530
FXUS63 KIND 151733
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1233 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread highs in the 70s on Saturday along with wind gusts up
  to 35 mph

- Mostly dry over the weekend with increasing rain chances Monday
  night into Tuesday

- Additional rain chances Thursday into Friday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 939 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

The forecast remains in good shape. Only minor adjustments were made
to match observations. Current surface analysis depicts a low
pressure system near the northern Great Lakes region with a cold
front extending southwestward. Warm air advection ahead of the
approaching front is promoting enhanced cloud cover. Expect this to
continue through much of the day, but partly cloudy skies are likely
at times. Warm air advection will warm temperatures into the low-mid
70s by the afternoon despite more cloud cover today. Look for a
mostly dry frontal passage late today due to weak forcing, but
isolated showers are possible over E/SE portions of central
Indiana.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

A low pressure system will be moving across Canada, north of the
Great Lakes, through the short term, strongly influencing the
weather across central Indiana. Ahead of the associated cold front,
WAA from SW flow will bring well above normal temperatures today.
Based off of yesterday`s overachieving temps, have gone above
guidance for today, with low to mid 70s expected for much of the
area. There is a chance that temps get even warmer today, but given
the expected cloud coverage confidence wasn`t high enough to inch
warmer at this time. Indy may even have a run at tying or breaking
it`s high record for the date, as the current record is 74 set in
1971. The front will also bring breezy winds throughout the day as
well with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible mid-morning to mid-
afternoon.

Models shows the cold front moving across central IN late tonight
and through the overnight hours. Along the front, there will be
limited moisture to work with as well as displaced forcing, so we
will likely not see much rain with this system. Can`t rule out some
sprinkles or light rain along the front and best chances for
measurable precipitation will be in the far east and SE portions of
the forecast area.

Behind the front, temperatures will drop from north to south with
morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 259 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Sunday Through Tuesday.

Any lingering precipitation Saturday night will come to an end by
daybreak Sunday with the surface flow becoming northwesterly. There
is some model differences as to how strong the exiting trough will
be as it moves into the Northeastern states which will impact the
strength of the CAA and resulting temperature drop. Generally models
are honing in on the stronger low solution which could bring
northwesterly gusts up to 25 mph and temperatures in the low 50s
along with dry conditions and clear skies.

Quiet weather will continue into Monday with broad ridging across
the Ohio Valley. Conditions will then begin to shift Monday night
into Tuesday as a eastward progressing trough interacts with
southerly Gulf moisture surging into the area. After several days of
very inconsistent model runs, things are beginning to coalesce
around a solution of a closed low transitioning into a broader
trough with precipitation across central Indiana Tuesday. Exact
details remain uncertain with the potential for two axis of heavier
precipitation, the first associated with a warm front along the Ohio
River and the second being the better forcing associated with the low
to the north near Lake Michigan. As higher resolution modeling
becomes available, confidence will increase as to where this axis
will set up but generally expect rain amounts to be around 0.25-0.5"
with a low-end potential for isolated amounts up to an inch.

Wednesday Through Friday.

Precipitation is expected to end by Wednesday morning outside of a
low-end chance for some lingering light rain/drizzle if the low
clouds stick around for a longer than currently expected period.
Focus then will shift to a low pressure system exiting the Four
Corners Region and tracking it as it rapidly strengthens as it moves
into northeast into the Plains. This system has a much better chance
in bringing appreciable rain to the area along with a low-end chance
for thunderstorms or even an isolated stronger storm. Many of the
details remain uncertain, but there is good agreement within the
ensembles of this more significant system.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1232 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Impacts:

- Southwesterly wind gusts around 23-30kts through sunset, up to
  20kts afterwards

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with enhanced cloud
coverage through the day before decreasing tonight. MVFR ceilings
are ongoing at LAF, but this should only be brief as ceilings lift
some towards mid afternoon. Southwesterly winds will gust to around
22-30kts through the afternoon hours. Gusts may continue at LAF and
IND through the night though lower magnitude than during the day.
There is a non-zero chance for showers 22Z to 02Z, but chances are
too low for even a PROB30 mention at this time.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Melo