311
FXUS62 KILM 100016
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
816 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds, coastal flooding, and hazardous marine conditions
will impact the area as low pressure develops and moves along
the Southeast Coast to the Mid-Atlantic Coast Fri thru Sun.
Moderate rainfall is possible along the coast Fri night thru
early Sun. Improvement is expected late Sun into early next
week as high pressure builds in.

&&

.UPDATE...
Just some tweaking of the various elements...including upping
the wind gusts overnight into the 1st half of Fri, mainly across
the coastal counties and the coastal marine zones, highlighting
the 35 kt wind gusts over the waters. This based on the gradient
further pinching off as the closed upper low drops to the SC-GA
Coast and slows down to a crawl. Otherwise, just tweaking
latest obs/trends and massaging them to the latest overnight
fcst.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fairly seasonable through the period as high pressure to our
north progresses eastward. Wind will grow a bit lighter tonight
as mixing grows shallow but decoupling not expected. Tomorrow
turns breezy again along the coast where gradient gets more
strongly pinched between this high and the very beginnings of
low pressure developing over Florida peninsula. This will start
to overrun the high, this moisture generally being confined to
cloud cover that increases in coverage/lowers in height from S
to N. Rain chances will also slowly ramp up on Friday as well
from S to N but also from coast to inland. With current dry
dewpoints in place suspect that guidance may be a tad quick with
rain reaching the ground as a few hours of virga appear likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period will be categorized by the passage of
the offshore low pressure system from our south to our north,
primarily through Saturday. This will result in breezy NE winds
much like what we`ve been seeing, with gusts ~25-30 mph.
Rainfall amounts have ticked up as Saturday approaches, with the
SE NC coast now possibly seeing 1-2" and the NE SC coast seeing
~1". There`s still some uncertainty in how far inland moderate
rainfall will make it, but in general our NC areas will see more
rainfall than SC, and areas west of I-95 could remain mostly
dry. Thunder should also remain confined to the coast, perhaps
slipping a bit more inland for NC. Light rain may persist
overnight Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Come Sunday the low will be near Cape Hatteras where it will
continue north through early next week, rain chances coming to an
end. Ridging high pressure inland will bring drier weather through
the rest of the period with temperatures moderating a bit above
normal as we see full sun every day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR to dominate the inland terminals at FLO/LBT thruout this 24
hr period. However, at the coastal terminals, VFR to dominate
initially with periodic MVFR conditions possible from ceilings
and/or reduced vsby from showers generally from 10Z-18Z at MYR/CRE
terminals, and all 3 coastal terminals from 18Z-24Z. As pcpn
activity from off the waters periodically moves onshore. The
other story will be the gusty NNE-NE winds at the coast thruout
the 24 hr period. Less gusty overnight across the inland
terminals but picking back up during daytime Fri hours.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions to become more common and
continuous Fri night thru early Sun as low pressure off the SE
States Coast moves northward passing just offshore from SC then
NC late Sat thru Sun. Much improved conditions expected late
Sun thru Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday... Gale Warning in effect and will remain though
it`s going to be pretty borderline. Seas however will remain
quite treacherous not only on account of the wind speeds but
also the increasingly long NE fetch that develops as low
pressure develops near Florida Friday.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Hazardous marine conditions will
prevail through early next week as we`re sandwiched between
ridging high pressure inland and an offshore low. Gale Force
gusts should be ending at the start of the period with gusts
25-30 kts continuing over the waters through Saturday.as the
system surges to our north. There is a low chance that gusts may
reach Gale Force once more as the system comes closest to us
late Saturday into early Sunday, so I`ve adjusted gusts slightly
higher while still keeping them below Gales as confidence is
low at this time. Small Craft Advisory conditions may then
linger into early Monday before we see improvements, with
offshore winds gusting 15-20 kts and seas dropping from ~5-8 ft
through the weekend to 3-5 ft by mid Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are still quite high but now ever so slightly
falling. Morning high tides will still handily meet advisory
thresholds. The tougher consideration is whether or not
Springmaid Pier gets to moderate/8.5`. Conflicting issues:
astro-tide decreases, windspeeds stay elevated, but are
slightly veered and thus onshore. Coastal Flood Watch now in
effect for coastal SC.

Rip currents: High rip current risk is in effect for the beaches
of Pender and New Hanover Counties (ie. from Cape Fear North) of
NC and Georgetown County Beaches of SC. This will likely
continue into and possibly thru the upcoming weekend due to
strengthening ENE swell and slow moving intensifying low
pressure system off the SE States coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for NCZ106-108-
     110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     evening for SCZ056.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     evening for SCZ054.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday
     afternoon for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM