061
FXUS62 KILM 131826
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
126 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and seasonable weather expected through Friday before a
warmup into the weekend. Expect warm and breezy weather over
the weekend. A couple of fronts will affect the area early to
middle of next week with only a limited chance of any rain,
mainly on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Quiet weather continues through Friday as surface high pressure to
the southwest moves overhead for tomorrow. Another night of cool
temps due to lingering CAA, before it weakens tomorrow with ridge
over the Southeast. Lows Friday morning in the mid to upper 30s.
Lingering winds just above the surface will hinder ideal radiational
cooling, but could see traditional cold spots/sheltered areas in the
low 30s. Sunny and seasonable Friday with highs in the mid to upper
60s, with minimal winds due to ridge overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The high will begin to shift east and south Fri night with an
increasing W-SW return flow setting up for the weekend. Friday
night lows will drop to the low to mid 40s but temps will
rebound into the 70s on Sat in a warm return flow. With the
center of high sprawled south of the area, the winds will be W
to SW through the low levels. The 850 temps rise about 5 to 10
degrees C and should see a good amount of sunshine, although
soundings show some mid to high level clouds for late Sat and
again on Sunday as front drops southward. The gradient flow
tightens as a northern stream shortwave pushes this cold front
south reaching into the Carolinas on Sun and through the
Carolinas Sun night with little fanfare. The best mid to upper
level support remains north so do not expect anything more than
clouds across most of the area. Overall, a breezy and warm
weekend ahead.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A moisture starved cold front should be just south of the area
by Mon morning with relatively cooler and drier weather for
Monday. Weak cold air advection will keep temperatures about 5
to 10 degrees cooler than day before.

The cold front will not get much push to the south as a fairly
zonal flow will exist aloft. A shortwave and weak low may help
to bring front back as warm front with southerly flow developing
into Tues and warmer temps. This shortwave should pass through
mainly NC with best chc of shwrs remaining north of area on
Tues. The shortwave will pass offshore by Wed with a weak front
possibly dropping south with temps dropping back into the 60s.
Another system may affect the area with increasing clouds Wed
into Thurs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. Clear skies outside of a few passing cirrus this
afternoon. Gusts 15-20 kts will be possible for SE NC terminals
through around 21z before winds across the area become calm
tonight as high pressure shifts overhead. Winds remain light, 5
kts or less, during the day Friday.

Extended Outlook...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Benign marine conditions continue through Friday,
with ridging to the west moving overhead for tomorrow. Northerly
winds 10-15 kts tonight will weaken to less than 10 kts on Friday,
backing to southwesterly by Friday evening. Seas 1-2 ft through
Friday, combination of weak SE swell and wind chop.

Friday Night through Monday...
Fairly modest winds and seas Fri night will increase with
approach of cold front Sat into Sun. Winds will back and become
more WSW to SW Fri night through the weekend as the high
sprawls out to the south of the local waters. Looks like the
winds may kick up a bit earlier on Saturday and we should reach
SCA thresholds Sat night through Sunday. Conditions will improve
Sun night into Monday with subsiding winds and seas as cold
front moves south and east and weaker pressure pattern settles
over the waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RGZ/VAO