087
FXUS63 KIND 180258
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
958 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain overspreading Central Indiana overnight through tomorrow

- Thunderstorms tomorrow across South Central Indiana, a few may be
strong with hail as a primary threat

- Seasonable temperatures through next weekend with another round of
rain expected Thursday into Friday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Breaks in the cloud cover along with dry low levels and light winds
have allowed temperatures to fall to below forecast minimums in some
locations per surface observations. Numerous personal weather
stations are showing colder temperatures as well. Have lowered low
temperatures as needed.

Increasing clouds from the approaching system should stop the
temperature fall and allow readings to rebound.

Regional radar shows showers from central Illinois west to near St
Louis. These will continue to move east. The dry lower atmosphere
may eat away at the leading edge, but showers look to overcome this
by midnight in the far west. Brought in higher PoPs earlier in the
western forecast area based on latest trends.

Rain will continue to overspread the area overnight so continued
with high PoPs most areas.

There are thunderstorms embedded in the area of the showers to the
west. Some of these may survive into central Indiana as elevated
instability works into the area. The most likely areas to see
thunder will be across the southern third or so. Will continue to
monitor their progress in case thunder needs to be added farther
north.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 309 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Dry weather continues for the rest of the day today before rain
overspreads Central Indiana from the west later tonight. Satellite
imagery shows high clouds beginning to spread eastward over the
state, while the main area of low pressure to watch is still over
Colorado/Kansas. Expect clouds to increase through the evening hours
as the system nears while winds become easterly and temperatures
remain fairly steady in the low to mid 40s.

Guidance today has slowed down the arrival of rainfall by a few
hours. This aligns with current thoughts as local soundings show
very dry antecedent conditions, making it difficult for rainfall to
reach the ground initially. The best forcing for ascent and moisture
advection into the area will be around and after 08z as a 35-50 kt
southwesterly low level jet spreads into the state. The better
dynamics will be closer to the track of the low as it traverses
Southern Indiana and the Ohio River on Tuesday, so expect there to
be a rainfall gradient across the state with areas north of I-70
getting closer to 0.25-0.5" of rain while south of I-70 may pick up
0.5-0.75+ inches. As far as timing/duration, expect steadier and
more widespread rainfall to persist into the mid morning hours
before shifting south and east early afternoon. Rainfall likely
continues later into the day for South Central Indiana as the low
tracks through the region, sparking off additional showers and
storms along and south of the warm front.

Keeping the thunderstorm threat in South Central Indiana south of
the west to east oriented warm front. North of this boundary,
temperatures in the 40s and a more stable atmosphere should limit
thunderstorm potential; while a much warmer and unstable environment
aloft exist south of the boundary supportive of thunderstorm
development. Thunder chances increase after sunrise across the south
and continue through the afternoon. Watching for the potential of
additional, more discrete storms to develop during the late morning
and afternoon hours after the main round of rain pushes east. There
has been consistency in CAMs soundings showing sufficient MUCAPE
above a low level inversion and bulk shear supportive of a few
strong elevated storms capable of producing small hail. While
widespread severe weather is not expected, would not be surprised to
see a few strong storms from Sullivan County to Decatur County and
points south. Will monitor this threat over the next 12-18 hours and
update the forecast accordingly.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 309 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

The extended portion of the forecast starts out Tuesday night with
one in a series of shortwave troughs moving through the Ohio Valley
region. The greatest instability will have pushed south of the
forecast area by early Tuesday evening, but an isolated TS can not
be ruled out given around 500 j/kg of mucape through about 03Z
before shortwave ridging/subsidence set in.

In the wake of this shortwave, a subsidence inversion centered
around 700 mb will remain in place through Thursday. Subtle, weak
waa in the 850-700 mb layer beneath this inversion will lead to
overcast skies and likely some drizzle/patchy light rain during the
peak waa period from Wednesday night into Thursday. Another in a
series of shortwaves will then move out of the Southwest into the
Southern Plains Thursday and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. Likely
to categorical pops across the forecast area will begin Thursday
night in the baroclinic leaf/intensifying waa zone, with the bulk of
the heaviest precipitation occurring Friday associated with the main
shortwave trough passage. Storm total QPF amounts from 1-2 inches
look possible for southern portions of the forecast area given the
extended zone of focused waa/vertical motion fields. Lesser QPF
amounts generally under 1 inch are expected in northern portions of
the forecast area. Thunderstorm/marginal severe storm chances look
to be very limited given the expected location of the surface-850 mb
warm front/track of the surface low generally across Ohio River.
However, since this is still 4 days out later forecasts may see a
slight chance of TS added depending on any future track adjustments.

The weather dries out for the weekend owing to surface high pressure
building southward from the upper MS valley and mid level shortwave
ridging moving eastward out of plains into the Ohio Valley. There is
a slight chance of precip increasing again early next week
associated with yet another shortwave trough moving out of the
southern plains. The well advertised cold wave event still looks to
be at least several days out beyond the extended and the
timing/intensity is very uncertain given the potential very strong
jetstream developing over the East Pac/Intermountain west around
Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 601 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Impacts:

- Rain moves in overnight. Brief MVFR visibility restrictions
  possible.
- MVFR ceilings mainly after 15Z Tuesday
- Isolated to scattered thunder on Tuesday, mainly at KHUF/KBMG

Discussion:

Rain will develop ahead of a low pressure system and move into the
sites after 06Z. Dry lower levels will help keep ceilings VFR.
Visibility will be generally VFR, but cannot rule out brief MVFR
restrictions in any heavier rain.

Rain will become more scattered in the 14-17Z time frame, but
ceilings will drop to MVFR. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
develop mainly after 16Z Tuesday, with KBMG having the best chance
to see a storm. Will not mention in TAFs that far out.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...Crosbie
AVIATION...50