539
FXUS63 KILX 290841
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
341 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A long stretch of dry weather will likely continue through this
  weekend across central and southeast IL. This will lead to
  worsening drought impacts, and an increased risk of field fires
  during the peak harvest season underway.

- Unseasonably warm daytime highs near 90 again today, upper 80s
  to near 90 Tuesday, and mid to upper 80s the rest of the week.
  Lows will be mainly in the 50s and lower 60s. Winds to remain
  fairly light under 10 mph through Friday, with a bit stronger
  south southwest winds this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

The 08Z/3 am surface map shows a 1022 mb high pressure over Lake
Huron and ridging sw across central parts of IL and MO. A very
weak and dissipating boundary was near I-74. Winds were light to
calm once again across the area. Very patchy shallow/ground fog
noted near the Indiana border and southern IL from I-64 south.
Temperatures were in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Aloft a large
subtropical ridge was over the central and eastern US with a 590
dm 500 mb high over central/nw IL. We continue to be a blocky
weather pattern with IL stay high and dry with very warm highs and
large 30-40 degree diurnal temperature swings in very dry air
mass locked in place.

The patchy shallow/ground fog mainly near rivers/waterways and in
low lying farm fields (especially those that had heavier rainfall
earlier last week) should lift quickly by 8 am. Otherwise another
sunny day with hot temperatures this afternoon as highs reach near
90. Will be well shy of record highs around 100 today which were
set in 1953. Winds to trend east to NE during today and staying
fairly light, under 10 mph. Clear skies tonight with light winds
and lows in the upper 50s to around 60F. Could see patchy shallow
ground fog later tonight/early Tue morning near rivers/waterways
and low lying fields, with CAMS showing better chance of patchy
fog closer to Lake MI/Chicago area.

A stronger 1032-1034 mb Canadian high pressure to track over
northern Ontario and James Bay on Tue and pushing se into New
England and the mid Atlantic States Thu/Friday. Meanwhile a 500
mb high to stay over IL during rest of the week with 500 mb
heights of 586-588 decameters. So dry pattern to continue rest of
the week. NE winds will increase a bit on Tue to 6-12 mph by Tue
afternoon with a little more cumulus clouds over the IL river
valley Tue afternoon but still mostly sunny. Still very warm Tue
with highs in the upper 80s and a few areas from Peoria and
Springfield west approaching 90 again. Still shy of record highs
in the low to mid 90s on Tue. Clouds continue to increase some
during Tue night as skies become partly cloudy. Lows Tue night
55-60F, coolest in east central IL. Partly sunny skies Wed with
highs mostly in the mid 80s with ENE winds 5-10 mph. Clouds
decrease from the west during Thu with warm highs in the mid 80s
(upper 80s possible over the IL river valley where more sunshine
expected).

Upper level trof off the West Coast to dig into the Western States
late this week with strong upper level ridging holding over the
eastern half of the US including IL. Some energy ejecting ne into
the upper Midwest during this weekend while frontal boundary stays
north and nw of IL along with rain chances staying nw of CWA
through next Monday. Warm highs in the mid to upper 80s Fri/Sat,
mid 80s Sunday and low to mid 80s next Monday.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 Day outlook for Oct 4-8th
has a 80-90% chance of above normal temperatures over central IL
and 75-80% chance of above normal temps in southern/southeast IL.
Precipitation is trending 33-40% chance below normal east of I-55
and near normal west of I-55, with nw IL having 33-40% chance of
above normal pcpn. CPC 8-14 Day Outlook for Oct 6-12th has 60-70%
chance of above normal temperatures over IL. Precipitation is
trending near normal over southern half of IL and 33-40% chance of
above normal pcpn over northern half of IL. Highs in the 80s look
prevalent over CWA through Tue/Oct 7th.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF site next 24hrs, with skies
through the period and light winds.

Auten

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Record high temperatures through Wednesday:

Location       Monday    Tuesday    Wednesday
--------     ---------- ----------  ---------
Bloomington  100 (1953)  98 (1953)  92 (1897)
Champaign     99 (1953)  91 (1971)  92 (1897)
Charleston    99 (1953)  92 (1933)  94 (2019)
Decatur      100 (1953)  94 (1922)  93 (1897)
Lincoln      101 (1953)  93 (1952)  91 (2019)
Olney        101 (1953)  93 (1952)  94 (1952)
Peoria        98 (1953)  91 (1933)  89 (1937)
Springfield  100 (1953)  92 (1971)  91 (2019)

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$