn hours Mon following arrival of northeast surge. Northeast flow increases to 15-20 kt Mon before decreasing Mon night as gradient relaxes and winds start veering to easterly. The center of the surface high to the north shifts east Tue, setting up return flow by midday Tue which continues through Wed. Not much of a gradient behind Tue warm front or ahead of the Wed night cold front. Speeds peak around 15 kt with slightly higher gusts given limit mixing in the warm advection regime. Seas 2-3 ft for the first half of next week before building to 3-4 ft Wed as the southerly wind wave start to transition to a southeast swell. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...21 MARINE...ILM