508
FXUS63 KILX 130446
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1046 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue through Saturday, when highs reach
  the low to mid 70s, which approaches records for some locations.

- Predominantly dry weather through this weekend with the next
  appreciable chance of rain (50-60%) Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

A west-northwesterly flow regime aloft over the central CONUS
continues to maintain dry conditions. West-northwest winds will
remain breezy this afternoon with gusts near 25 mph. Visible
satellite imagery shows clear skies locally, with some cirrus
streaming east-southeast over the central and northern Plains.
Skies will become partly to mostly cloudy (high/thin cirrus)
tonight due to a weak impulse embedded in the upper-level flow,
which could impede aurora viewing at times. High- resolution
guidance indicates temperatures falling into the low to mid-30s
tonight. Winds will decrease tonight through Thursday morning, as
a ridge axis crosses the region from the west. High temperatures
on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than today, reaching the
lower 60s for most.

The forecast remains dry through the weekend as an amplified
upper ridge shifts into the region. The ECMWF, ECMWF-AI, and
GFS/GEFS ensemble means all support a substantial warming trend,
with high temperatures reaching near 70 degrees on Friday and into
the low to mid-70s on Saturday. This places Peoria as the
location with the greatest chance to approach its record high of
74F on Saturday. Breezy conditions return on Saturday ahead of a
frontal passage, with ensembles indicating southwest wind gusts
between 20-30 mph. The ECMWF and GFS ensembles suggest the cold
frontal passage will be dry on Saturday afternoon/evening.
Following the front, a surface high-pressure system will move in,
resulting in dry conditions on Sunday and temperatures cooling
back toward seasonable values, with highs in the 50s.

Model guidance continues to show a slow, uncertain evolution
regarding a cut-off low-pressure system over the southwestern
CONUS. The latest NBM trends indicate a maximum PoPs of 50-60%
for rain on Monday night. However, there is significant spread
among deterministic and ensemble solutions leading to poor
confidence in timing or location of precip early next week.
Higher confidence that temperatures will trend near to slightly
below seasonal norms through mid-week.

25

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

High pressure ridging will keep winds light and variable overnight.
Winds will gradually turn southerly by Thursday afternoon as the
surface ridge pushes east of here. Scattered to broken cirrus will
be common through the period, but otherwise VFR conditions are
expected.

NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$