Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
038 FXUS61 KILN 081740 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1240 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley will bring rain to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A much colder airmass will settle into the region later this week and into the weekend, along with occasional chances for snow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Snow in our far southeast will continue to taper off through mid afternoon as surface high pressure pushes southeast across our area. The lower clouds across our south should gradually scatter out as we head through the afternoon, but some mid and high level clouds will persist at times through tonight. Lows tonight will be mostly in the teens. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weak mid level energy will track east across the southern Great Lakes through the day on Tuesday. Suppose it will be tough to rule out a few light showers or flurries across our far northern areas with this, but the better chance for any measurable pcpn should remain off to our north. With a tightening pressure gradient, southwest winds will become breezy through the day. Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid 30s far north to the lower 40s in our south. A stronger mid level short wave will drop southeast across the upper Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley Tuesday night. There are some timing and placement issues between the models with this feature but in general, an associated surface low will move across the western Great Lakes region through Tuesday night. Ahead of this, the pressure gradient will continue to tighten with a strengthening 40-60 knot 850 mb jet shifting east into our area late. With increasing moisture advection and low level convergence, rain will develop overnight and become fairly widespread by late in the night. In the developing WAA pattern, temperatures will not drop off much and may even slowly rise through the night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Axis of s/w energy in Ohio Valley is pushing east within l/w trough in eastern 1/3 of U.S. This will continue to produce rain during the morning as a strong cutoff sfc low moves ewd in the srn GtLks. A cold front will cross the region w-e during the afternoon, reaching the PA/OH border in the evening. Falling heights behind the front will change any precip to snow before ending in the evening. While most of the precip will already have been wrung out, lingering showers with lake enhanced banding will be found with the influx of cold air overturning in the lower atmosphere. This overturning will be present through Thursday, but any appreciable snowfall will have ended well before daybreak with light/isolated snow showers during the day. Overnight, high pressure noses in from nw-se and battles an intrusion of low pressure from the sw (likely a leading warm frontal boundary). This looks to show less chance in my ne CWA and more of a chance in the sw. Pops aren`t overly high but it was my thought that this gradient should be more pronounced. After this time, models show larger differences in sensible wx/synoptic pattern. Higher pops during the day Fri look overdone, and there are indications of a clipper system tracking towards the region for Sat. One area of concurrence between the models is on Sunday, where high pressure builds into the region from daybreak Sun to daybreak Mon. Mild temps 40-45 are found on Wed ahead of the front, then fall to the upper 20s/mid 30s for Thu and Fri. Sat and Sun look a bit on the ugly side with highs in the mid teens to mid 20s. Temperature rebound on Monday looks to be overly optimistic but not unreasonable with a 10-12 deg bump from Sun. Lows in the mid 20s Wed night drop into the low 20s/upper teens north of the Ohio on Thurs night. Teens on Friday night then fall to the single digits/lower teens for Sat/Sun nights. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Lingering snow will continue to shift off to our southeast with low clouds across our south slowly eroding away through this afternoon/early evening. High pressure will shift southeast across the area overnight with mainly just some mid and high level clouds expected at times. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten up through the day on Tuesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. This will lead to increasing southerly winds through the day with some gust of 25 to 30 knots possible through the afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Wednesday through Friday. Gusty winds in excess of 35kts possible Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...JGL