Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
730 FXUS61 KILN 181815 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 115 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread precipitation continues over the region this evening, with the highest rainfall totals expected near and south of the Ohio River. An unsettled pattern continues for the remainder of the week, with several chances for rain with temperatures slowly trending warmer. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Initial wave of steady rain and some thunderstorms is moving through southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Generally observing up a half inch to an inch outside of thunderstorm activity. Where thunderstorm activity has occurred, amounts are between 1.5-2.0+, with the main corridor of this rain from Osgood, IN, through Cincinnati and into Clermont/Brown counties in Ohio. While this initial round is quite impressive, the actual system is still west of the area. The trough and shortwave dropping southeast into the region moves through this evening, bringing a second round of rain and thunderstorms. Deep southwesterly flow continues to provide above normal moisture to the region through the first portion of the night before the trough finally moves through into Wednesday morning. A strong low level jet aids rainfall development through the evening hours with additional rainfall amounts of a half inch to an inch, primarily across southeast Indiana, southern Ohio, and northern Kentucky. This additional rainfall on saturated ground my result in flooding concerns, especially where thunderstorms produce heavier rainfall rates. The rain occurring right now has also helped to saturate soils and will aid in rainfall runoff once it resumes. A flood watch is possible later this afternoon if the evening trends toward heavier rainfall amounts. To the north of this area, additional rainfall is forecast with the second round, but it will likely be much less, closer to a quarter to half an inch. Otherwise, throughout the rest of the night, the low pressure drops to the south of the region. Northerly flow is occurring Wednesday morning, and with low level moisture still present, low stratus/fog is expected. Can`t rule out some dense fog, but confidence is too low at this time to advertise in any particular location. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Drier conditions are anticipated for Wednesday and Wednesday night as mid-level ridging builds in over the region. Although conditions will be dry, low clouds are expected throughout the day and lingering fog may remain until mid-morning. Northeasterly flow prevents temperatures from warming too much with mid 40s (north) to mid 50s (south) as the daily high temperatures. Cloud cover continues into the overnight so low temperatures are not able to drop too far despite the cooler air mass provided by the high pressure. Temperatures are actually above seasonal normals to start the day on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An active pattern will be in place starting Thursday afternoon and continuing through the day on Saturday. While isolated thunder cannot be ruled out, there is limited instability and therefore overall thunder chances will be low. There will be the potential for moderate rain and pockets of heavier rainfall late in the day on Friday and into Friday night. Saturday night through Monday are expected to be quiet, however another system starts to approach Monday night into Tuesday. There is more variability on several aspects of this system, however during this specific timeframe it is expected temperature profiles will be warm enough for rain. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Busy aviation period as steady rain, some additional thunderstorms, and lingering clouds occur. This afternoon, the thunderstorm activity has taken a pause across CVG/LUK/ILN, but lowering CIGs are beginning to result in MVFR/IFR restrictions. These CIGs continue to lower later this evening and through the overnight for all sites. Can`t rule out some lower visibility but confidence was too low to provide specifics at this time. Lower stratus may end being the more significant impact. Before the overnight restrictions, additional periods of light to moderate rain, along with some thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon and early evening. The thunderstorms are forecast to remain closest to CVG/LUK, but can`t rule out some thunder at DAY/ILN, but odds were less than PROB30. For Wednesday, northeast flow is less than 10 knots. IFR CIGs gradually improve, but are expected to stay at MVFR levels through the remainder of the period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will linger into Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday night into Friday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...McGinnis NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM... AVIATION...McGinnis