972
FXUS62 KILM 111121
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
621 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly and breezy conditions will bring enhanced fire danger to
the area today. A gradual warming trend kicks in by Wednesday,
with winds decreasing Wednesday night with another dry cold
front moving through the area. Temperatures continue to increase
everyday, becoming above normal by late in the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation discussion.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Freeze warning remains in effect for the entire forecast area and
current observations suggest much if not all of the area will drop
below freezing by daybreak.

Robust shortwave responsible for the bout of showers and snow
showers Mon evening has now pushed offshore, ending any threat of
precipitation. Strong cold advection has developed in its wake
leading to a rapid drop in temperatures. Cold surge ends around
dawn, but the damage will be done with impressively cold air in
place. Under sunny skies highs will struggle to hit 50 today with
most areas ultimately falling short. Gradient remains tight with the
local area between high pressure to the southwest and a low over
southeast Canada, keeping northwest winds 10-15 mph. Abundant
sunshine will allow for strong mixing with very dry air at the top
of the mixed layer mixing to the surface, dropping afternoon
humidity near 20% in some areas. Winds at the top of the mixed layer
are on the order of 30 kt through early afternoon before they start
to gradually weaken. Not only will mixing bring dry air to the
surface, but it will also cause the strong winds aloft to surface,
in the form of gusts around 30 mph from late morning through early
afternoon. The very dry air in combination with the gusty winds has
prompted an issuance of a Fire Danger Statement for NC counties.
Although similar conditions will be present in SC this afternoon,
plant material is not as dry and state officials did not request a
statement be issued.

Cold air will not hang around very long. High pressure to the
southwest today, shifts east tonight. Winds back from west-northwest
to southwest in the evening commencing warm advection. Cold air will
stubbornly try to hold on and lows will end up about 10 degrees
below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet forecast throughout the short term period with moderating
temperatures. Highs rebound considerably into the lower 60s
Wednesday. Winds will back slightly to the southwest, and we`ll
still likely see some gusts up to 20-25 mph, but overall, it
shouldn`t be as blustery as what we`re expecting today. Relative
humidity values also rebound a bit, with minimums dropping to near
35%. Still not the most ideal fire weather day, given overall lack
of moisture and gusty winds.

Winds finally come down Wednesday night, and will veer to the
northwest as a dry cold front pushes through the area overnight.
Lows in the upper 30s inland, lower 40s at the coast.

Thursday, temperatures warm up a tad more, with highs in the mid
60s. Lows Thursday night nearly identical to the night before.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Still expecting to see ridging aloft deepen as it moves across the
central CONUS, pushing towards the east coast by late in the
weekend. This helps nudge an offshore trough southward across the
far western Atlantic over the weekend, which will push another dry,
"back door" cold front across the area Saturday. Front looks so weak
that it won`t have much impact on cloud cover or temperatures.

Overall, look for temperatures to bounce back considerably this
period. Highs in the upper 60s Friday become the low-to-mid 70s by
next Sunday and Monday. Lows in the low-to-mid 40s Friday night
become the lower 50s by Saturday and Sunday night.

By Sunday and Monday, surface high pressure pushes offshore, which
helps to bring in some modest return flow. Some very weak shortwave
energy traverses the area aloft, but doesn`t really seem to do much
to break the dry regime.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the valid TAF period. Gusty winds from the west-
northwest from mid-morning through mid-afernoon will be the main
concern today. May see gusts drop out for a few hours around
dawn, but after a few hours of sunshine gusts in excess of 25kt
will be possible. Wind gusts will start decreasing in strength
in the afternoon as strong winds aloft weaken. Overnight surface
winds will back to west-southwest as speeds drop under 10 kt.
Closer to daybreak on Wed wind shear may be a concern as
southwest winds above the boundary layer start to increase.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Gale Warning continues with strong offshore
flow in the wake of exiting shortwave. Wind speeds will start to
drop off around daybreak as the strong cold advection comes to
an end. No plans to change the 8AM EST end time of the gale
headline, but could see a need for it to be extended an hour or
two. The strong offshore winds will also result in blowout tides
this morning. Water levels approach -1 ft MLLW along the NC
coast and -1 to -1.5 ft MLLW along the SC coast. The Marine
Weather Statement for low water levels along the SC coast
remains in effect.

Once the Gale Warning comes down, a short duration Small Craft
Advisory will be needed, but by mid-afternoon, conditions
should be below any headline criteria. Offshore flow continues
into the evening before high pressure to the southwest migrating
east causes flow to back to southwest. Southwest flow will
start to increase around midnight as the gradient starts to
tighten up, but do not think headlines will be needed before
daybreak Wed. Currently seeing a large area of seas over 6ft
within 20 nm despite the offshore wind component. The gradual
decrease in winds this morning will allow seas to fall under 6
ft as early as midday and by this evening seas will be 2-3 ft. A
west- northwest wind wave will be dominant over a southeast
swell today with the wind wave becoming more westerly late
tonight.

Wednesday through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory looking more
likely Wednesday and Wednesday night. Southwesterly winds may gust
up to 30 kts at times, while seas range from 2-3 ft at the coast, 4-
6 ft up to 20 nm offshore. Wednesday night into early Thursday, a
dry cold front drifts through the coastal waters. Winds veer to the
northwest by Thursday morning, and the gradient winds loosen to
below advisory thresholds. Winds gradually drop below 10 kts
throughout the day, with seas decreasing to 1-2 ft. Winds more
variable Friday, becoming WNW at nearly 10 kts by Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/IGB