Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
675 FXUS61 KILN 050531 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 131 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry conditions continue through Monday morning. Rain chances develop by Tuesday when a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Cooler conditions arrive behind the front for the middle and end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A large anomalously strong upper level ridge centered over the east coast will extend back into the Ohio Valley and will continue to influence the weather today. Warm and dry conditions will persist. Some patchy river valley fog is possible early this morning in sheltered areas. Any fog that develops will improve quickly after sunrise. Expect mostly sunny sky conditions with only few to scattered diurnally driven cumulus clouds. Highs are generally expected to reach the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Large mid and upper level will begin to be shunted east with a southwesterly flow developing Monday. After mostly clear conditions this evening expect to see an increase in clouds late tonight into the southwest. Lows tonight to range from the mid 50s northeast to the lower 60s southwest. Moisture increases around the periphery of the ridge with H8 20-25kt low level jet developing into the western counties Monday afternoon. Most locations remain dry Monday but can not rule out a slight chance of an afternoon shower - generally west of I-75. Warm conditions continue with highs in the lower and middle 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Monday evening, surface high pressure and ridging will be located off the east coast, with broad troughing across the northern plains and western CONUS, and a general pattern of deep-layer southerly flow from the southeastern CONUS into the Ohio Valley. By Tuesday morning, widespread rainfall will develop, with a pronounced stream of 925mb-850mb theta-e advection aimed into the Ohio Valley. While instability is expected to be marginal, some pockets of convection are expected to develop, although both instability and shear appear quite marginal in terms of any concern for strong storms. Precipitation is expected to come to an end late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, as a cold front moves through the region from north to south. Although the center of the surface high behind the front will stay northeast of the ILN CWA, its influence will bring subsidence and drier air, along with northeasterly flow. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be in the mid 60s to around 70. Confidence in forecast specifics becomes rather low confidence from Thursday onward, as the upper flow pattern becomes ill-defined. It is likely that temperatures will begin to rebound slightly from the cooler conditions on Wednesday. The precipitation forecast will depend on any additional disturbances developing upstream of the area, with low confidence on when or if this will occur. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A large upper level ridge centered over the east coast will extend back into the Ohio Valley and will continue to influence the weather today. Mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to some patchy river valley fog early this morning in sheltered areas. Have IFR vsby restrictions at KLUK and possible MVFR restrictions at KILN. Any fog that develops will improve quickly after sunrise. Expect only few to scattered diurnally driven cumulus clouds. These diurnally driven clouds dissipate with the loss of heating leading to clear skies this evening. Moisture increases late tonight in the southerly flow with VFR ceilings developing toward sunrise Monday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...AR