783
FXUS61 KILN 111145
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
645 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder air has settled into the region with scattered snow showers
affecting the area this morning. A clipper type low pressure system
will bring accumulating snow to the region tonight into Friday
morning. A second system will bring more snow to the area Saturday
into Saturday night. In the wake of this system Very cold Arctic air
will settle into the area with below zero wind chill values both
Sunday and Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Amplified mid and upper level flow with a mid level low rotating
thru southeast Canada. In post frontal CAA regime - cyclonic flow
off the lakes was resulted in snow showers. Some of the snow showers
were reducing visibilities and resulting in a quick coating of snow.
Have increased NBM pops and used WPC QPF to account for these snow
showers. Also, for the enhanced snow showers have highlighted the
impacts in short term convective SPS.

This pcpn ends early this morning with some breaks in the clouds
possible early this aftn - followed by thickening clouds ahead of
the next system. Any snow looks to hold off until after 6 PM. High
temperatures range from the upper 20s north to the lower 30s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft with a clipper type system dropping southeast
from the Mid MS Valley this evening, the Lower Ohio Valley overnight
and across Central KY Friday. Model solutions have generally trended
a little south with the most favored region for snow accumulation.
Expect snow to develop into southeast Indiana and northern KY during
the early evening and then across all but the far northeast counties
by late evening. This system is rather progressive with all snow
ending from west to east 12Z and 15Z Friday. P-type looks to remain
all snow thru the night but can not rule out a mix in the far
south/southeast Friday prior to ending.

For accumulation expect a band of 2 to 4 inches from southeast
Indiana, northern KY and portions of Ohio near the Ohio River. There
is the potential for a few locations to reach or exceed 4 inches -
with the most favored region over extreme southeast Indiana and north
central KY. Have expanded the advisory for a tier of counties north
- where 1 to 3 inches of accumulation is forecast.

Low temperatures tonight range from the lower 20s north to the upper
20s south. High temperatures Friday range from the lower 30s north to
the mid and upper 30s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad upper trough over the eastern CONUS Friday night will
amplify through this weekend as a shortwave shifts east through the
Midwest and Lower Great Lakes. The trough will shift off to the east
early next week with mid-level heights rising through Wednesday.

Friday night will maintain below normal temperatures and dry
weather as another disturbance slides east into the Midwestern
states. With cold air in place, precip type with this next system is
expected to be all snow. Guidance is in relative agreement that
precipitation will begin Saturday afternoon and continue through
Saturday evening. Near steady temperatures in the 20s on Saturday
will begin to fall during the afternoon as the snow begins. Current
accumulation forecast is in the 2-4 inch range across most of the
CWA, with a focus in the southern half. There remains significant
uncertainty in where a band of potentially higher amounts (4"+)
could occur. For now, will continue to mention in the HWO product.

Temperatures following this system will be the coldest so far in the
season. Confidence is high in temperatures falling to around 0 to
the single digits above zero, with wind chills approaching 10 below
zero (or lower in our western zones). These temperatures will be
near daily records at our three climate sites both Sunday and Monday
morning.

Heights quickly rise early next week, bringing near-normal
temperatures by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold air advection, cyclonic flow and favorable fetch off the lakes
has resulted in widespread MVFR conditions overnight. Enhanced snow
showers are pivoting east of the TAF sites with some lingering
flurries in the west and ceilings are bumping up to VFR as snow
showers end.

Expect VFR conditions to develop this afternoon with west winds
around 10 kts backing to the southwest late in the day.

Attention shifts to the approaching clipper system tonight. Expect
MVFR conditions dropping to IFR late this evening and continuing
overnight in snow. The snow may be moderate in intensity at times -
especially across KCVG/KLUK and KILN where the best chance for LIFR
conditions will exist.

As the system shifts off to the southeast the snow will end early
Friday. IFR ceilings will slowly improve to MVFR by Friday aftn.


OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible through Saturday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday
     for OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday
     for KYZ089>100.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday
     for INZ058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR