923
FXUS61 KILN 031757
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1257 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A period of light snow will be possible late tonight into Thursday
morning as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Temperatures
will remain below normal through this weekend.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clouds have been hanging in today and based on satellite images, it
looks like we will remain cloudy/mostly cloudy through the rest of
the afternoon and by then, clouds ahead of the next system/cold front
will be overspreading the area. As the cold front drops southeast
into our area tonight, deep layer moisture will remain limited.
However, it looks like there may be enough low level convergence to
squeeze out some scattered snow showers/light snow activity. Most of
the models are trying to show a slightly better chance of this
occurring as we progress through the night across central potions of
our area and then working into our southern portions toward
daybreak. Due to the limited moisture this will be a lower QPF event.
However, with SLRs in the 12:1 to possibly 15:1 range, a few tenths
or so of accumulation will be possible. With road temps below
freezing and air temperatures dropping through the night, expect to
see the potential for slick spots on untreated surfaces. This will
likely affect the morning commute so will continue with an SPS to
highlight the potential travel impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Some light snow may linger across our southeast into Thursday
morning but should taper off quickly through mid morning as the
front pushes off to our southeast. Surface high pressure will then
build east into our area through Thursday afternoon before sliding
off to the east Thursday night. Temperatures will remain seasonably
cool with highs on Thursday ranging from the mid 20s northwest to
the lower 30s southeast. Lows Thursday night will be dependent on
cloud cover. The best chance for clearing appears to be across our
north so will range lows from the single digits north to the teens
across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Zonal westerly flow will be found through the bulk of the forecast
period until a weak l/w trough crosses the region Monday morning.
Northwest flow will be found in it`s wake for the rest of the
forecast. On Tuesday, s/w energy will develop in the GtLks and track
toward nrn NY by evening. The energy from this system looks to stay
north of the CWA and there does not appear to be any indication of
height falls in our area, so dry is the way to go for this forecast.

One exception to the dry forecast could be Sun night/early Mon as
the l/w axis passes, but this threat looks to be confined to the
south and does not have buy-in from a majority of models attm.

Looking at surface and sensible wx, a high pressure ridge axis will
have moved east of the region and a return to southerly flow will
start the forecast. This south flow continues through Sat evening
when it turns westerly and then becomes a bit more variable. This
appears to be in response to a number of weak components - a high
strengthening in the Great Plains extending a ridge into the OHVLy,
a surface low in Canada pulling ne and weakening a cold front that
looks to dissipate over nw OH. It`s not until later Sunday when the
high moves into MN/WI and extends a surface ridge eastward that the
northerly flow kicks in. The surface high then evolves to have a sw-
ne orientation over the OHVly late Mon, with the axis moving east
Mon night and return to sly flow Tuesday.

Temperatures in the upper 20s to 30s are expected with the exception
of Monday when readings should range from the low 20s nw to near
freezing in the se. Sly flow Tues should help raise max temps above
freezing across the CWA.

Lows will be in the upper teens to mid 20s Fri/Sat nights, teens to
near 20 Sun night, mid teens Mon night and warm to the mid-upper 20s
Tue night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low MVFR to IFR cigs have persisted so far today and expect this to
continue through sunset. In the continued weak southerly flow, the
low clouds may eventually begin to scatter out as we head into this
evening but confidence is not all that high with this.

A cold front will push southeast across the region tonight into
early Thursday morning. Areas of light snow will develop ahead of
this later tonight with MVFR to IFR cigs returning. MVFR to IFR vsbys
will also be possible with the snow showers. The snow will taper off
Thursday morning but MVFR cigs will linger into early afternoon
before scattering out through mid afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are possible Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...JGL