Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
299 FXUS61 KILN 141120 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 620 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Southwesterly flow will lead to above normal temperatures today and Saturday. Showers will develop Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as a cold front moves through the region. A cooler, more seasonable airmass will settle into the region behind the front on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Return flow will set up through the day today with developing low level southwest flow. Some very weak isentropic lift will shift east across our area later this morning and into early this afternoon. This may be enough to squeeze out a few spotty light rain showers or sprinkles. Otherwise, in the developing WAA, highs this afternoon will range from the upper 50s in the northwest to the low to possibly mid 60s in the southwest. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... In zonal flow aloft, mid level energy will move east across the region tonight into Saturday. In association with this, a strengthening low level jet will shift east into the upper Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes, leading to increasing moisture advection up into the region. A few showers will be possible later tonight as a weak warm front lifts north across our area. A better chance for rain will then develop through the day on Saturday as a weak cold front pushes southeast into our area. During the daytime period, instability looks to remain marginal at best so the better chance for any embedded thunderstorms should hold off through Saturday afternoon. With the strengthening low level jet and a tightening pressure gradient, breezy conditions will develop on Saturday with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible by afternoon. Temperatures tonight will be mild with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs on Saturday will be well above normal, mostly in the 65 to 70 degree range. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The well talked about area of occluded low pressure will be continuing its progress through Canada, toward the Hudson Bay. The system will be in the process of pulling a cold front through the ILN CWA near the start of the extended period. Forecast soundings are still indicating that some weak surface instability (and even some elevated) will be present Saturday evening, primarily for central and eastern Ohio/ northern Kentucky. As such, have introduced thunder into the grids for Saturday evening. A 50+ knot LLJ will provide plenty of shear, so cannot rule out an isolated strong storm in the areas mentioned, though overall instability profile is limited and messy. Nevertheless, BUFKIT momentum transfer still holds on to 30+ knot gusts well past sunset, so the thinking is that even without strong "storms," showers moving through may have enough downward momentum transfer to blow things around. After the cold front passes, we dry out yet again for Sunday and Monday, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures near seasonal norms in the 50s. As we go toward mid-week, quasi zonal flow sets up and several shortwave disturbances move through the flow. The first of which, will move through Monday night into Tuesday. Guidance seems to have shifted this wave slightly more north since previous runs, taking it right through the CWA. This has substantially increased PoPs Monday evening into Tuesday. Thermal profiles indicate that mostly rain is expected at this time, though a brief transition to snow may be possible by Tuesday late. After this, long range ensembles get quite muddled. There does appear to be a signal for an active pattern, with multiple waves and shortwaves moving through the larger flow. However, details on placement and timing are limited, due to significant spread and variability between guidance. Either way, a wetter pattern definitely seems to be on the horizon. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Isolated to scattered showers will shift east across southern portions of our area this morning in association with a quick shot of weak isentropic lift. Otherwise, expect to see mid level clouds persist through much of the day. Some partial clearing may develop heading into this evening, but clouds will move back in overnight as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. Cigs will be primarily VFR but they will begin to trend toward MVFR toward the end of the TAF period. Meanwhile, a strengthening low level jet will result in some marginal LLWS later tonight into Saturday morning, especially at the southern TAF sites. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday into Saturday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL