179
FXUS63 KILX 261733
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1133 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong westerly winds are occuring today, with gusts of 40-50
  mph being common. This may lead to travel difficulties on north-
  south oriented roadways.

- Below normal temperatures are expected today through Friday,
  with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. Breezy winds will make it
  feel even cooler today and Thursday. Wind chills on Thanksgiving
  morning will range in the teens across the forecast area.

- There is a 60-80% chance of 2" of snow north of I-72 this
  weekend (20-50% to the south). Those with travel plans are urged
  to monitor forecast updates, and begin preparing for travel
  impacts, particularly across the northern half of Illinois on
  Saturday.

- Highs early next week appear to be in the low 20s to low 30s,
  with lows potentially in the single digits to upper teens. Wind
  chills have a 20-30% chance of being below 0 degrees Monday
  morning, north of a Macomb to Kankakee line.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Gusty westerly winds will continue this afternoon, with gusts
pushing to around 40-45 mph still likely into this afternoon.
HiRes guidance does show speeds decreasing this afternoon, with
highest wind reports of around 50 mph having already occurred this
morning. Wind Advisory will continue until 6 pm. Clearing/scattering
out of the clouds is already taking place in west central IL as
the wx system over the Great Lakes rotates to the north-northeast.
This clearing will gradually move into central IL and then
through the CWA this afternoon into this evening, based on
forecast guidance. Mosaic radar shows some light returns, mainly
along and north of I-74, so will maintain some flurries in the
forecast in those areas. Have already made some adjustments to the
forecast, but will tweak cloud cover before sending out a newer
update in a few minutes.

Auten

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

The front has cleared central and southeastern IL overnight. The
colder temperatures and strong winds have arrived. A wind advisory
is in effect this morning to 00z Thursday for all of central and
southeastern IL. Today is a high travel day ahead of the holiday
tomorrow. The greatest impact of the winds will be felt on north-
south oriented roadways like I-55, I-57, and I-39. Widespread
40-50 mph wind gusts out of the west-northwest are expected to
continue through the day today as the low passes off to our north.
Then weakening as the sun sets to wind gusts around 20-25 mph
overnight. High pressure is going to set up over the plains
Thursday and Friday ahead of the next impactful system this
weekend.

Highs today through Saturday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Lows each morning from Thursday to Saturday are in the upper teens
to mid 20s. Wind chills on Thanksgiving morning will range in the
teens across the forecast area.

A winter storm is on the horizon for this weekend. An upper trough
will eject out over the Plains Saturday morning, which will drive
the low pressure system up through the Midwest Saturday. Ahead of
the system, moisture transport will increase from the Gulf, feeding
the precipitation overnight Friday and all day Saturday. WAA will
also play a role in bumping up temperatures to near or just above
freezing during the day Saturday. This will impact where the
transition line will be in Illinois and when, which is the biggest
uncertainty at this time. The GFS and Euro agree on when the system
will enter the western part of the CWA and when it should be
finished. The 00z.26 runs of these models are showing the system
entering between 06-12z Saturday and exiting around 12z Sunday.

P-type will start out as snow early Saturday. At some point during
the day Saturday, the precipitation will transition to a rain/snow
mix some where in central or southeastern IL. Freezing rain does not
look likely at this time, but with the WAA, we can`t completely
write it off. It could sneak in if we aren`t vigilant. From 12z Sat
to 12z Sun, there is a 60-80% chance of 2 inches of snow north of I-
70 and a 20-40% chance of more than 4 inches of snow north of I-72,
based off the probabilistic NBM.

Those with travel plans this weekend are urged to check back for
additional updates. The probability of wintry travel impacts is
steadily increasing, particularly across the northern half of
Illinois.

Next week, more wintry precipitation is possible, along with
bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills. Highs early next week
appear to be in the low 20s to low 30s, with lows potentially in
the single digits (mainly north of I-72) to upper teens. Wind
chills in the northwestern portion of the CWA have a 20-30% chance
of being below 0 degrees Monday morning, based off the LREF.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

MVFR clouds continue at PIA and BMI for another hour or two, then
they will join SPI, DEC, and CMI with VFR cigs for the rest of the
afternoon. Satellite loops show clearing or scattering out of the
clouds from the west and as the wx system lifts through the Great
Lakes, this clearing/scattering out line will reach the TAF sites,
from west to east this afternoon. Once lower clouds scatter out or
clear, few high cirrus is all that is expected through the rest of
the TAF period. Winds will be west to northwest through the
period, with gusts pushing 40kts this afternoon and then slowly
decreasing this evening and into the overnight hours. Still
expecting gusts to around 20kts overnight and into tomorrow.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$