091
FXUS63 KILX 191113
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
513 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very low ceilings and the abundance of low level moisture will
  lead to patchy fog and patchy drizzle across central Illinois
  this morning.

- Rain will move into the area Thursday afternoon and continue into
Friday night. The axis of heaviest rain has shifted south, but there
is still a 30-50% chance of rainfall exceeding one   inch south of I-
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

As the weather system that brought storms to the area yesterday
continues to move east today, a high pressure ridge will build into
the area through tonight. The very low clouds and the abundance of
low level moisture indicates there is a decent inversion already set
up which will likely trap the moisture at the surface. Visibilities
could get reduce below 3 miles at times, leading to some patchy fog
and possible patchy drizzle.
Fortunately, with temps in the lower 40s, the drizzle will remain
all liquid. This should last into the morning hours and then
conditions will improve, though clouds will remain through the day.

Temps will not warm much today with the cloud cover and light
northeast winds and only expecting around a 5 degree increase with
highs in the upper 40s along I-74 to the lower 50s in the southwest
and southeast. Also not expecting much of a decrease tonight,
either, with continued cloud cover. Tonight`s lows are expected to
be in the lower to middle 40s.

Auten

.LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

The next weather system arrives Thursday, but most guidance does not
bring precip into the CWA until late Thursday afternoon and Thursday
evening. The trend in the guidance has been shifting the forecast
track of the precip south, which continues to reduce the amount of
QPF in the CWA. POPS remain high in the south, but the biggest
change has been to pops in the north being lowered and the resulting
pop gradient being tightened from north to south.
Probability of rainfall exceeding 1 inch is now 5-15% in the north
half of the CWA with a 30-50% still south of I-70. Overall, QPF
amounts have been reduced with southeast areas only seeing amounts
of .75 to 1 inch through the event from Thursday through Friday
night.

This system will allow warmer air to advect northward into
the CWA, resulting in daytime highs being above normal, in the 50s
and lower 60s the rest of the week and into the weekend. Dry weather
is also expected for the weekend. However, unsettled weather appears
to return for the first half of the next work week. There remains
decent spread on the timing and location of the precip, but all
guidance suggests cooler weather can be expected.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 512 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

LIFR conditions (ceilings) will prevail at all sites this morning
with low stratus. The low stratus will stick around through the
morning at all sites, but continue into the afternoon & early
evening at BMI and CMI. Cigs at PIA, SPI, and DEC should improve
to just above 1kft this afternoon. Expecting all sites cigs to be
MVFR during the evening, and then improve to above 2kft after
midnight. Confidence is low for when cigs improve to VFR, though
some guidance is optimistic and improves late evening to
overnight. Not confident in this so will keep MVFR ceilings in
place through the end of the period. Winds will be light through
the period with the direction being mainly east to northeast,
though variable winds are expected this afternoon and tonight at
all sites.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$