Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
962 FXUS62 KILM 192334 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 634 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move south of the area this evening bringing cooler temperatures Thursday. A warm up will follow for Friday and Saturday with a slight chance of showers. Another cold front will move through Saturday night with drier high pressure and cooler, more seasonable weather for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Shortwave tracking off the coast will drag a cold front south, but will get strung out from west to east as flow flattens out aloft and ridge begins to build in from the west. This will lead to a weak cold front dropping south through this evening but the southward progression should slow. Overall expect shallow cooler air bleeding in from the north creating a decent north to south gradient of cool to warm temps beginning tonight. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s north to mid 50s south. There is a chance of clouds affecting the temps on Thurs but basically mid 60s north to lower 70s south as high pressure extends in from the north with light northeasterly winds and front lingers to the south. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A frontal system will affect the area during this period, mainly resulting a cloudiness from time to time. The warm front will life north through the area Thursday night into Friday followed by the cold front late Saturday. It`s not impossible there could be a little light rain as the warm front lifts northward and showers in advance of the cold front. Unfortunately, the chances for a wetting rain are low and any rainfall will be light. Temperatures should be above normal through the period unless the warm front moves north more slowly than anticipated Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will build into the area Saturday night and remain through Monday before another frontal system affects the area Tuesday into Wednesday. The chances for measurable rain look a little better Tuesday and Wednesday as the attendant low coming from the Gulf Coast region may bring more moisture with it than the weekend system will have available. For the most part, temperatures will remain at or above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front is pushing south across the area currently. Light north to northeast winds are in place or should develop shortly. Scattered to broken VFR stratocumulus at or above 5000 feet AGL may linger through 02-03z in the KMYR area. There is a low potential of impacts from post-frontal low stratus clouds in the KILM area after 10z. Most (but not all) models keep this low cloud deck north of Wilmington Thursday morning. Northeast winds should veer more easterly during the day Thursday with scattered altocumulus and cirrus continuing overhead. Extended Outlook...There is a low chance of MVFR to IFR visibility in ground fog early Friday morning, especially near the KFLO airport. A low chance of MVFR/IFR visibility may develop again early Saturday morning for all local airports && .MARINE... Through Thursday...A cold front will drop south through the waters this evening with W-NW winds shifting to N-NE and picking up a bit behind the front. By midnight winds should be NE mainly 10 to 15 kts. Winds will remain NE as high pressure extends down from the north through Thursday. Seas around 2 ft will rise a foot or so on Thurs in NE push. Thursday night through Monday...Despite a fairly progressive pattern, the gradients with the associated frontal troughs and high pressure aren`t particularly strong. This should limit wind speeds to 15 KT or less through most of the extended period as winds veer from easterly Thu night to south to southwest for Friday into Saturday. A cold frontal passage will bring W to NW winds late Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure will result in N to NE winds Sunday into Monday with a turn toward the east possible late Monday. Seas should run 2 to 3 feet through much of the period with 4 footers possible ahead of the front Saturday when wind speeds will be at their peak of 15 to perhaps 20 KT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM...31 AVIATION...TRA MARINE...RGZ/31