546
FXUS63 KILX 100455
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1055 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold and breezy conditions stick around through Monday night.
  Wind chill values Monday morning will dip down into the upper
  single digits to teens.

- Scattered snow showers redevelop this evening, potentially
  resulting in minor snow accumulations, brief reductions in
  visibility, and some slippery spots on roads.

- A lake-effect snow band is forecast to bring accumulating snow
  to east-central Illinois tonight. There is a 20-40% chance for
  over 2 inches of snow in parts of Champaign and Vermilion
  counties.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

More flurries are moving into the CWA from the northwest, but the
focus is on the Lake Effect snow that is occurring over Lake
Michigan and the forecast for this type of snow to reach down into
parts of the northeast CWA. HiRes guidance has been showing snow
reaching into Champaign and Vermilion counties over the last 24hrs
and some guidance is suggesting high snowfall amounts. Lake Effect
Snow has reached into these areas of eastern IL in the past, but
not to the point of snowfall amounts of 2-3 inches. Plus, this
will be occurring overnight tonight and could potential affect the
morning commute in these areas. Will be including Edgar
county/Paris, IL to blend better with INDY`s advisory to our
east...helping out our partners in that area. Advisory will start
at 2 am and go til 9 am...though Edgar county may not see any snow
accumulations until after 3 am. Snow will likely end before 9 am,
but affects on travel will likely be felt for a couple of hour
afterwards. Northwest to north winds will also be quite gusty with
speeds approaching 30 mph, so that will be a concern, especially
in wide open areas. Advisory has already been sent and update
forecast should be coming shortly.

Auten

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Upper air analysis shows deep troughing over the eastern half of the
CONUS with a surface low positioned over Pennsylvania. Cold, breezy,
and downright raw conditions are being observed over central
Illinois this afternoon with temperatures sitting in the low to
middle 30s and wind chills in the 20s. Light snow showers continue
this afternoon, though should generally wane to mainly flurries over
the next few hours. Regional radar mosaic shows a band of lake-
effect snow stretching from eastern Lake Michigan into north-central
Indiana, with some enhancement from this over Vermilion/Edgar
counties as of 2 pm. Overnight lows will be a solid 10-15 degrees
cooler than normal with values dipping down into the low to mid 20s.
Breezy winds overnight will send wind chills into the upper single
digits to teens.

Precipitation chances will increase heading into the
evening/overnight hours as a lobe of vorticity dives south through
the area, steepening low to mid-level lapse rates to around 7-9
C/km. High resolution models show snow shower activity entering west-
central Illinois around 00Z/6 pm then sliding into southeast
Illinois around 06Z/midnight. Although models suggest the snow
showers will be more cellular in nature, conditions for squall-like
activity are above par with the SNSQ parameter >1 and SBCAPE
between 15-45 J/kg. However, low-level frontogenesis doesn`t look
particulary impressive, which should limit the threat for linear
squall development. Despite this, expect brief reductions in
visibility (below 1 mile at times) and light snow accumulations
with any robust showers tonight.

Lake-effect snow ramps up overnight as winds turn north-
northeasterly over Lake Michigan. Models show the lake enhanced
showers stretching as far west as the I-57 corridor overnight into
Monday morning, with a more localized band nosing into parts of
Champaign and Vermilion counties. Things look quite impressive for
heavy accumulating snow north and northeast of here, though recent
guidance continues to show the potential for higher amounts to nose
into our area. The 09.12Z HREF shows mean snow accumulations over
Champaign and Vermilion counties upwards of 1-2 inches, though worst
case scenario forecasts have a small area in northern parts of the
counties exceeding 3-4 inches. As of now, there is about a 20-40%
chance that these areas see over 2 inches of snow. This will result
in reduced visibility in snow showers and some slippery spots on
roads where snow sticks.

Cold and breezy weather remains through Monday, with daytime highs
in the low to middle 30s. The upper trough will lift northeast by
Tuesday as surface high pressure slides off to our south. Southerly
return flow will send milder weather back northward, with well above
normal temperatures expected to arrive by the end of the week. In
fact, the NBM shows highs by Saturday in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Upper ridging will keep things mostly dry this week, with early
indications for a strong system to bring beneficial rain next
weekend.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Light snow flurries are still moving across the CWA, but the Lake
Effect Snowshowers are moving south from northeast IL and will
impact BMI, DEC, and CMI overnight and parts of the morning.
Observation where snow is falling is showing IFR and LIFR
conditions and am expecting that at these three sites. Conditions
will slowly improve in the morning as the wave moves through and
winds over the lake become more northwesterly. SPI and PIA will
may still some flurries overnight, but only til early morning
hours. VFR with high cirrus and then clear skies are expected at
all sites from late morning through afternoon and evening hours.
Winds will be northwest with still some gusts of 25-30kts at BMI,
DEC, and CMI. Gusts will decrease in the afternoon and then become
lighter in the evening. Wind direction in the evening will become
more westerly.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for ILZ045-
046-057.

&&

$$