Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
154 FXUS62 KILM 081040 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 540 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure offshore will prevail through most of the weekend, with unseasonably warm and muggy temperatures dominating. A strong cold front moves through Sunday night, bringing a chance of showers and storms with it. The first freeze arrives Monday night, likely ending the growing season for most. Temperatures will gradually moderate by the latter half of the week. && .UPDATE... Aviation section updated for 12Z TAFs. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Hazards: Very low risk for a severe storm near/west of I-95 late this aftn/eve *Rain Chances: Below normal today; near to above normal tonight *Temps: Above normal *Confidence: Moderate to High Details: A weak cold front approaching from the west this AM will stall north and west of the area tonight. This will keep SE NC and NE SC in an unseasonably warm and humid air mass with some rain chances, mainly near and west of I-95. Although we don`t expect much instability there may be enough to mix with strong deep layer shear to produce a damaging wind gust and/or large hail well inland late this afternoon/evening. Temps will be well above normal today in the mid to upper 70s most locales with not many spots falling below 60 degrees tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A broad upper low spinning near the Ontario/Quebec border will elongate and eventually split into two lows, with the southern cutoff low dipping into the Great Lakes region by Sunday night. This will help drive a potent shortwave trough into the Deep South and mid-Atlantic states, which will propel a pretty strong cold front from west to east across the Carolinas Sunday and Sunday night. Lingering showers and a few rumbles of thunder inland should push off to the northeast by Sunday morning, allowing for a lull in the activity. Rich southwesterly flow ahead of the front will allow for some considerable WAA, with highs flirting with 80 degrees by the afternoon. It`ll also feel muggy by November standards, with dewpoints rising up into the mid-to-upper 60s. This will help trigger some decent buoyancy and low-level lift for some scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. If you squint at it, there are some indicators of severe gusts within these storms, but the environment is not super conducive. While DCAPE values could be in the 600-700 J/kg range, and bulk shear looks to soar up to 50-60 kts, there`s not a ton of upper level support. There is some forcing up to 700 mb associated with a loosely organized convective line late in the afternoon, but the best forcing remains either locked up in the Ohio Valley and the Northeast with the surface low, or well to the west with the trough axis. That vorticity with the trough axis doesn`t even arrive until Monday night, well after the frontal passage and moisture presence. Ultimately, while we cannot rule out some very isolated strong to severe gusts, widespread severe weather is not expected. Front pushes offshore Sunday night, bringing an end to the rain chances. Significant cold air advection turns on immediately after, with lows dipping down into the mid-to-upper 40s for most. Some in the Pee Dee region may even bottom out towards 40 degrees. Coldest air this season starts to really sink its teeth into the area by Monday. Highs only get into the mid 50s Monday, with a stiff WNW breeze that may gust up to 25 mph at times. Monday night looks to bring a very solid freeze to the area, one that probably ends the growing season for most folks across northeast SC and southeast NC (the coast might avoid the freeze for now, but we`ll see). We`re still too far out to issue a Freeze Watch just yet, but it appears imminent in the next 24-36 hours. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Break out the hot chocolate Tuesday, as highs may struggle to hit 50 degrees in some spots. Air mass will start to show some signs of modification by Tuesday night, as winds back to the southwest. Lows dip into the low-to-mid 30s. At first glance, one may think about frost, but conditions look too dry and breezy for frost formation, so an advisory probably isn`t needed (that is, if any growing seasons survive the previous night`s freeze). Dry forecast ongoing through the rest of the period, accompanied by continued air mass modification as high pressure drifts into the Southeast. Highs in the lower 60s Wednesday become the mid-to-upper 60s Thursday. Lows each night in the lower 40s. A dry cold front sweeps through the area Thursday night, shaving off only a few degrees for Friday`s high temperatures. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions for most, if not all, of the 12Z/08 TAF period. A stalling weak cold front north and west of the area will keep SE NC and NE SC in an unseasonably warm/humid air mass with an increasing risk for showers and a few storms late today/tonight, mainly inland a KLBT/KFLO. MVFR/IFR cigs likely to develop toward the end of the period, especially at KLBT/KFLO as well. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected outside of a low to moderate risk of MVFR or lower cigs/vsbys early Sun due to low clouds/showers/possible storms. Gusty winds expected Sun ahead of a strong cold front which will bring a few showers/storms later in the day and Sun night. Breezy winds expected Mon through Wed. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High confidence. A stalling weak cold front to the north and west will yield mainly S/SW winds gusting to around 20 kt with significant seas mostly 3 ft or less. Sunday through Wednesday...Gradient winds out of the southwest increase ahead of a cold front. Frequent gusts up to 20-23 kts likely, with seas up to 3-4 ft. Cold front moves through Sunday night, allowing winds to shift westerly and then northwesterly by Monday morning. Offshore winds will temporarily bring the seas down slightly to 2-3 ft. By Monday evening, the gradient tightens, and frequent wind gusts over 25 kts look to bring about the possibility of a Small Craft Advisory Monday night into Tuesday morning. From there, gradient winds start to loosen, with westerly winds decreasing to 15 kts, and seas lingering at 2-3 ft. Winds back slightly to the southwest Tuesday night through Wednesday, where another Small Craft Advisory might be needed by midday Wednesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RJB NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB/IGB