317
FXUS62 KILM 101753
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1253 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An abnormally cold and dry airmass will bring the first freeze
of the season tonight. Chilly and breezy conditions will
continue through Wednesday before another cold front slides
through on Wednesday night. A gradual warmup will commence from
Thursday onward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold air is on schedule to make it`s main move this
evening as various satellite images show the strong vorticity center
now entering Kentucky and Tennessee. In the overall scheme of things
there is very little change in the forecast and hazards are locked
in with the Freeze Warning and Marine Headlines. Lows are expected
to reach 25-31 degree range with the growing season coming to an
end. It`s worth noting that boundary layer wind may distort
temperatures a touch to the upside but even the warmest scenarios
advertise several hours of at or below normal temperatures. I did
add snow flurries to Northern Parts of the North Carolina counties
from about 02-06 UTC. The NAM nest and other high resolution
guidance shows this signature. It should be emphasized this occurs
when surface temperatures are still above freezing and no impacts
are expected. Highs Tuesday will be in the  middle to upper 40s
under sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
With very dry air remaining in place on Tuesday night and surface
high pressure centered over northern Florida, lows are forecast to
hover within a few degrees of freezing away from the immediate
coast. Despite southwesterly winds around 5-10kts overnight, pwats
are only expected to rebound to around 0.40-0.50", and with the
primary moisture contribution being in the mid-upper troposphere,
some thin high clouds may be observed at the most.

On Wednesday, surface high pressure will remain centered over
northern Florida while another shortwave trough dives down the
backside of broader troughing over the eastern US. A surface cold
front will slide southeast in tandem with this shortwave, reaching
the area on Wednesday night. With the core of the coldest air mass
offshore, expect a noticeable rebound in temps, with highs expected
to reach the low 60s. Enhanced flow aloft will make for a breezy and
dry day, raising some concern for any outdoor burning in areas which
did not see rain with last night`s front.

The incoming cold front will slide through overnight, marked by a
return to northwest winds by sunrise Thursday morning. Overnight
lows are forecast to fall into the upper 30s to around 40F as some
moisture return occurs ahead of the incoming cold front, raising dew
points temporarily. The main effect of this front will be a
reinforcing shot of dry air with pwats expected to nudge back down
into the 0.25-0.40" range, resulting in another dry day on Thursday.
Winds will be considerably weaker though, and temps should rebound
into the middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid-upper ridging will amplify over the central US and shift east
through the weekend, with the ridge axis expected to be nearly
overhead on Sunday. This will result in a progressive warmup each
day with highs potentially reaching well into the 70s on Sunday. As
the ridge amplifies, troughing will deepen over the Atlantic, and
this may result in a backdoor front nudging into the Cape Fear
region on Saturday or Saturday night. However, overall dry air and
subsidence ahead of the incoming ridge should keep cloud cover low
and precip chances near zero through the period, even if a brief
period of northeast winds were to occur in coastal areas of the Cape
Fear region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. The
strong shortwave that will move across the area will bring
plenty of clouds and virga but profiles are so dry no
restrictions are expected.


Extended Outlook...VFR through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Gale conditions expected to develop later this
afternoon/evening with the strong shortwave moving across. There has
been little to no changes to the winds/gusts or seas for this
period. A small craft advisory will be needed in time for the
remainder of Tuesday. Of note strong offshore winds in tandem with
low tides Tuesday warrant a MWS for lower water levels mainly South
Carolina.

Tuesday night through Friday...A lull in the Small Craft
Advisory conditions is expected over Tuesday night into early
Wednesday as the gradient weakens and the flow settles on
southwesterly. However, an incoming cold front will help to
tighten the gradient again and lead to SCA conditions returning
from Wednesday morning into Wednesday night until the cold
frontal passage occurs, causing winds to turn northwesterly and
weaken late in the night. Winds slacken to around 10 kts or less
on Thursday and become variable through the end of the period
as high pressure shifts overhead and eventually is shoved
offshore on Saturday.

Seas around 1-3 ft on Tuesday night will rapidly increase in tandem
with the winds on Wednesday, reaching 3-6 ft by late Wednesday.
Behind the cold front, seas subside back to around 1-2 ft on
Thursday and should remain benign through Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/ABW