Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
340 FXUS61 KILN 090725 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 225 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A few lights snow showers will be possible across northern portions of the region this morning. A strong system will bring primarily rain to start tonight and then snow and windy conditions to the region on Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Another system is expected to bring accumulating snow to the region Thursday night into Friday, with yet another system coming in as the day progresses Saturday into Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Temperatures have remained steady or started to rise in some areas. Southerly winds will start to pick up during the day with some wind gusts around 25 to 30 mph. This will allow for temperatures to climb into the middle 30s to lower 40s. A quick moving area of light snow will be possible across far northern portions of the region north of Interstate 70 this morning, before dry conditions return for the rest of the daytime hours. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A system starts to move into the region tonight through Wednesday night. Primarily rain is expected Tuesday night, however some mix with snow cannot be ruled out. As the colder air rushes in on Wednesday winds will pick up and precipitation will change over to snow showers. Have wind gusts around 35 to 45 mph and continue to mention this in the HWO. There is a concern that as the cold air rushes into the region, air and pavement temperatures will start to drop. This will create the potential for slick conditions especially going into Wednesday evening and continuing into Wednesday night as lake enhancement continues snow showers across the region. While snowfall amounts will not be overly heavy, there will be pockets of heavier accumulating snow. In addition visibility will be reduced with snow showers at times with the wind. The cooler air moving in will then also lead to the potential for slick conditions on roadways. Have mention of this in the HWO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Quite a bit of uncertainty heading into the late week timeframe given the spread in global models and ensemble guidance. However, there is some growing consensus that two systems will impact the Ohio Valley between Thursday and Saturday, but timing, placement and overall impacts are still a bit murky. Several models showing an initial wave that will impact our CWA late Thursday into Friday. The Euro has been fairly consistent in forming a snow band that has the best QPF axis focused in portions of northern KY into southern OH, with lighter snow amounts up towards the I-70 corridor. The GFS is showing some similarities to this QPF footprint as well, with the latest 00z run matching the Euro fairly well. SLRs will be important to monitor with these systems as the majority of our CWA will be higher than 10:1. Near the I-70 corridor, SLRs will likely be near (or even exceed) 15:1. However, south of the OH River, SLRs do slightly drop to around an 8 or 9:1. In general through, these higher ratios will result in some efficient snowfall accumulations. After the Friday system, the focus then shifts to the next potential system on Saturday. This Clipper system could bring another swath of accumulating snowfall to the region, with models trending towards the higher snow totals up near the I-70 corridor. Still too early to assess exact snow amounts, but the important thing to remember with these systems is that the high SLRs (particularly north of the OH River) will help this snowfall overachieve in some areas. The other impactful weather phenomena to highlight this weekend is the Arctic air mass that settles into the region. Models have shifted the coldest day to now be Sunday/Sunday night instead of Saturday. By Saturday night, wind chill values will be in the lower single digits and perhaps even sub-zero in our north. Bitterly cold temperatures continue into Sunday before a subtle warming trend ensues for the beginning of the following work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Mid and high clouds will start out the TAF period. Hint at some lower clouds for Tuesday morning, however models sometimes over saturate the low levels with the southerly flow, so decided not go to with MVFR ceilings. Cannot rule out a brief light snow showers at KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK later this morning, however generally expect any snow chances during this time to stay north of the TAF sites and therefore did not include at this time. Breezy conditions are expected during the day. Wind gusts will generally drop off some Tuesday evening into part of Tuesday night, however winds will stay up during this time. Tuesday evening into Tuesday night expect the potential for LLWS. Wind gusts will pick up at the end of the longer KCVG TAF and rain will start to move into the TAF location. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Wednesday through Saturday. Gusty winds in excess of 35kts possible Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...