217
FXUS61 KILN 110100
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
800 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong system will move through today bringing with it a transition
from rain to snow showers, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures.
A couple of systems Thursday night into Friday morning and Saturday
into Saturday night are both expected to bring accumulating snow to
the region. Very cold air will filter in bringing near or below zero
wind chill values both Sunday and Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Evening update (8pm)...
Temperatures continue to fall across the area from the mid and upper
30s to the lower 30s. A combination of rain-snow mix is shifting
southeastward into northeast Kentucky and southern Ohio this evening,
and will eventually result in all-snow precipitation types during
the overnight. An SPS for light snowfall accumulations is currently
posted area wide for tonight and Thursday morning. While a weak
shortwave may provide some periods of light snow to the area, any
concentration of snow showers will likely be the main concern for
slick travel. At this time, the best corridor is stretching
southeastward from Lake Michigan, moving into eastern Indiana and far
western Ohio this evening. Depending on the longevity of this band,
localized accumulations up to a half inch are occurring, resulting in
slick spots to roadways. The area of most concern is currently from
Wayne County Indiana through Hamilton County Ohio and as far south as
Mason County Kentucky. Will continue to monitor local road
conditions through the evening hours there for potential more
localized SPS issuances...

Updates regarding the winter weather advisory for Thursday evening
through Friday morning can be found in the Short Term Section.


Previous discussion (133pm)... A gap in precip behind an enhanced
band with wind gusts from 30-40kts currently near KCMH to just east
of KLUK. Falling temperatures working into the forecast area, with a
rain/snow shower mix with wind gusts to 35kts in the cold air
advection wrap around moisture. Wind gusts 30-35kts are more likely
now behind the main frontal boundary, with a changeover to all snow
showers after 4pm working east through the area. Moisture does
diminish pretty quickly, but still the potential for a very light
coating of a tenth or two of snow especially on elevated surfaces as
the evening progresses. Continued the SPS for winds and slick
surfaces through 00z for now, as well as expecting to continue
mention of these in the HWO.

Strong CAA and diminishing wind gusts overnight under cloudy skies
as the upper trough pivots through the region. Overnight lows in the
lower 20s north to upper 20s south. Moisture becomes more sparse
overnight, so snow showers will diminish in coverage. Wind gusts
will diminish overnight, but winds remain slightly elevated near
10mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Winter weather advisory update (8pm)...
After coordination with surrounding offices, it was decided that
confidence is high enough over a specific stretch of the Ohio Valley
to issue a winter weather advisory this evening for the snow expected
Thursday evening through Friday morning. The latest 19Z NBM outlines
an area of >3" of snow accumulation at 60 to 80% from southeastern
Indiana, northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. Therefore, the advisory
issued this evening generally falls within the counties that
currently have a 3" forecast. An expansion to the advisory is
certainly probable given lower snowfall amounts will still lead to
travel impacts Friday morning. Confidence decreases farther north up
I-75 and I-71, but that may change in the next 12 hours. For now,
this advisory is the "first call" based on the 24 hour onset period
for impacts and the highest confidence. Remain updated for changes
over the next few forecast cycles.


Previous discussion (133pm)...
A brief lull in precip expected on Thursday, though per several of
the CAMs, continued with at least a slight chance of snow showers in
central Ohio in NW flow bringing a fetch off of Lake Michigan. With
the continued NW flow/strong CAA, much below normal daytime highs in
the upper 20s to lower 30s.

For Thursday night, chance for snow ramps up especially near/after
midnight in eastern Indiana, exiting the area near/after 15z, with
the prime accumulation potential time from ~06z-12z. The best area
of moisture of 0.2-0.3" is expected generally across SE Indiana
through the Cincinnati Tri state and eastward to the lower Scioto
valley, which has shifted the probability of exceeding both 1" and
2" of snow a little further south, with prime location extending
from near Richmond, IN and southeast toward Hamilton/Cincinnati Ohio
and into far northern KY. This remains the prime area with the
greatest probability of 2"+ of snow accumulation by 15z.

Lesser chances of these thresholds occurring in Central Ohio. The
system is fairly progressive, and some slight downward adjustments
made from the NBM SLRs to a little closer to the WPC SLRs, generally
11-13:1 across the south, and 13-16:1 closer to I-70. The resulting
snow potential will have a pretty tight gradient across the region.
Another possibility/uncertainty which could cut a bit into snow
totals across the south is a warm air push beginning near 12z, with
temperatures rising through the mid 30s across the south in the
12-17z timeframe. So a mix with or complete changeover to rain is
possible as the core area of precip is winding down/heading east.

Bulk of the accumulating snowfall will shift eastward after 15z
Friday, with colder/dry air funneling into the Ohio Valley for the
weekend, with high confidence in these bitterly cold temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A brief period of cold and dry weather is expected from Friday night
through Saturday morning before the next system arrives later on
Saturday.

By the second half of Saturday, an arctic front and upper level
disturbance will be diving toward the Ohio Valley from the
northwest. Just ahead of these features, an area of snow develops
and moves across the area starting Saturday afternoon/evening before
pulling east by Sunday morning. A widespread 1-3 inches are
moderately likely although the heaviest axis of snow has yet to be
resolved. There are also some indications that snow rates and ratios
could be fairly high north of I-70 with vorticity max moving in along
with the arctic boundary.

Bitterly cold air settles in from Saturday night through Monday
morning. Overnight lows drop into the single digits for many
locations along with wind chills below zero Sunday and Monday
mornings. High struggle to get out of the teens.

Temperatures moderate to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Precipitation continues to change from rain-snow mix to snow this
evening, especially across the Columbus area. Otherwise, temperatures
continue to drop and snow chances will persist through the
overnight. MVFR CIGs are now more widespread, and that is expected to
remain the case for much of the TAF period. Some breaks are possible
at times. In heavier snow showers, some IFR/MVFR CIGs and VIS are
briefly going to occur. PROB30s have been used to provide that timing
late this evening and into the early overnight.

Winds remain elevated with regular gusts still in the mid to upper
20s. Occasional 30 knot gusts are also being observed. Have these
winds trending downward through the overnight and into the day on
Thursday.

Attention shifts to the incoming clipper system Thursday evening and
into the overnight. Have added mention of low CIGs/VIS and snow in
the 30-hour TAF. At this time, the highest confidence for a longer
duration period of snow is for CVG/LUK. The farther north, the lower
the confidence. ILN/DAY should expect some snow, but there is at
least some potential for CMH/LCK to remain mostly dry. Trends will
continue to be monitored.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Thursday night through
Saturday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for
     OHZ077>079-081-088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for
     KYZ089>100.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for
     INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...JDR/McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...McGinnis