000
FXUS62 KILM 071852
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
252 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain northeast of the area through
Wednesday. A cold front late Wednesday will bring an end to the
warm stretch of weather beginning Thursday. Cool temperatures to
follow for end of the week, with an offshore low possibly
bringing rain, gusty winds, and coastal flooding to the area
Friday through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis shows high pressure offshore well to
the northeast, which extends back into the mid-Atlantic and the
Southeast U.S. Onshore flow has continued all day, allowing for
another round of isolated showers to pull inland from the coast.
A line of light to moderate showers is pushing northwestward
through the Pee Dee region, as of 2:15 PM EDT this afternoon.

More isolated activity expected later this afternoon and
evening, especially along and north of Cape Fear. This activity
should wane more after sunset tonight. Isolated to scattered
showers will continue along the coastal waters tonight, and some
may scrape the southeast NC coast off and on throughout the
night. Lows in the mid- to-upper 60s. Patchy fog possible before
and during sunrise Wednesday morning.

One more unseasonably warm day ahead Wednesday before the
cooling trend kicks off for the rest of the week. By Wednesday
morning, a cold front will be situated across Appalachia,
progged to push across the Piedmont throughout the day, and then
through the local forecast area and offshore throughout
Wednesday night. Onshore flow will continue to bring in some
isolated showers from the coastal waters throughout the morning.
Meanwhile, pre-frontal warming causes temperatures to shoot up
into the low-to-mid 80s for the final time this week. The
activity picks up by the afternoon, with a loose convective line
forming across the Pee Dee/NC coastal plain regions and moving
to the ESE towards the coast. Widespread dewpoints in the lower
70s will provide enough buoyancy for scattered thunderstorms
within the line, but forcing and mid-level lift looks pretty
paltry, so severe weather is not expected. The line will try to
make it to the coast by around sunset, though I wouldn`t be
surprised if it`s later than that, as frontal systems
historically slow down as they approach the coast. The front
will continue to steadily push offshore throughout the nighttime
hours, gradually decreasing the rain chances from the NNW to
the SSE. Drier air immediately falls in behind the line.
Dewpoints rapidly drop from the lower 70s to the upper 40s/mid
50s by daybreak Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet and cool Thursday with front well offshore and cool, dry
air filtering in behind it. Highs Thursday will be around 70F,
well below normal for this time of year, with some lingering
clouds during the day. High pressure wedge begins to build down
from the north Thursday, which will tighten the pressure
gradient and produce northeasterly gusts 20-25 mph. Low temps
Thursday night will drop down into the low 50s near the I-95
corridor and mid to upper 50s across coastal counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main feature of the long term forecast will be an extratropical
low pressure system off the Southeast coast. A potent 500mb
shortwave digs into the Southeast Thursday into Friday. Height
falls ahead of the shortwave will help spin up a low along the
stalled offshore front, east of Florida on Friday before moving
up the coast and off the coast of the Carolinas Saturday into
Sunday. Ensemble guidance still shows a wide range of positions,
and strength, for this low. Fairly confident in relatively cool
and breezy conditions Friday through the weekend, with elevated
northerly flow between the offshore low and high pressure
inland. Minor coastal flooding is also likely along our
coastline during each high tide into the weekend, particularly
morning high tides. Current forecast has showers late Friday
through Sunday with the low, especially for coastal areas, with
rain amounts dependent on the position of the low (closer to
coast could mean several inches of rain). Could also see an
increase in forecasted wind gusts for the weekend depending on
the track of the extratropical low.

The aforementioned 500mb shortwave is progged to merge with a
trough to the north early next week and slowly move off the East
Coast. Dry forecast returns for early next week, with temps
slowly warming to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Brief flight
restrictions down to IFR expected at KFLO over the next hour or
so, as a few showers move through the area. More isolated
showers offshore will periodically push onshore later this
afternoon and evening, with KILM having the best chance at
capturing similar, brief restrictions like KFLO did. By this
evening, confidence increases on more widespread VFR until
around 09-10Z Wednesday. From there, patchy fog may start to
settle in, with KFLO and KLBT having the greatest chance at
experiencing restrictions. Threw in 5SM visibilities at those
two terminals. High clouds aloft should keep the fog from
getting too thick or widespread. Whatever fog that does form
should mix out by 13-14Z. Back to mostly VFR through the end of
the period, though KFLO and KLBT could be an exception yet
again. Used PROB30 groups to represent the possibility of TSRA
from 16-18Z ahead of a cold front.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions likely Wednesday
afternoon and evening, especially along the coastal terminals,
as a loose line of convection sweeps through from the NNW to the
SSE ahead of a cold front. Some of the restrictions may drag
into the overnight hours of Wednesday into Thursday, depending
on the speed of the front. High confidence in VFR by the mid-
morning hours Thursday. Aforementioned front may stall offshore,
and could create periodic restrictions for the coastal
terminals throughout the weekend, due to rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday Night...Easterly winds at 10 kts very
gradually veer to the SSW by Wednesday morning, with gradient
winds loosening to near 5-10 kts. Seas at 2-4 ft continue. A
cold front will approach the coastal waters by Wednesday
evening, gradually moving through the waters during the
overnight hours of Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Winds
quickly veer to the NNE, and the gradient tightens considerably.
No Small Craft Advisory issued just yet, but we`ll likely need
one that starts sometime after 2 AM EDT Thursday. Seas follow
the same trend, increasing rapidly to 3-4 ft at the coast, and
5-7 ft out 20 nm from shore.

Thursday through Sunday...With front well offshore Thursday
morning and high pressure wedge developing inland, northeast
winds over the coastal waters will be strengthening quickly
early Thursday. Sustained wind speeds around 25-30 kts
forecasted for Thursday until around Saturday night, with slight
shift from NE to N winds Saturday as an extratropical low moves
north off the Southeast coast. Seas respond accordingly with
building ENE swell, with 4-6 ft early Thursday increasing to 6-8
ft by Thursday night and staying elevated through the weekend.
Could see 9-10 ft seas across the outer coastal waters (near
20nm from shore) Saturday, depending on strength and location of
the low pressure system. Will see an increase in rain chances
Friday through Sunday associated with the coastal low, with
slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow and high astronomical tides due to the recent full
moon will bring minor tidal flooding with each morning high
tide, and possibly the evening high tides as well, across most
of the beaches and along the lower Cape Fear River including
downtown Wilmington, through at least Friday. Forecasted tide
levels are highest Friday morning/midday, both along the coast
and lower Cape Fear, potentially continuing through Saturday
depending on track of offshore low pressure.

Rip currents: High rip current risk is in effect for east and
southeast facing beaches in our area due to 3-5 ft SE swell
continuing to impact our beaches. May see high rip current risk
return Thursday into the weekend for beaches north of Cape Fear
due to strengthening ENE swell and a developing low pressure
system off the coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Wednesday for NCZ107.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...