833
FXUS62 KILM 101825
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
125 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through tonight bringing in some chilly
air through Thursday. A warmup to seasonable weather Friday will
continue into a slightly mild Saturday. Arctic air arrives later
Sunday ushering in the coldest air yet this season through
Monday before moderation begins on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry southwest flow will prevail through this evening ahead of a cold
front trailing from a surface low crossing the Great Lakes. Wind
gusts should develop early this afternoon as mixing deepens and taps
into stronger winds aloft, with 25-30 kts expected at times.
Gusts will diminish through the evening, but a continued breeze
will keep temps from bottoming out, with lows mainly in the mid 30s.
Fropa is expected 06-10Z, with sunny but still cool temps on
Thursday, topping out a couple of degrees either side of 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures should be seasonable through the short term.  There
isn`t much in the way of thermal advection and the pressure pattern
will be quite weak so our seasonable afternoon especially is a
function of insolation. Mid level flow will be zonal/westerly as one
cutoff upper low in the NE lifts out while another starts to drop
south out of Canada into MN. The latter disturbance will shape our
upcoming weather changes in the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday`s weak flow remains in place Saturday but atop this layer
some WAA does kick in. This should allow coastal locales to hit 60
for the first time this month whereas inland locations may still
struggle to do so. Sunday previously looked to be one last warm day
ahead of the incoming Arctic cold front. Now the boundary appears a
bit faster meaning not only not another mild day but the forecast
high is tricky to nail down, literally hinging on the hour that this
front comes through since thereafter temperatures will start to
fall. And fall they will continue to do Sunday night as 850mb
temperatures are driven down some 15 degrees C from roughly 6 to
start the day to around -10 (or from 43 down to 14F). Forecast
soundings Sunday night do show a few knots of wind preventing
idealized radiational cooling. Though not idealized, it`ll still be
a pretty good setup. Guidance seems aware of this and has trended
colder and now has places not right up against the ocean within a
few degrees of 20. The proximity of the high will prevent deep
mixing Monday, nullifying the WAA going on atop the boundary layer
for a very unseasonably cold day where highs struggle to hit 40,
possibly threatening the record low-high for CRE (though our other
climate sites with a more robust database have much lower values).
The latter part of the period will feature a warmup that will be
very gradual at first but we may bounce back above climo on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR through the period. A low-level jet will produce wind gusts
to around 20 kts this afternoon, and LLWS this evening, which will
diminish after midnight.

VFR expected Wednesday afternoon through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into
Thursday morning as low-level jetting will lead to wind gusts of 25-
30 kts this afternoon and overnight, and seas building to 6-7 ft. A
cold front will move offshore in the predawn hours, and although
low-level jet will weaken overnight, the post-frontal gradient
should support 25 kt gusts into Thursday morning. Winds diminish to
15 kts by Thursday afternoon, although a few gusts to 20 kts may
continue north of Cape Fear through the day.

Thursday night through Monday... Light winds to start the period as
the pressure pattern will be rather poorly defined. A warm front
lifting through on Friday will allow wind and seas to build later
Friday but both stay well above any headline thresholds. Behind this
boundary we go back to a sloppy pressure pattern Saturday so expect
seas to abate slightly and the flow to become somewhat variable. On
Sunday a powerful cold front will push through building winds and
seas to advisory levels while wave faces steepen with the sharp veer
in the wind.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...ILM