Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
943 FXUS61 KILN 111031 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 531 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unseasonably cold air mass in place across the region today will gradually moderate through the end of the week. After a chance for light snow early today, dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the week. Above normal temperatures are expected by the weekend along with a chance for rain. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mid level full latitude trof to continue shifting off to the east leaving northwesterly flow across the region. Low level northwesterly fetch off of Lake Michigan has set up a band of snow showers that will pivot across northern/northeastern portions of our area overnight. This will lead to a chance of snow and some light additional snow accumulations. Have adjusted NBM pops higher based on observations and trends. Generally expect accumulation of a dusting to a half inch prior to ending by sunrise. This could lead to some additional slick spots on area roadways. Lake effect clouds scatter out early this morning followed by an increase in mid and upper level clouds ahead of a weak mid level disturbance that will drop quickly east-southeast across the region this afternoon. Moisture is fairly limited with this feature but can not rule out a light rain and show showers later this afternoon. Have maintained a dry forecast with little to no impact expected if it does precipitate. Highs today will range from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... In northwest flow aloft, a weak mid level disturbance will drop quickly east-southeast across the region late in the day into early evening. Moisture is limited but can not rule out a few sprinkles or snow showers early. After the passage of the short wave...skies clear out tonight. Lows tonight drop to between 30 and 35. Northwest flow aloft continues on Wednesday with a disturbance moving thru the Great Lakes. Any pcpn and clouds stay north of ILN/s area with surface high pressure beginning to build into the southwest. Expect to observe increasing sunshine with temperatures warming some but still remaining 2 to 6 degrees below normal. Expect highs to range from the mid 40s north to the mid/upper 50s south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid level ridging will build slowly east across the central CONUS through the end of the week as surface high pressure shifts slowly east across the Ohio Valley. This will provide mainly dry conditions and a warming trend. Temperatures will trend several degrees warmer each day with highs by Friday slightly above normal. Can not rule out a few showers Friday as the warmer air moves into the region. Increasing southwest flow through the weekend will lead to above normal temperatures with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 60s. This will also bring an increase in moisture and developing isentropic lift. This will bring an increased chance for rain, especially on Sunday. The threat for rain showers will continue into Monday as a weak cold front sags slowly southeast into the area. Temperatures on Monday will be cooler with highs in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low level northwesterly fetch off of Lake Michigan has set up a band of snow showers/flurries that will pivot thru central Ohio affecting KCMH/KLCK early this morning. This will lead to scattered snow showers or flurries with a period of MVFR ceilings ending close to sunrise. The lake effect clouds scatter out early this morning followed by an increase in mid and upper level clouds ahead of a weak mid level disturbance that will drop quickly east-southeast across the region this afternoon. Moisture is limited with this feature but can not rule out a show shower or light rain shower later this afternoon into early evening. If pcpn does fall it is expected to have little impact on aviation. As a 50-55 kt low level jet pivots across the area tonight we can expect a period of low level wind shear. Otherwise...evening clouds will scatter out leading to mainly clear conditions overnight. Westerly winds 10-12 knots, gusting to 25 at times back to the southwest today. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...AR