Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
703 FXUS62 KILM 051810 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 110 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will continue through Saturday with front stalled offshore. Low rain chances return Sunday night through early Monday, followed by dry, cool high pressure. Rain chances may return for the latter half of next week ahead of another front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure is moving along a front stalled 30-50 miles off the Carolina coast. This low should be located east of Cape Hatteras by this evening. A broad zone of deep isentropic lift extends northeastward from where the southern extent of this same front is stalled along the Gulf Coast. Overrunning tropical moisture is supporting widespread rain with embedded heavier showers generated in elevated convection from 100-200 J/kg of CAPE when a layer between 800-700 mb is lifted. Models show the layer currently experiencing the best isentropic lift (850-700 mb) should dry out this evening which should lead to an erosion of rainfall, especially along and north of a line from Florence to Whiteville to Wilmington. Moisture below 850 mb will remain thick and it`s likely we`ll maintain overcast skies with periods of light rain or drizzle with fog through the night. Forecast lows range from around 40 inland to the lower 40s on the coast, only 4-5 degrees lower than early afternoon temps. The mid levels of the atmosphere should moisten back up during the day Saturday as a shortwave streaking east across Tennessee and the southern Appalachians starts to back 850-700 mb wind directions more southerly, allowing Gulf moisture to return. Although there shouldn`t be any period with completely dry weather Saturday, relatively low rain chances during the morning will surge to 60-80 percent from Cape Fear southward during the afternoon. Lumberton and Bennettsville may remain north of the zone of best moisture return and PoPs here are only shown at 30-40 percent during the afternoon. Temperatures should again remain chilly with highs only anticipated to approach 50 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Quite a bit of dry mid level air will be moving in from the west early Saturday night, bringing an end to rain chances, with only lingering low pops along the coast late Saturday evening. Moisture remains at the surface, keeping low clouds and/or fog around through Sunday morning. Low temps Sunday morning in the low to mid 30s to the north and upper 30s to the south. Below normal temps continue Sunday, though warmer than previous days with highs in the mid 50s. Could end up slightly cooler if low clouds linger into the day. Light rain chances return Sunday night ahead of the next shortwave with a weak surface wave moving up the coast, but moisture is shallow and lift isn`t particularly strong. Low temps in the upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Chance of light rain early Monday with passage of 500mb shortwave while a surface low moves across the western Atlantic well offshore. Wedge of high pressure briefly builds down from the north during the day Monday, combining with mostly cloudy skies to bring well below normal highs in the upper 40s-50F Monday afternoon. Dry high pressure persists through mid-week with continued cool temps, with lows in the 20s both Monday and Tuesday nights. Could see apparent temps in the teens Tuesday morning. Forecast becomes much more uncertain for late next week. Guidance has varied strength and timing of the next upper shortwave and frontal passage. Ensembles are showing a warming trend heading into the end of next week, but not much of a signal for any significant impacts. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Widespread IFR ceilings will continue through this afternoon, tonight, and into Saturday morning. Rain and fog is reducing visibility to 3-5 miles with visibility 1-2 miles expected during periods of heavier rain. Cloud bases in the 400-600 foot range could lower to 300 feet at times tonight. This is all due to a storm system moving northeastward just off the Carolina coastline. Rainfall may wane in intensity tonight, but a renewed push of rain is expected to begin overspreading the area from the southwest Saturday morning. This should maintain low ceilings and IFR conditions through 18z Saturday. Extended Outlook...Ceilings may linger at or below 1000 feet Saturday afternoon. Any improvements should be short-lived as IFR conditions should reestablish themselves across the entire area Saturday night through Sunday morning. Ceilings may scatter out some Sunday afternoon, however MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out. Another wave of low pressure moving along the coast could bring renewed MVFR/IFR ceilings Sunday night into Monday. VFR should return late Monday night. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...Low pressure is moving northeastward along a front stalled 30-60 miles off the Carolina coastline. Wind directions at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy have varied greatly today as the front oscillates across the buoy location. Within the coastal waters winds have remained solidly northeasterly today at 10-15 knots. Look for wind directions to back northerly this evening and northwesterly overnight as the low passes by our latitude. Rain and areas of fog will reduce visibility to 1-3 miles. By Saturday afternoon winds should turn westerly with speeds remaining generally 10 knots or less. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Offshore winds early Saturday night turn northerly by Sunday morning with front now well offshore and high pressure inland. Seas around 2 ft Saturday night through Sunday night, combination of E swell and wind chop. Northerly winds and seas strengthen on Monday as pressure gradient tightens between high pressure wedge inland and low off to the east. 20-25 kts N winds forecasted for late Monday afternoon into Monday night with seas 4-5 ft, with potential for 6 footers in outer coastal waters as NE swell builds. Winds and seas improve early Tuesday as high pressure inland breaks down. Trough offshore will bring SW winds to the waters Wednesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...TRA MARINE...TRA/VAO