651
FXUS63 KIND 021831
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
231 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with unseasonably warm afternoons through early next week

- Drought is expected to persist and worsen across central Indiana

- Next best chance for rain is Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected through the period as
surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS remains in control.
Light southerly flow at the surface will help to gradually increase
dewpoints. While precipitation is unlikely given very weak forcing,
a stray shower cannot be ruled out with subtle low-level moisture,
primarily during peak heating on Friday. Expected coverage will be
very isolated at best so decided to not add any mentionable POPs.

Gradually increasing dewpoints combined weak southerly flow should
keep overnight temperatures more mild compared to last night. Look
for lows to bottom out in the upper 50s to low 60s. Another similar
forecast is then expected on Friday with highs in the 80s and the
aforementioned very low chance for a stray shower. Highs are likely
going to be a few degrees higher compared to today thanks to a
warmer start in the morning. More diurnal cu should also develop
with slightly greater low-level moisture across central Indiana. RH
values remaining above 30 percent and light winds will keep fire
weather concerns low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A dry and warm pattern will remain in place on Friday through
Monday. Rain chances will return on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Friday night through Monday...

Models continue to suggest strong ridging aloft will remain in place
over Indiana through Sunday with strong subsidence in place.
Forecast soundings show a dry column through the period so mostly
sunny days and mostly clear nights will remain in play. Look for
highs in the 80s to persist, providing an extension of summer-like
weather. These values will be about 15-20 degrees above normals.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Models depict the upper flow becoming more southwesterly on Tuesday
ahead of an approaching upper trough. This will allow gulf moisture
to stream northward across Central Indiana along with at least a
modest increase in large scale ascent. Furthermore, models hint at a
cold front pushing toward Indiana on Tuesday before slowly crossing
on Wednesday. Warm and moist southerly flow within the lower levels
ahead of the front will also help moisture to stream across Indiana,
supporting dew points reaching the 60s and our next best chance for
rain.

Models forecast soundings depict sufficient mid level moisture for
precipitation and a trend toward saturation with pwat values over
1.5 inches. This is on days 5-6, thus confidence is low. Spaghetti
model plots for the GFS ensemble show a wide variance in solutions
which highlights the higher uncertainty. An inverted trough moving
into southeast portions of the CONUS should provide the bulk of
available moisture. However, confidence remains limited on how much
moisture gets pulled northward with the approaching system from the
northwest. Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the cold
front towards the middle of next week. Diverging model solutions
leads to some uncertainty on how much of a cooldown will occur
though.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1146 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with a strong
high pressure just to the east. Winds will remain well below 10kt,
but will predominately be south-southeasterly through tonight before
veering to the southwest Friday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Puma/Melo
AVIATION...Melo