Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
554 FXUS61 KILN 191735 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1235 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure is over the region, bringing a brief period of dry weather that will last through tonight and into much of Thursday. Rain returns by Thursday night as another weather disturbance approaches the Ohio Valley region. Temperatures trend warmer and remain slight above average through the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A shallow high pressure currently rests over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions. While high pressure typically provides fair weather conditions, the moisture on the southern side of the high pressure is trapped over the Ohio River region. Cloud cover is expected to remain fairly overcast for that particular region, however, some dry air has been able penetrate into the moisture, resulting in partly cloudy skies for a large portion of the northern half of the area stretching from Dayton to Columbus. Fair weather cumulus and strato-cumulus continue to build throughout the afternoon in this area. Given the less cloud cover, afternoon high temperatures will end up being a few degrees warmer than the rest of the area, generally in the upper 40s. Elsewhere, cloud cover remains throughout the day with the drier air struggling to move south. As the high pressure begins to shift more to the east tonight, the moisture trapped to the south begins to slowly rebound to the north overnight into Thursday morning. Low stratus once again presents the opportunity for fog development overnight, but confidence remains low on the potential for widespread dense fog. Mentions for this possibility are currently discussed in the HWO with patchy/areas wording for fog in the forecast. Temperatures are able to drop a few degrees cooler this evening across north-central Ohio given the lower coverage of clouds. Temperatures drop into the upper 30s. Where clouds remain, temperatures only drop a few degrees heading into Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A pattern change begins into the day on Thursday as an upper level ridge builds over the Ohio Valley. A trough moving into southern Canada suppresses the ridge lower in the atmosphere, limiting the potential for significant warming. Temperatures are able to climb a few degrees warmer than Wednesday, generally in the 50s. The area remains dry much of the day on Thursday, but extensive cloud cover is expected to continue as a series of systems moving out of the western CONUS gradually move eastward. The first system ejects eastward into the central Plains late Thursday, resulting in a more favorable positive theta-e advection into the Ohio Valley Thursday evening and night. While the heaviest rain likely holds off until Friday, increasing rainfall chances are advertised in the forecast for Thursday night, especially across southeastern Indiana, southwest Ohio and northern Kentucky. Closer to Friday morning, these chances expand across the whole area, with higher potential across the aforementioned region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An active weather pattern will be in place for the long term. While isolated thunder cannot be ruled out, there is limited instability and therefore overall thunder chances will be low. There will be the potential for moderate rain and pockets of heavier rainfall late in the day on Friday and into Friday night. There are some signals that some cooler air will try to work in north of Interstate 70 late Friday night, however overall at this point in time expect precipitation to remain all rain. Some lingering light rain will be possible on Saturday across the south early in the day before tapering off. The NBM lingers a small area of a slight chance of precipitation through Saturday night, however the probability of precipitation Saturday night is low. Sunday and into Sunday night is generally expected to be a dry timeframe. There continues to be more uncertainty and variability with the system into next week. There is agreement on a system moving into the region early in the week and lingering into the middle of the week. There is also agreement that this system will start out as rain with more uncertainty as the system progresses if there will be wintry precipitation before it ends. There is not agreement on timing and if there will be wintry precipitation before it ends. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Complex forecast across area TAF sites with clearing improving conditions significantly for Columbus area TAFs during the mid- morning hours. This improvement has advanced slowly westward toward DAY and southward toward ILN, but confidence is high that CVG/LUK will remain at IFR/low-end MVFR. As stratus returns northward overnight into Thursday morning, widespread visibility of 3-5SM is forecast with potential for lower visibility at times. Gradually improvement is forecast throughout the day on Thursday as there is a break, albeit brief, from aviation restrictions late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. More rain and IFR/MVFR restrictions return on Friday and continue into Friday night. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday night into Friday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...McGinnis NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM... AVIATION...McGinnis