Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
578 FXUS62 KILM 212325 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 625 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The warm up continues into Saturday with a low chance of showers. A cold front will move through late Saturday with drier high pressure and cooler, more seasonable weather for early next week. Another frontal system will affect the area the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front will move through the area Saturday, bringing a chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Unfortunately, it looks like rainfall amounts will be light to none for most folks. "Lows" tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s will be closer to seasonal highs than typical lows for this time of year. Highs Saturday will reach the mid 70s to around 80. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Lingering showers are possible Saturday evening over the Cape Fear region - despite the best moisture sliding offshore earlier in the day, a potent mid-level vort max will push through the area. Thereafter, dry weather anticipated for Sunday and Sunday night as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW...also leading to temps both periods being up to 10 degrees lower than the previous day with weak CAA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term period starts off dry as the sfc high slides offshore and mid-level shortwave ridging moves through the area. A slight uptick in PoPs follows thereafter through midweek as moisture return flow develops along with weak isentropic lift ahead of the next cold front, which crosses the area Wednesday or Thursday (guidance continues to differ greatly on the timing of this) with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Dry then following the fropa to end the work week. Temps will follow similar trends through the week as PoPs...increasing through midweek then dropping towards the end, with highs Friday only in the mid/upr 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions should prevail over the coming 24 hours, with potential for brief MVFR conditions in showers. High-res model ensembles show sprinkles or very light showers possible overnight, mainly after 05z, as mid level moisture increases. Some heavier showers are possible in the Lumberton (LBT) area mainly after 09z, hopefully remaining just north of Wilmington (ILM) as they move east toward the coast between 12-15z. Another wave of showers an could accompany the approaching cold front late in the day after 21z, but odds of direct impacts on any specific airport are low. Extended Outlook...MVFR to IFR visibility is possible early Sunday morning in ground fog. MVFR ceilings and visibility will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a cold front. && .MARINE... Through Saturday... S to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT this afternoon will become W to SW by late Saturday. Seas will run 2 to 3 feet with 4 footers possible closer to Frying Pan Shoals. Saturday Night through Wednesday... A cold front drops through the waters Saturday evening, but followed by only weak CAA so a SCA is unlikely...winds 10-20 kt. Benign marine conditions thereafter early to mid week ahead of the next cold fropa, with winds consistently 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft - mainly wind wave-driven as any swell component is very weak. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...TRA/31 MARINE...MAS/31