Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
751 FXUS62 KILM 190054 AAA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Wilmington NC 754 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Departing high pressure will lead to warming temperatures through the remainder of the week. The next chance of rain likely won`t arrive until this weekend with an approaching disturbance. Drier weather is expected behind the disturbance. && .UPDATE... I`ve issued a quick update to the forecast to lower forecast low temperatures by several degrees near the coast where calm winds and mostly clear skies have allowed an impressive radiational inversion to develop. Veering winds and the development of a low level jet overnight may cause surface temperatures to flatline or even rise before sunrise across the coastal counties. I`ve also added some patchy fog mainly across eastern South Carolina for parts of Horry and Georgetown counties where shallow moisture advected onshore with today`s seabreeze could result in some lowered visibility after midnight. No other significant changes were needed. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak cold front will pass through the area Wednesday but will bring little other than clouds to the area. Return flow should allow for higher mins tonight with lows generally in the mid to upper 40s with lower 50s nearer the immediate coast. Highs Wednesday will reach the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... H5 ridging across the Deep South with zonal flow to the north will keep things dry in the short term for this part of the Carolinas. A weak front will be offshore this period with a weak perturbation possibly developing off the southern coastal areas. Low temperatures Wed night and Thu night are expected to be well above normal given lack of any cold air advection. Highs during Thursday will likely be just above normal as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Return flow will commence during Friday ahead of the next cold front slated for the weekend. Ensemble probabilities do not suggest much in the way of any QPF at this time as the front moves through. Still expect some instability to support convective weather Saturday and Saturday night. Zonal H5 flow across the Carolinas Sunday will keep things dry afterwards, with attention shift to potential upper low across the Central and Southern Plains Monday night and Tuesday. For the most part, temperatures will remain above normal through the extended period. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions should prevail over the coming 24 hours. There is a low potential for MVFR visibility in ground fog to affect the KCRE airport tonight but the bulk of near-term model guidance does not show any issues. Wind directions should gradually veer clockwise over the next 24 hours as a dry cold front dips southward across the Carolinas Wednesday afternoon. Extended Outlook...There is a low chance of late night/early morning MVFR/IFR visibility in ground fog Thursday morning, growing to a moderate chance on Friday morning. A low chance of spotty visibility issues will redevelop again Saturday morning. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...Light E-SE winds this afternoon will veer to SW and increase to 10 to 15 KT by Wednesday. Seas will run 2 FT or less through the period. Wednesday night through Sunday...The weak front will likely be south of the waters by Wednesday night, possibly stalling near the southern waters. NEly winds will exist north of the boundary, and conditions will be light/vrbl near it. The boundary may be able to push farther south assuming a weak perturbation doesn`t form along it. During Friday SWly flow will return as the old front lifts back to the north. The pressure gradient will increase during Saturday with some probability of Small Craft conditions developing ahead of a strong cold front. This front will turn winds offshore late Saturday then they will quickly veer to a NEly direction Sunday. Seas will be 3 ft or less until Saturday when the gradient flow is at its greatest. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE... NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...TRA MARINE...21/SRP