Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
941 FXUS61 KILN 071817 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 117 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening cold front will cross the area this afternoon. Low pressure and another cold front will move through Saturday night into Sunday morning. A brief cold snap will ensue for early next week with the potential for the first light snow accumulations of the season. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Short wave over the mid Mississippi Valley at midday will push across the area early this evening quickly followed by a secondary short wave dropping out of the upper Midwest. At the surface a weakening cold front will cross the region with the initial short wave. Weak instability out ahead of this could allow for the development of additional showers and possibly some thunder, especially for northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and far southern Ohio. Clouds will clear out in the wake of this system during the evening. The secondary short wave will lay out an east-west front that may slide into the northern part of the area before the end of the night. There could be some additional clouds with this feature. Lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A robust short wave in the northern Plains at the start of the period will drop southeast on Saturday and then head more easterly Saturday night bringing it across the Ohio Valley. A compact surface low will track along a stalled east-west front, with the model consensus taking this low from east central Indiana into central Ohio Saturday night. Expect rain along and north of the low track. Chances of rain will decrease further south along the trailing cold front. There is some potential for enough cold air to come in on the back side of the low to cause a mix or change to snow in west central Ohio before precipitation moves off. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short wave and associated surface low may still be near central Ohio at the start of the period. But that will quickly move off to the east. So any lingering precipitation will end early Sunday. Well advertised high amplitude trough will swing south late Sunday and then pivot across the region Sunday night into Monday. There is still some variance in the guidance suite regarding the amplitude at the base of the trough as it moves through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This trough will be quite progressive. So even though there is increasing spread in how fast the trough lifts out, it will be east of the area by Tuesday. In the low levels, there will be deep northwest flow. A couple of subtle troughs may swing through the region. Overall forcing will result in scattered to numerous showers starting Sunday afternoon with the precipitation type changing from rain to snow late Sunday into Sunday evening as temperatures drop. It looks like some light accumulations may occur Sunday night with the possibility of slightly higher amounts in west central Ohio with a band likely streaming off of Lake Michigan. The precipitation will end as the flow backs to more westerly Monday into Monday night. Any further accumulation should be quite limited. But temperatures will be well below normal in a brief cold snap. Mid level pattern will become rather stable with long wave troughing over eastern Canada into New England with ridging across the western US. This will leave the region in broad west northwest flow. A surface high will be centered off to the southwest which will result in southwest to west low level flow. This is a dry pattern with temperatures rebounding near normal. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR to IFR ceilings across the region will continue for the early part of the period. Some additional showers and possibly even a thunderstorm will remain possible. Chance of precipitation will end and ceilings will quickly lift and scatter as a weakening cold front crosses the region. Not much of a change in wind direction although speeds will decrease. There is some potential for shallow fog at KLUK overnight, otherwise VFR will prevail for the rest of the period. Winds will remain below 10 kt. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are likely late Saturday night into Sunday with IFR ceilings possible. MVFR ceilings will likely linger into Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...