129
FXUS63 KIND 031419
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
919 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing fog possible through mid-morning

- Light snow likely tonight, minor accumulations possible before
  Thursday morning commute

- Wind chills of few degrees either side of zero will be across
  northern areas early Thursday and again Thursday night/early
  Friday.

- Accumulating snow is possible Sunday and again next Tuesday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

No significant changes made to the forecast this morning. We did add
the mention of flurries around the Indy metro area. Radar and
observations show this activity, likely originating from ground
sources seeding the low-stratus layer above. Overall, activity has
been diminishing.

We`ve deviated from guidance regarding sky cover as the
aforementioned low stratus remains locked in over most of central
Indiana. These stable cloud layers can be quite hard to scour out,
and we`ve retained 90-100 percent sky cover longer than guidance
shows. This cloud deck is still expected to break up today as winds
increase from the south, though this will take some time.

Mid to high-level clouds are already on the way ahead of a cold
front expected to arrive tonight. Even with the low stratus
diminishing, skies are still expected to remain BKN to OVC for most.

We`ve nudged high temps downward a bit to adjust for the lingering
low clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Current satellite and surface observations show a persistent stratus
still in place across central Indiana. Fog has gradually developed
across portions of central Indiana as strengthening southwesterly
flow promotes modest warm air advection over a healthy early
December snow pack. Expect fog to continue gradually expanding in
coverage towards daybreak. Any fog that develops should then clear
out through the morning due to slight surface heating.

Quiet weather conditions are expected today with surface high
pressure across the region. Forecast soundings depict a subsidence
inversion and dry column through the day. The inversion may make it
difficult for clouds to clear out, but at least some diurnal mixing
should help promote gradual clearing, predominately over south-
central IN. Limited daytime heating due to low clouds is expected to
keep highs in the low-mid 30s this afternoon. Some locations may
struggle to get out of the upper 20s.

A shortwave trough will push a strong cold front through the region
tonight. Forecast soundings depict the aforementioned subsidence
induced dry air aloft quickly saturating during the evening thanks
to moisture advection, weak forcing, and evaporative cooling. A
brief period of light snow is likely this evening and into the
overnight once this occurs. A lack of deeper moisture return will
keep snowfall amounts very light, generally ranging from a trace to
half an inch. Locally higher amounts up to an inch are possible.

Temperatures tonight will differ significantly from NW to SE. A
colder airmass filtering in behind the front is expected drop
temperatures into the single digits across northwest portions of
central Indiana. Meanwhile, lingering clouds and possibly some light
snow over far southeastern counties late tonight should help keep
temperatures warmer in the low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Thursday...

Drier air moving in with high pressure will allow skies to become
clear to partly cloudy. Some lower clouds may linger in the
northeast with some lake effect clouds influencing the area. Strong
cold advection will only allow temperatures to rebound to the middle
teens northwest to the upper 20s southeast.

Fewer clouds to start Thursday night along with the snow cover will
allow temperatures to drop quickly, with readings falling in the
single digits across much of the northern and west central forecast
area. The far northwest area may see below zero numbers. Readings
will steady out or rebound overnight with additional clouds moving
in.

Friday and Saturday...

On Friday, a southern stream system should remain far enough south
as to not influence the area. Guidance that shows precipitation
reaching the southern forecast area looks overdone.

A weak cold front will move in Saturday, but with a lack of forcing,
will keep the forecast dry.

Below normal temperatures will continue.

Sunday and Sunday night...

An upper trough and a surface low pressure system will bring a
chance for precipitation to the area during this time. Uncertainty
remains though on the timing and the path of the area of low
pressure, which looks to remain south. Chances of precipitation will
determine on how far south it goes. Will keep some chance PoPs
around.

Precipitation type will depend on how warm it gets, but for now it
looks like rain or mix of rain and snow south with snow north, with
mainly snow during Sunday night.

Monday and beyond...

A series of upper impulses and surface fronts will move through
northwest flow aloft. These will bring occasional chances for
precipitation, but timing of the greatest chances remains uncertain.
Will broadbrush chance PoPs for much of the period, mainly Tuesday
onward.

Precipitation type will once again depend on how warm it gets.
Models are trying to warm things up enough by Wednesday so that rain
becomes the primary type, but confidence is low at this stage.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 603 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Impacts:

- Predominately IFR ceilings through the morning, potential for LIFR
  ceilings at a few sites through 14-15Z

- Potential for freezing fog with MVFR or worse visibilities through
  14-15Z

- Light snow possible late this evening into tonight

Discussion:

A low stratus deck remains across Indiana with widespread IFR
ceilings at the TAF sites. An inversion above the stratus deck
should allow for IFR ceilings to persist through at least mid-
morning with the potential for LIFR ceilings at a few sites. The
best chance appears to be through 14Z before slight improvement to
low end MVFR is expected later in the day. Freezing fog remains
possible through mid-morning with generally MVFR visibilities.

Some uncertainty remains on how much ceilings will improve today
before ceilings drop again this evening ahead of a system bringing
light snow potential. Winds will largely be SSW today before turning
more westerly and then northwesterly during the evening.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Melo