421
FXUS62 KILM 021817
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
117 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will return tonight through Thursday. A weak
backdoor cold front will drop south late Thursday. Waves of low
pressure will develop along this lingering front, bringing
clouds and periods of rain Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Isentropic lift-induced rain ongoing with frontal boundary just
barely off our coast (check out the almost 20 degree temperature
gradient across Onslow County). Hi resolution models now push the
rain offshore a bit faster as does the NBM so expecting things to
wrap up from west to east in short order. After 00Z forecast
soundings show dramatic drying with PW values that drop to 0.25"
from their current values of 1.25". And according to most guidance
this strong drying aloft translates all the way to the boundary
layer for rapidly clearing skies. This may be a tad optimistic
however given the deep inversion in place that only strengthens
overnight, possibly leaving a layer of low cloudiness trapped
beneath its base. Given that there is good agreement however and
that even the NBM9

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry high pressure will produce chilly overnight lows Wed night
and near normal highs for Thurs. Most places will see temps
near or below freezing Wed night and highs near 60 on Thurs with
a good amount of sunshine. The sfc high weakens nearly overhead
on Thurs as weak backdoor front gets pushed south through the
Carolinas as high builds down behind it into Thurs night. Looks
like the column will moisten from the top down through Thurs
night with plenty of mid high clouds streaming in from the W to
SW. This will maintain warmer temps Thurs night most places,
closer to 40 to 45 degrees for lows. But, wedge of high pressure
inland should keep cooler overnight lows in the mid 30s. Sfc
temps above 32 and plenty of warm air aloft will keep liquid pcp
over our area but places north and west may see some mixed pcp
Fri morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Column will moisten from the top down into Fri morning with
steadier rain developing into early morning as increasing warm
and moist flow rides over the top of very shallow cool air in
place. Expect cold rain with periods of heavier rain through
much of Fri into Fri night. The column remains saturated through
much of Fri night with drying through the low levels into Sat
aftn as low moves off into the Atlantic. This should put an end
to the rain, but looks like mid to high clouds will linger.
Another wave of low pressure should develop as shortwave rides
around the mid to upper trough in SW flow early Sun, but models
differ on the exact location, with some keeping the rain south
and east of local forecast area on Sun. Too early to tell, but
for now would expect good chance of clouds and rain possible
over portions of the area on Sun and Mon as shortwave passes
through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low confidence in the very near term as cigs are varying
considerably as moisture aloft is overrunning a frontal
boundary lurking just off the coast. Models are in good
agreement that a trend towards VFR will occur from west to east
this evening as low pressure moving up the coast drags the
boundary and its moisture out to sea. Over land that will cause
winds to turn to the west and then north.

Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail Wednesday through Thursday
night. Another storm system will likely bring restrictions
starting Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Frontal boundary nudged right up along the
coast bringing a pinched SWrly flow and the Small Craft Advisory is
ongoing. Low pressure is moving up the coast at this time and once
it gets north of the area wind will veer considerably this evening
and tonight, settling to northerly by midnight or thereabouts. A
slight downtrend in wind speed paired with the turn to an offshore
direction could mean that the headlines will not be needed as long
as currently advertised. High pressure builds into GA on Wednesday
easing the gradient locally quite a bit, possibly dropping wind
speeds to 10kt or less.


Wednesday night through Sunday...High pressure will weaken over
the waters Wed night into Thurs before a backdoor cold front
drops south into Thurs night. This could kick up the winds from
5 to 10 kts in a lighter more variable flow Wed night into
Thurs up to 15 kts in reinforced northerly flow Thurs night
into Fri as high wedges in behind front. A couple of waves of
low pressure should develop along the lingering front to
produce periods of rain, and possibly heavier rain at times. The
latest model runs show best chc Fri aftn into Fri night and
again Sat night into Sun. The exact track and strength of these
lows will determine if local waters remain in northerly flow,
but for now it looks winds should remain northerly around 10 kts
or so most of the period with seas mainly in the 2 to 4 ft range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/RGZ