382
FXUS63 KIND 040804
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
304 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy freezing fog and isolated light snow showers diminishing
  before daybreak today

- Wind chills of few degrees either side of zero will be possible
  across northern areas early this morning and tonight into Friday
  morning.

- Low chances for snow will be around Sunday and again Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Current satellite and surface observations show an extensive low
stratus deck remains across central Indiana. This has kept
temperatures nearly steady overnight, but a cold front moving
through will usher in colder air later this morning. Patchy freezing
fog is also ongoing with visibilities as low as 2-4 at times. The
cold front is currently located across northwest portions of the
area and will help to clear out any fog and the stratus deck to some
degree.

Only a few locations have reported brief light snow overnight with
little to no accumulation. Latest ACARS soundings depict a lingering
pocket of dry air in the mid levels which is likely the main factor
limiting snow. Slight PBL saturation over the next few hours and
weak forcing may be enough to squeeze out isolated amounts up to a
few tenths of an inch, but the potential is low. Slick spots on
untreated surfaces cannot be ruled out due to ongoing patchy
freezing fog in addition to a low chance for very minor snow
accumulation. Any fog that develops or very light snow will diminish
before daybreak. Look for surface high pressure to build in behind
the departing cold front today. Increasing large scale subsidence
will provide quiet weather conditions across the region through
tonight.

Cold air advection should help limit diurnal heating with highs
generally ranging from the low 20s over the N/NW to near 30 degrees
across the far south. Confidence is lower than usual for lows
tonight. Surface high pressure overhead with a snowpack favors
temperatures quickly plummeting overnight, especially across the
north where there is a deeper snowpack. However, some lingering low
clouds could limit cooling. Model guidance generally suggest there
will be sufficient clearing so temperatures were lowered by several
degrees compared to NBM. Expect lows to range from the mid-upper
teens across the far south to well in the single digits over north-
central Indiana. Near zero or single digit sub-zero wind chills are
also possible over north-central Indiana.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Friday...

A system looks to remain south of the area on Friday, allowing quiet
weather for central Indiana. After a quite cold start, warm
advection will bring temperatures into the upper 20s to middle 30s
for highs.

Saturday...

A cold front will move through the area, but it won`t have a lot of
moisture to work with. Some guidance has been increasing the chances
for rain, but ensembles remain dry. Will continue a dry forecast.

Sunday...

Guidance continues to keep the main forcing with the low pressure
system to the south of central Indiana, and upper support isn`t
impressive. Will keep some low PoPs around.

Monday...

Cold air behind Sunday`s system will bring a potential return of
single digit low temperatures across northern areas early Monday
morning with lows in the teens elsewhere. Highs will only be in the
20s north and around 30 south. Cold temperatures will continue
Monday night with lows from 10 to 20. High pressure will keep the
weather quiet.

Tuesday and beyond...

A series of low pressure system will move through northwest flow
aloft during this period. Confidence is low in the specifics as
guidance is struggling with the strength and path of these systems.
Will continue with broadbrushed PoPs at this time, but will keep
PoPs no higher than the chance category.

If the low pressure systems track far enough north, warmer
temperatures advected into the area could bring rain as the primary
precipitation type, especially during the daylight hours.

Colder air may return Thursday behind one of the systems, but again
confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1241 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Impacts:

- IFR cigs expected with potential for brief LIFR ceilings through
  08-10Z

- Brief MVFR to IFR vsbys possible due to snow/patchy fog through 10Z

- Veering winds through the period

Discussion:

IFR cigs are expected with the potential for brief LIFR ceilings
through 08-10Z. Improving conditions are then expected behind a
departing cold front which should help clear out clouds later in the
morning. VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period
once clouds clear out of the area.

Light snow or flurries is still possible, especially at HUF and BMG,
through 09Z with vsbys generally MVFR but briefly IFR at times. Snow
should end towards 09Z with the potential for some lingering MVFR
vsbys due to patchy fog. Winds will remain mostly in the 05-10kt
range through this morning and gradually diminish later today into
this evening. Expect veering winds through the period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Melo