Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
200 FXUS61 KILN 131620 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1220 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak disturbance will pass across the region later today into tonight, offering a chance of very light showers or sprinkles. High pressure will return for much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mid-level shortwave will drop south through the Great Lakes today and middle Ohio Valley tonight, while a narrow, high-amplitude ridge persists up the Mississippi River Valley north into Canada. Deeper moisture remains to our west, so shower chances remain small and confined to our counties along and west of the Miami Valley. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Mid-level ridging will build east into the Ohio Valley as the shortwave departs. This will shut down any precipitation chances and lead to a warm, dry short term period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The synoptic pattern continues to favor an omega block persisting through at least the early part of the work week. This meteorological setup will continue to result in above normal temperatures across the Ohio Valley, with highs generally around 10 degrees above seasonal norms. Even though highs will be in the middle 80s to lower 90s the majority of the work week, dewpoints should mix out into the 50s most days, so the air won`t feel humid. Dry weather will persist with broad surface high pressure remaining in control. The H5 ridge that is helping create the omega blocking pattern will begin to breakdown around Thursday based on latest global models. This will eventually result in a cooldown by the weekend as a trough dives southward out of Canada. QPF footprint still not looking overly impressive in ensemble members from this system, with PoPs remaining in the chance/slight chance range for now. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will be maintained through the TAF period. Increasing mid- and high-level clouds could bring a few sprinkles or very light rain showers to western terminals at DAY, CVG, and LUK this evening, but will cause no significant impacts to aviation. Winds will remain light. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...