199
FXUS63 KIND 131739
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1239 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with significantly warmer temperatures today into the weekend

- Low rain chances late Saturday through Sunday night

- Additional periodic chances for rain early next week as well as
near normal temperatures

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Expect quiet weather conditions today as surface high pressure
remains centered over the region. Latest satellite imagery depicts
some high clouds streaming across central Indiana. This is
associated with subtle moisture and a weak impulse moving through.
Forecast soundings show a very dry column in the low-mid levels and
a subsidence inversion beneath the subtle moisture aloft though
which will keep the forecast dry.

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments
needed. RH values are likely going to plummet into the afternoon as
forecast soundings depict good mixing into a very dry airmass aloft.
Minimum RH values around 20-35% are expected, but light winds should
mostly limit any fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in
centered over the gulf coast. A ridge axis extended northwest from
the high across the plains states to the Dakotas. A deep low
pressure system was found over far NE Quebec. These two systems were
providing northwest flow across the Great lakes and westerly surface
winds over Central Indiana. GOES19 shows a stream of high CI clouds
within the NW flow in place aloft. Aloft water vapor showed strong
ridging in place over the Rockies with lee side NW flow streaming
from Central Canada to the Ohio Valley. Radar was quiet across the
region.

Today and Tonight...

More dry and slowly warming weather is expected today and tonight.
Aloft the upper ridging is expected to slowly drift eastward and
build slightly within the northwest flow aloft. Little i the way of
forcing dynamics pass during this time and mid levels remain dry
also as subsidence on the lee side of the ridge will remain in
place.  Meanwhile at the surface, the previously mentioned surface
ridge axis will push east to Indiana by 00Z Friday before exiting
east to the Appalachians by Friday morning. This will result in light
winds today as the ridge passes today. Winds will shift to southerly
tonight  become even lighter tonight as mixing is lost and the
ridging exits east. Thus a mostly sunny day and and mostly clear
night will be expected.

As the ridge passes, stronger warm air advection will come into
play. This will allow high temperatures to reach the upper 50s
today, and low temperatures will only reach around 40 tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

There continues to be strong agreement in the beginning of the long
term of an upper level ridge moving through the region. Strong WAA
out ahead of this ridge will further the warming trends highs in
the 60s are expected Friday and upper 60s to low 70s for Saturday.

This same WAA will also induce some height falls in the low levels,
with a short wave likely to pass over the Ohio Valley on Friday.
This will lead to some increased clouds Friday morning as well as
the chance for light precipitation, with best chances across the
south.

A upper trough with an associated low over Canada will begin to
reach this area over the weekend. While warm temperatures are
expected Saturday ahead of the system, increased cloud cover will
also come with it. A stronger LLJ and deep mixing will likely lead
to elevated wind gusts Saturday afternoon. Current forecast is for
peak gusts between 25-30mph, but there is some potential for higher
gusts as courser model guidance better handle the low level pressure
gradient. Frontogenesis beneath the Canadian Low will lead to
limited moisture within the frontal regime late Saturday into early
Sunday. That said, there could be enough moisture convergence for
showers to develop near and around the boundary, and therefore the
chance PoPs with this system will mainly be for the eastern portion
of the forecast area Saturday night.

Behind the front temperatures will return to near normal, with highs
in the 50s, for Sunday and beyond. Models also have decent agreement
with another ridge for the start of the new week to bring dry
weather and mostly clear skies. Beyond that though, models are
struggling to resolve how the pattern will evolve, especially with
an upper low exiting the desert SW. Should the wave reach the Ohio
Valley, additional rain chances could arrive late Monday into
Tuesday with models hinting at the potential for another wave to
bring more precipitation at the end of the period to later next
week. For now keeping with guidance on PoPs for the end of the long
term, but confidence is low for that portion of the forecast at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1237 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Impacts:

- Low chance for MVFR ceilings Friday morning.

Discussion:

A ridge of high pressure will pass across Central Indiana today.
This will result in light winds and just some passing high clouds
from time to time. Forecast soundings show a dry column through
tonight. Thus VFR conditions are expected.

Westerly winds will shift to the south this afternoon. Speeds will
remain light. Increasing clouds and lower ceilings are expected on
Friday. Latest guidance is trending towards the potential for MVFR
ceilings Friday morning. Confidence is still not enough to include
in the TAFs, but BKN035 was included for most sites around 13-14Z.
Trends will continue to be monitored as MVFR ceilings appear more
favorable.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Melo