747
FXUS63 KILX 262058
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
258 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty westerly winds up to 40-50 mph will continue late this
  afternoon, but decrease during the evening hours. Travel
  difficulties on north-south oriented roadways will likely
  continue for several more hours.

- Below normal temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday, with
  highs in the 30s. Breezy winds will make it feel even cooler
  Thursday, with wind chills on Thanksgiving morning in the teens.

- There is a 60-90% chance of 4" of snow north of I-72 this
  weekend (20-50% to the south). Those with travel plans are urged
  to monitor forecast updates, and begin preparing for travel
  impacts, particularly across the northern half of Illinois on
  Saturday.

- Highs early next week appear to be in the low 20s to low 30s,
  with lows potentially in the single digits to upper teens. Wind
  chills have a 30-50% chance of being below 0 degrees Monday
  morning, north of a Quincy to Paxton line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

As the low pressure area pulls to the north, through the Great
Lakes into Canada, gusty west winds will gradually decrease this
evening. However, gusts of 40-50 mph will still be possible for a
few more hours, so will keep the wind advisory going until 6pm.
Though winds will be lighter tomorrow, breezy conditions, with
gusts of around 20 mph during the day.

Below normal temperatures will continue tonight through tomorrow
night, with lows in the 20s tonight and upper teens tomorrow
night; and highs in the 35 to 40 degree range.

Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Dry weather will continue into Friday, but the big story continues
to be the major winter system that will be developing out west and
moving through the CWA over the Thanksgiving weekend. Given the
system is still not in the CONUS yet, models still doe not have a
good initial sample of it and therefore uncertainty still exists
with timing and location of this system. Which translate to a
degree of uncertainty when it comes to amounts of snowfall
expected across the area. The things that do remain likely are
minor to major impacts the system will cause over the weekend and
that the models are increasing the probabilities of certain
amounts of snow. Currently there is a 60-90% chance of 4" of snow
north of I-72 with a 20-50% to the south. Folks with travel plans
over the weekend should continue to monitor later forecasts and
confidence levels should increase as the system gets closer and is
better sampled by our balloons. One uncertainty with this system
is the degree or amount of warm air reaching into the area Sat.
This could affect the possible change over the rain or a mix,
which would decrease the amount of overall snow over parts of the
area Saturday afternoon. This snow will also be heavy given the
amount of moisture expected if warmer temps do occur. However, if
the warm air does not arrive, the slightly higher amounts will be
possible.

The other area of confidence is with the colder temps behind this
system. Highs early next week appear to be in the low 20s to low
30s, with lows potentially in the single digits to upper teens.
Wind chills have a 30-50% chance of being below 0 degrees Monday
morning, north of a Quincy to Paxton line.

Another weather system will move into the area Monday into
Tuesday, but this is far enough away and after this weekend`s
system. However, below normal temps will continue and any precip
will be in the form of snow.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

MVFR clouds continue at PIA and BMI for another hour or two, then
they will join SPI, DEC, and CMI with VFR cigs for the rest of the
afternoon. Satellite loops show clearing or scattering out of the
clouds from the west and as the wx system lifts through the Great
Lakes, this clearing/scattering out line will reach the TAF sites,
from west to east this afternoon. Once lower clouds scatter out or
clear, few high cirrus is all that is expected through the rest of
the TAF period. Winds will be west to northwest through the
period, with gusts pushing 40kts this afternoon and then slowly
decreasing this evening and into the overnight hours. Still
expecting gusts to around 20kts overnight and into tomorrow.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$