443
FXUS63 KILX 102038
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
238 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably cold temperatures persist tonight with lows around
  20 degF.

- Fire weather concerns develop Tuesday afternoon as conditions
  become drier (30% RH) and windier (30 mph gusts).

- Near-record warmth is anticipated this weekend with mid-70s
  within reach.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(through next Monday)
Issued at 133 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A highly volatile pattern will bring a large swing in temperature
and periods of gusty winds this week as competing air masses
fight for control.

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a convectively-enhanced
meso-low rapidly moving south of the Ohio River Valley, followed
by a pronounced ridge nosing into the central US. Model guidance
consistently indicates that swift mid-level flow and significant
compressional warming will advect across the Plains and into the
Midwest through midweek, leading to a sharp increase in
temperature. While afternoon highs today will barely reach 40
degF, temperatures are expected to climb to around 50 on Tuesday,
and then near 60 by Wednesday and Thursday.

But first, tonight will bring another round of unseasonably cold
temperatures, with overnight lows expected to be around 20 degF.
In far east-central Illinois, where snow is on the ground,
temperatures could drop into the teens. Otherwise, tonight should
remain dry despite a compact shortwave trough digging into the
region. It`s worth noting that most CAMs depict reflectivity out
ahead of this disturbance, but that a deep low-level dry wedge
(about 10 kft) is likely to preclude additional snow
accumulation.

Some concern for fire weather exists for Tuesday, though the
threat looks sporadic and brief, mainly between 11am-2pm. By then,
model soundings indicate a dry and well-mixed boundary layer
supportive of rapid fire spread. One proxy we looked at was the
joint probability of RH less than 30% and surface gusts > 30 mph.
The latest REFS offers a high (50-80%) chance of meeting these
conditions Tuesday. Winds then ease Wednesday and Thursday as
elongated surface high pressure stretches across the Midwest and
Great Lakes.

Near-record warmth is expected this weekend as a northern stream
shortwave trough moves across the Northern Rockies, pushing a
frontal system towards the Great Lakes. Gusty (30-40 mph)
southerly winds ahead of this front will advect 850-mb
temperatures of 12-14 degC to west-central Illinois by Saturday.
This is considered 99th percentile warmth for mid-November
(source: NAEFS & ECMWF ENS). As a result, afternoon highs in the
mid-70s are anticipated (source: 13z NBM), potentially leading to
record-breaking heat in Springfield and Peoria this weekend.

Early next week presents a challenging but potentially impactful
forecast for the region, with two competing solutions emerging
behind this weekend`s cold frontal passage.

Solution A depicts a rapidly lifting and pivoting deep western
trough across the mid-Mississippi Valley by Sunday. This scenario
brings a strengthening storm system and an accompanying cold front
through Illinois on Sunday evening, potentially resulting in
beneficial rainfall, gusty winds, and even severe weather.

Conversely, Solution B also shows a deep western trough, but one
that develops more slowly and favors the lower-Mississippi Valley.
This track would position us on the northern edge of the storm on
Monday, still bringing beneficial rainfall and breezy conditions
to parts of central Illinois, but likely keeping the severe
weather potential to our south.

While last night`s 00z ensemble guidance indicated nearly two-
thirds of members leaning towards Solution A, the latest
deterministic guidance, including the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC, bucks
this trend by suggesting a storm track more aligned with Solution
B. We are currently awaiting the assimilation of the 12z suite of
ensemble guidance.

All that to say, the forecast for early next week remains
uncertain but warrants close monitoring due to its potential
impact.

MJA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Snow showers are at last coming to an end across east-central IL,
though with a bit of low level instability we can`t rule out a
flurry or two which should have little to no impact on visibility.
Diurnal cu has formed in the MVFR category near DEC/CMI, and west
of PIA/SPI in west-central IL. The highest chance (40-50%) of any
MVFR ceilings will be during the next couple hours at CMI where a
TEMPO group was added.

The potent upper level trough responsible for the gusty winds (and
snow) will continue moving away towards the southeast, and
consequently the gradient will relax to favor easing winds through
the afternoon. As a shortwave ridge builds into the region
tonight, the surface gradient will reorient itself to favor
backing winds which will strengthen sharply when mixing commences
mid morning Tuesday. Expect a return to gusts over 25 kt then, but
for a few hours beforehand (i.e., 10-14z) there may some marginal
LLWS as winds increase to 40-50 kt between the surface and FL030.

Bumgardner

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$