Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
005 FXUS61 KILN 051120 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 620 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably cold temperatures will continue into the beginning of next week. The next best chance for precipitation will come Sunday, with some accumulating snowfall possible with this system. Pattern looks to remain active into the following work week, with the potential for multiples systems to impact the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure system in the southeastern CONUS is ushering in a plume of clouds into the south/southwestern portions of our CWA. Stratus deck continues to expand early this morning into southeast IN and west-central OH, which is keeping temps from plummeting further. Low level clouds expected to gradually expand north and east through the morning hours today. In the interim, efficient radiative cooling is ensuing in locations with clear skies, particularly along/north of I-70. Temps in the single digits occurring in this area, but there may be slight improvement in temps prior to sunrise as clouds continue to expand. Daytime highs will remain well below seasonal normals, ranging from the upper 20s to upper 30s. Wedge of surface high pressure will help maintain a dry forecast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... Low temperatures won`t be quite as frigid tonight given the ample cloud coverage. However, some upper teens may still be observed in portions of central OH along with our climatologically cooler spots. The surface high pressure system will begin to drift eastward off the Atlantic coast on Saturday. A Clipper system will begin to impact portions of the Upper Midwest region. While we aren`t anticipating any accumulating snowfall on Saturday, bufkit soundings do support the potential for snow flurries. Additionally, some CAMs are trying to initialize some light (non-accumulating) precip for Saturday. Maintained a mention of flurries given this signal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... At the start of the extended, a closed low will be present over the Hudson Bay, resulting in relatively zonal flow across the Mid- Atlantic region. To our west, a weak shortwave will be opening up within the larger flow, bringing a rain snow mix to the region. Surface temperatures are going to be the deciding factor on whether p-type is primarily liquid or frozen, given that the deep layer column is consistently below freezing. The U.S. 35 corridor looks to be approximately where the rain/snow line may set up, if not a tad farther south. Right now, forecast soundings near the Tri-State indicate a well above freezing sfc temp throughout the day on Sunday, while areas like Dayton and Columbus are right on the cusp of freezing, so p-type remains a bit more ambiguous in these areas. North, soundings are comfortably below freezing, indicating an all snow solution. Once this system passes to the east, a robust 1032 surface high moves into the Great Lakes region and we get another reinforcing shot of cold air. Sunday night`s overnight lows fall to the single digits in west central Ohio and teens elsewhere, while Monday`s daytime highs only reach the 20s. Similarly, Monday overnight lows once again fall to the teens. Fortunately, thanks to the surface high, winds should be relatively light, so additional wind chill factor shouldn`t be too much of an issue. Even so, quite a cold start to the week. Looking beyond Monday, things get a bit more muddled. Ensemble solutions suggest that a larger disturbance will move into the Mid- Atlantic region mid-week, though exact progression is unclear at this time. Moisture content begins to creep up across the region, with a plume of PWATs surging north Monday late night. As such, low end PoPs are introduced as early as Tuesday, primarily north of I-70 before the blend brings in much higher PoPs on Wednesday with the passage of the main system. Once this feature passes, we`ll once again have a strong cold air advection into the region, dropping temperatures to well below normal for the following weekend. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR CIGs now expected to spread across KCMH/KLCK given the persistent southwesterly flow at 925mb. All terminals will maintain MVFR CIGs through the morning, with some indications of a return to VFR by the afternoon. However, this signal is a bit murkier based on latest guidance. Held onto MVFR CIGs slightly longer compared to previous forecast. VFR conditions are favored for tonight, but the extended KCVG taf does show the next MVFR CIG reduction Saturday morning building in ahead of a Clipper system that will impact the region. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are possible Saturday into Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...