409
FXUS63 KIND 141407
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1007 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather through Friday with warmer than normal temperatures
  continuing

- Strong to severe storms possible this weekend along with heavy
  rain and isolated flooding

- Turning cooler Sunday and Monday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Another hot and dry day expected across Central Indiana as ridging
and high pressure remain the dominant weather influences locally.
Satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies over the state this
morning while widespread cloud cover exists on the western side of
the ridge. Subsidence under the high and on the eastern side of the
ridge axis will keep skies relatively clear today aside from some
high cirrus at times. Local ACARs soundings do show temperatures at
the top of the mixing layer a few degrees warmer than yesterday
indicating temperatures this afternoon may reach the upper 70s to
near 80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Quiet weather is expected through the period as upper ridging
remains over the central CONUS and surface high pressure continues
to build in. Current radar and satellite imagery shows mostly clear
skies over much of the forecast area. However, some scattered low-
mid clouds associated with a weak remnant boundary are evident
across north Indiana. These clouds should gradually progress
southward before mixing out during the day. Plentiful sunshine later
today combined with a dry column will allow for efficient diurnal
heating. Look for highs to generally reach the upper 70s to low 80s.

Model guidance does depict a low amplitude wave moving along the
northern periphery of the ridge late tonight. This may lead to some
enhancement in clouds for some areas, but precipitation is unlikely
due to a lack of deeper moisture return. Favorable radiational
cooling conditions for much of the night will still allow for
temperatures to drop well into the 50s. Some rural locations may
even reach the upper 40s again.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Wednesday Through Friday.

A broad ridge of high pressure will remain in place over much of the
central US Wednesday into Thursday with strong upper level lows to
the west and to the east. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
over the upper Midwest as Gulf air advects over a nearly stationary
front, but this will keep to the northwest of the forecast area with
only minimal chances for sprinkles across the northwest late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This moisture will bring higher cloud cover
Wednesday into Wednesday night but otherwise expect dry and quiet
weather through Friday with temperatures near normal.

Saturday Through Monday.

The main focus for the long term period will be tracking the
potential for both heavy rain and strong to severe storms Saturday
into Saturday night as the aforementioned low pressure system tracks
into Canada and a secondary low ejects from the Four Corners region
and undergoes cyclogenesis as it tracks through Oklahoma into the
Tennessee Valley. The interaction between these two systems will be
the catalyst for the active weather trough the weekend. The LLJ will
ramp up ahead of the arrival of lift associated with the low
pressure systems on Saturday with a direct connection to Gulf air
bringing copious amounts of moisture to the area. There remains some
uncertainty as to the timing but models have come much closer
together over the last 24 hours with broad agreement in the heaviest
rain occurring late Saturday into early Sunday with lower confidence
on a period of rain ahead of the arrival of stronger forcing.

Both isolated flooding and isolated severe weather will be possible
Saturday night into Sunday for Indiana with highest chances across
the southern and southwestern portions of the state. Instability
will be on the more marginal side across much of Indiana but colder
air working in aloft will allow for 200-400 J/kg of CAPE along with
40-50kts of effective bulk shear. The more notable aspect will be
the shear in the lowest levels with 15-20kts of shear between 0 and
1 km which combined with the marginal thermodynamics may create a
risk for isolated tornadoes. There remains quite a bit of
uncertainty as much of southern Indiana will be on the northern edge
of the better instability which typically ends up underperforming in
these patterns, but will have to continue to monitor the potential.

In addition to the severe threat, isolated flooding will be a
concern across the lower Ohio Valley with an axis of 2-4 inches
likely somewhere in the area. Models are all over the place as to
where this axis will set up with ensemble maximums towards the Ohio
River into Kentucky. Again, details are uncertain at this time and
typically models trend southward on the heaviest axis of
precipitation in these patterns, especially with the current track
of the secondary low staying to the south of Indiana.

Cooler weather is expected in the aftermath of the system Sunday
into Monday with a low-end chance of rain lingering into Sunday
depending on the final timing of the aforementioned system. This
cooldown will be relatively brief as a ridge of warmer air looks to
move back in early next week before the next round of low pressure
systems arrive later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 622 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some scattered lower
clouds between 040 and 060 are gradually pushing southward with a
remnant boundary. These clouds should primarily impact KLAF with a
broken deck, but the other sites could see scattered coverage
through the morning. These clouds should then clear out by
midday.

Otherwise, broad high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region
will keep weather conditions quiet with light winds from the
northeast.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CM
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Melo