470
FXUS61 KILN 201136
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
636 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off to the east, although clouds will be
stubborn. Rain will spread back into the area late tonight and
continue into Friday night as an area of low pressure moves through
the region. High pressure will build in for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Moisture trapped under an inversion will keep stratus across the area
through most of the day. There are indications that low level
moisture could become shallow enough to allow clouds to break across
southern counties later in the afternoon, although there is not a
tremendous amount of confidence in that. And even if these clouds
break, a higher deck of clouds will already be overspreading the
region by that point. Fog will diminish this morning. Forecast highs
are probably optimistic, especially for where stratus hangs tough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave lifting into the central Plains tonight will then slide
east in confluent flow between a northern stream low tracking across
eastern Canada and broad southern stream ridging along the Gulf. This
will generate a weak surface low, most likely moving across
Kentucky, although it could end up a bit further north across
southern parts of Indiana and Ohio.

Warm front out ahead of the low will lift into the area on Friday.
The low will pass the area Friday afternoon and evening with a
trailing cold front clearing the area by daybreak Saturday. Rain will
develop north of the warm front, possibly getting into the Tri-State
late tonight. Rain will overspread the area on Friday and once it
develops, it will be fairly persistent until the latter part of
Friday night. There will be a corridor of higher rainfall near the
surface low track. With still some variability in guidance where this
will be, will keep a somewhat broad brush potential in the HWO near
and south of I-70, although at this point, further south near the
Ohio River seems more likely.

Persistent cloud cover will keep a narrowed diurnal range with
temperatures above normal, except in west central Ohio where cooler
air will move in Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Passage of short wave will bring precipitation to an end by early
Saturday. A dry period will ensue into early next week with surface
high pressure. Broad northwest flow in the northern stream will move
off allowing a short wave length ridge to translate across the
region on Monday. This is in advance of a southern stream short wave
that will be deamplifying as it pushes northeast.

There is some spread in timing with this system. Broadly speaking,
GFS ensemble members are fairly evenly split on a faster vs slower
solution while more ECMWF ensemble members are on the slower side to
varying degrees. This will affect how quickly rain moves in and out
of the region between late Monday and Tuesday night. Associated
surface low pressure will most likely pass northwest of the forecast
area. Initial rain will occur as a warm front extending out ahead of
the low moves into and then lifts across the area. Rain will occur
until a cold front trailing the low slides through. While ensemble
clusters average out any heavier rainfall, there are indications
that some heavier, convectively enhanced, rain could develop in the
mid South and then push up through Kentucky into southern Ohio. Well
too early for any specifics, but it is just something to keep an eye
on.

Wednesday will be a transition day as all guidance show the southern
stream short wave has moves off to the northeast while a robust
northern stream short wave digs into the Plains. Being between
systems, expect dry conditions.

No significant temperature changes with readings remaining near to
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stratus will be persistent, although ceilings will gradually improve.
Visibility restrictions in fog will diminish over the early part of
the period. Have tentatively brought ceilings up to MVFR by around
20Z. It still looks like stratus may temporarily break at the
Cincinnati terminals, possibly making it to KILN. But confidence in
occurrence or timing remains on the lower end. Ceilings will then
start to lower back to IFR late in the period.

OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR ceilings with MVFR/IFR visibilities Friday into
Friday night. MVFR ceilings may persist into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...