972
FXUS63 KILX 040934
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
334 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy southerly winds are expected to ramp up during this
  morning, with gusts 25 to 30 mph north of I-70 this afternoon
  and over much of area tonight especially this evening. HREF has
  50-80% chance of wind gusts 35 mph or higher north of I-70 this
  afternoon, and east of the IL river this evening.

- Above normal temperatures are expected today through Friday,
  with highs in the 60s to near 70. Much colder weather arrives
  early next week with highs in the low to mid 40s over central IL
  Sunday and Monday, and lows in the 20s Sunday and Monday nights
  with a widespread hard freeze likely both nights.

- The next chance of rain is Thursday night into Friday (50 to 70
  percent chance) as a cold front moves through the region.
  Rainfall amounts are unlikely to exceed a half inch (20-40%).
  and could easily be near a tenth inch or less southwest of I-74
  and west of I-57.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

A semi-zonal upper level pattern will prevail over the Midwest the
next few days, with mild and generally breezy conditions this
work week. A few low pressure systems racing quickly eastward and
passing north of IL, with next best chance of rains showers Thu
night and Friday. A strong mid/upper level trof digging into the
Midwest early next week to bring much colder weather along with
more chances of light precipitation this weekend.

A large 1026-1028 mb high pressure sprawled across the Southeast
States while low pressure over the Northern Rockies tracks quickly
eastward to the MN/SD border by early evening pulling its warm
front from Ozarks of southwest MO northeast across central IL
during this afternoon. A fairly tight pressure gradient developing
over CWA during today, to develop breezy south winds with gusts
25-30 mph north of I-70 this afternoon and a few gusts to 35 mph
or higher possible. Veil of mid/high clouds streaming eastward
over central IL this morning are expected to decrease from the
west during the afternoon with passage of warm front. Seasonably
mild highs in the mid to upper 60s today, with west central IL
nearing 70degF from Macomb to Springfield west (HREF has 30-50%
chance of 70F or warmer this afternoon from Jacksonville west).

The "Hot Dry Windy Index" (HDWI) which utilizes the GEFS, shows
most ensemble members with values between 50-100 (above the 75th
percentile) over parts of central and northern IL especially from
I-72 north. The conclusion of most harvest activities in central
IL should help limit the field fire potential. Though fire hazards
are not expected to be high today, it may be best to avoid
burning yard waste today since there may be brief periods of
elevated risk for quick fire spread by afternoon.

Surface low pressure moves over northern WI by midnight and near
northern lower MI by sunrise Wed pushing a cold front se toward
the IA/IL border. Fair strong 925-850 mb west to WSW winds 40-45
kts tonight to limit decoupling of winds and to keep breezy/gusty
sw winds going longer into tonight, with gusts 25-30 mph
especially this evening and into southeast IL too. Much milder
lows overnight in the upper 40s/lower 50s due to winds holding up.

Cold front quickly pushes se through central IL during mid/late Wed
morning and through southeast IL early Wed afternoon. We will have
breezy sw winds to start the day, shifting nw with gusts 25-30
mph especially north of I-70, and possibly over 35 mph gusts north
of I-74. Still mild Wed with highs ranging from lower 60s nw of
the IL river to the upper 60s from I-72 south with lower 70s in
southeast IL. Though temps likely slipping during the afternoon
behind the cold front with temps by 5 pm Wed in mid to upper 50s
in central IL and lower 60s south of I-70. 1024-1026 mb high
pressure settling over IL during Wed night to diminish winds
during Wed evening and allow for cooler lows in the low to mid
30s to return Wed night.

A stronger weather system off the Pacific Northwest to move into
the northern Great Lakes by dawn Friday and push a cold front
southeast through central IL on Friday. We have 30-40% chance of
showers during mid/late Thu evening nw of the IL river, then pops
increase to likely category north of I-72 overnight with 20-30%
pops in southeast IL by late Thu night. Best chances of shower
shift into east central/se IL Fri morning, with lower to 20-40%
chance Fri afternoon in southeast IL. Some weak instability
expected to bring isolated thunderstorms over central IL overnight
Thu night and in southeast IL Fri. QPF amounts still not appear
fairly light averaging a tenth inch with 20-40% chance of half
inch or more in eastern IL and northeast of I-74. Still mild
Friday with highs in the mid to upper 60s and approaching 70F from
highway 50 south.

Forecast models continue to dig a strong mid/upper level trof over
the Midwest during this weekend, with much colder temps arriving
early next week. Seasonable highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s
Saturday, drop into the low to mid 40s Sunday/Monday (upper 40s to
near 50degF in southeast IL Sunday). Breezy NW winds early next
week to make it feel colder. Widespread hard freeze expected both
Sunday and Monday nights with lows in the 20s. Will see
increasing chances of showers from the nw late Sat into Saturday
night as northern stream short wave trof moves into IL. Best
chance of light showers shift east of IL during Sunday. Northern
IL, mainly north of I-88 could see mix of rain/snow showers
overnight Sat night into Sunday morning.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 Day outlook for Nov
9-13th has 35-45% chance of below normal temperatures over central
and southeast IL, with 35-45% chance of below normal precipitation.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1038 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Main aviation concern will be with winds, as southerly winds pick
up Tuesday morning and frequent gusts to 20-25 knots are likely
into the evening. While high-res models seem to overdo the
strength of the surface winds after sunset, the low level jet
warrants an inclusion of LLWS at all sites for the last few hours
of the TAF period.

VFR conditions prevail into Tuesday evening, with only a period of
high based ceilings through midday.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$