339
FXUS63 KILX 152310
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
510 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm the next few days, with highs peaking in the
  40s to near 50 degrees by midweek.

- Wet and windy conditions return Thursday as a cold front moves
  through the area. There is high probability (60-90% chance) of
  rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Surface high pressure has slid further east-southeast of here into
the southern Appalachians, with southerly return flow replacing it.
As a result, temperatures have warmed 25 to 30 degrees (!) since
this morning, with afternoon readings in the upper teens to near 30
degrees. Breezy southwest winds continue to gust to around 30 mph in
spots, but have largely subsided west of the Illinois River.
Although the temperatures have warmed drastically since this
morning, wind chills in the single digits to low teens are making it
feel even colder where winds remain brisk. Wind speeds will ease
some tonight with overnight lows dipping down into the teens to low
20s.

Northwest flow aloft will become more zonal this week as a couple
shortwaves slide through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Temperatures will steadily rise the next few days, with highs by
midweek looking to reach the 40s to near 50 degrees on both
Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow snow to melt rather quickly,
with some refreeze potential possible on untreated surfaces Tuesday
and Wednesday nights where lows fall below freezing.

Precipitation chances return Thursday as an upper trough tracks a
surface low through the northern Great Lakes Region. A cold front
will work through the area on Thursday, bringing widespread rain (60-
90% chance) and perhaps even a few rumbles of thunder in southeast
Illinois. QPF will be on the light side with totals ranging from
0.25-0.50". South winds increase ahead of the front and stay
elevated behind it as they shift to the west-northwest. There is a
40-60% chance for gusts to exceed 30 mph, with the ECMWF ensembles
suggesting gusts approaching or exceeding 40 mph (these usually
run a bit higher though).

Temperatures briefly turn cold again Thursday night into Friday as
surface ridging slides over the area. Strong southerly return flow
will then bring warmer temperatures once again this weekend. In
fact, temperatures through the Christmas holiday are favored to
remain warmer than normal with near to below normal chances for
precipitation.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 510 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours with scattered high
clouds. Recent high-res models have continued to suggest some
patchy fog toward daybreak, and TEMPO IFR conditions will be
included at KPIA/KBMI. While winds have been diminishing as of
late, south/southwest winds pick up again to around 10-12 knots by
late morning.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$