Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
333 FXUS61 KILN 130518 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1218 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring mostly dry and mild conditions to the region today into Friday. Much warmer temperatures are expected on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will also lead to a developing chance for showers Saturday into Saturday night and then a return to more seasonable temperatures by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will shift east into the Tennessee Valley through this afternoon with the ridge axis extending northward into the mid and upper Ohio Valley. Some high level clouds will drift southeast across the area this morning with mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonable again today with afternoon highs in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The surface high will move off to the east through tonight with return flow developing late tonight and into the day on Friday. As the low level flow begins to back late tonight into Friday morning, some weak isentropic lift will develop along with decreasing pdefs. This may be enough to support a few light rain showers or sprinkles as we head into the day on Friday, with the best chance for any pcpn across our south. Lows tonight will be in the 30s with highs on Friday ranging from the mid 50s in the north to the lower 60s in the south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A rather robust area of occluded low pressure moving toward the Hudson Bay in Canada will be the primary driver of our sensible weather to start the period. This low will pull a warm front northeast across our region late Friday into Saturday, introducing even stronger warm air advection into the Ohio Valley. Some light PoPs are introduced late Friday into early Saturday with the passage of this feature and the introduction of a strong LLJ. However, right now, confidence on any measurable precip during this time period remains low. The LLJ intensifies on Saturday day, with 45 to 50 knots at 850 moving through. This will result in breezy conditions after we decouple, so anticipate gusts of 25 to 30 MPH throughout the day, with probabilities for strongest gusts lighting up moreso along and north of I-70. Blended guidance suggests that high temperatures on Saturday reach the upper 60s, around 10 degrees above normal. While the deep layer moisture looks to remain to our east, we`ll still have enough low level moisture to result in cloud cover most of the day. The cold front will be dragged through Saturday night. The blend hangs onto stratiform rain, but forecast soundings indicate some elevated instability may be present, so may need to add thunder at some point in the future as things resolve better. After the cold front passes, we dry out yet again for Sunday and Monday, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures near seasonal norms in the 50s. Long range ensemble guidance begins to hint at the next disturbance moving into the region around Tuesday, as a potential shortwave moves through the quasi-zonal flow. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure will move east across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys today into tonight. Some high level clouds will be possible at times today into this evening before some mid level clouds begin to develop later tonight. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday, with MVFR CIGs possible Saturday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL