


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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374 FXUS62 KILM 181748 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 148 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move offshore Sunday ahead of a cold front. Sunday night will see a minimal chance of rain as the front pushes through. Dry high pressure will return and dominate through much of the week. A dry cold front will move through Tuesday night, mainly affecting winds and temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... With surface high pressure now offshore and southerly flow in place for most of the area, warming trend will continue through tomorrow. Tonight`s lows will be almost 10 degrees higher than this morning`s lows, with forecasted temps in the mid 50s for Sunday morning. Decent WAA will bring warm temps on Sunday with highs around 80F. Southerly winds will be quite breezy, with gusts of 25-30+ mph possible in the afternoon and evening hours ahead of an approaching cold front. May have a few light showers move onshore from the south during the day Sunday across coastal counties, but not expecting measurable rainfall. Cold front is forecasted to move across the area Sunday evening into early overnight hours, with showers along the front. Since the bulk of upper level support will be north of the area with the lifting trough, coverage will be more scattered in our area and QPF is only around 0.1". There is a chance for isolated thunder near the coast late Sunday evening/early overnight when meager instability develops just ahead of the front. Dry air moves in behind the front and lows around 50F by Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will build in behind exiting cold front and will move swiftly from the Tennessee Valley Mon morning to the offshore waters of the Carolina coast by Tues. NW winds behind the front will be much lighter on Monday and will back and lighten as the center of the high shifts east. Cooler and drier air will maintain temps in the 70s on Mon and Tues. Inland areas should have higher temps on Tues with a warmer and moister southerly return flow developing through late Tues. Coastal areas may see warmer temps on Mon with the offshore westerly component to winds vs. onshore to southerly component off the water on Tues. Overall, a dry period with overnight lows on the cool side Mon night, with most places inland of the coast in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Although the days will warm in late October sunshine, temps will fluctuate a bit. A cold front passing through Tues night into early Wed will bring a slight chc of shwrs and warmer temps ahead of it with cooler and drier air behind it for Wed night into Thurs. Overall, the flow aloft will remain flatter most of the week and the center of the sfc high will migrate across the South Wed through Thurs, shifting offshore by Fri. The weekend weather may become a bit more unsettled as a shortwave and low possibly move across the south. Too far out to say with much confidence at this point. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR. Clear skies through tonight, with scattered cumulus clouds developing during the day Sunday. 5-10 kts southerly winds through Sunday morning before wind speeds increase with tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. Wind gusts around 20 kts forecasted towards the end of the current TAF period (~17z Sunday). Extended Outlook...Gusts to 30kts will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Brief MVFR conditions possible Sunday evening with cold frontal passage, with isolated thunder at coastal terminals. There may also be a few hours of LLWS late Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of and along cold front with S winds increasing to 30-35 kts at 2 kft. VFR conditions to prevail Sunday night through Thursday. && .MARINE... Through Sunday Night...South-southwest winds will be increasing in strength tonight through Sunday, with high pressure now offshore and cold front approaching the area late Sunday. Winds around 10 kts tonight increase to 15-20 kts Sunday afternoon before peaking around 20-25 kts Sunday evening. Cold front moves across the waters early Sunday night and winds shift to northwesterly behind it. Seas 2-3 ft tonight build to 4-5 ft by Sunday afternoon, with 6 footers possible in the coastal waters off of southeast NC Sunday night. A brief SCA may be issued for Sunday night for gusty winds and elevated seas, mainly for SE NC waters, before conditions improve behind the front. Isolated thunder is forecasted along the front as well. Monday through Wednesday...Winds and seas will be diminishing as cold front exits farther offshore and high pressure moves in. The northerly winds will back and lighten through Mon with seas dropping down to 3 ft or less by Mon eve. Another front will move across Tues night and expect a bump up of the winds and seas at that time coming down by late Wed into Thur as high pressure moves in. Overall winds will be NW behind the front Mon, then back slowly and lighten up through late Mon into Tues. The SW winds ahead of the front into Tues eve will come around once again to the N as a fairly dry cold front moves through early Wed. Seas may reach back up to 3 to 4 ft Tues night into Wed associated with cold front, but not expecting any SCA conditions at this time. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...VAO MARINE...RGZ/VAO