729
FXUS63 KILX 200854 CCA
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
254 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds and patchy fog will continue today across the entire
  area.

- Rain will lift into the region Thursday evening and continue
  through Friday night. The highest rainfall totals expected with
  this next event will be south of a Quincy to Terre Haute line
  where there is currently a high (50-80%) chance of exceeding
  0.50".

- A cold front will move through the area during the first half of
  the new week, with more rain Monday through Tuesday. Behind
  this front, colder air will move into the area, sending
  overnight temperatures into the 20s (60-90% chance).

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A low pressure area will develop in the western plains this
afternoon, with a developing baroclinic zone extending from the
low to the east-northeast toward the mid Mississippi valley.
Southerly winds will bring moisture up from the gulf which will
interact with the boundary, creating rain that will move into the
CWA late this afternoon into tonight. Probabilities will increase
into the 60-80% levels overnight across areas south of a
Jacksonville to Paris line. Lower probabilities will be north of
this line, with some areas north of Peoria not seeing rain until
Friday.

Continued cloud cover will keep temperatures in check, but with
the boundary lifting north and warmer air arriving from the south,
afternoon highs should reach to near normal, in the lower to
middle 50s, which is several degrees below what model guidance was
showing. Like Wednesday, clouds kept the spread from high to low
very small. This could occur again tonight, but rain and winds
becoming more northeasterly will allow temps into the 40s up north
to lower 50s in the southeast.

Auten

.LONG TERM... (Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

The lower pressure area and associated frontal system will move
across the CWA Friday into Friday night. Probabilities will
increase during the day, reaching 70-90% across the central and
southern part of the CWA. The widespread rain will slowly move to
the east and southeast Friday night, reducing the chance of
precip. Most of the rain with this system will occur Friday &
Friday night, with some areas seeing up to .75 inches. This rain
will be beneficial, but will probably do little to significantly
alleviate the drought in the area. Above normal temperatures, in
the 50s and lower 60s, are still expected for Friday, through the
weekend, and for the start of the new work week.

After a dry stretch over the weekend another weather system will
move through the area during the first part of the new work week.
Behind this system, colder air will advect into the region for the
middle of the week. First look shows highs on Thanksgiving Day
slightly above freezing, in the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Overnight lows will be in the 20s.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Ceilings continue to slowly lower across central Illinois late
this evening...with 04z/10pm obs showing IFR conditions at all
sites except KPIA. With low stratus spreading N/NW, think KPIA
will lower to IFR at KPIA by around 09z. Visby forecast will be
challenging overnight, as low clouds will prevent dense fog
development...but think there will be pockets of 1 mile visbys at
times. The lowest visbys have thus far been focused along/north of
I-74 from KBMI to KCMI...and think this trend will continue
through daybreak. 1-3 mile fog will persist across the entire area
through 15z before gradually dissipating toward midday. Despite
the visby improvements, low clouds will persist through the
remainder of the 06z TAF period...although an improvement to MVFR
is expected during the afternoon as S winds at 5-10kt provide
adequate mixing.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$