667
FXUS63 KIND 191739
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1239 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dreary and cool through tonight as low stratus remains in place;
  areas of fog at times this morning and again tonight

- Seasonable temperatures through the weekend with the next round of
  rain Thursday into Friday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments
needed. Current satellite and surface observations show an extensive
stratus deck across central Indiana along with widespread fog. A low-
mid level subsidence inversion evident in model soundings suggest
moisture will continue to remain trapped in the lower troposphere.
Look for the low stratus deck to persist through the day for this
reason. Fog should gradually clear out into the afternoon as
temperatures warm up slightly. Expect highs only in the mid 40s to
possibly lows over the far south due to the persistent stratus deck.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 253 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Dreary and cool conditions are expected to continue throughout the
short term period through tonight across central Indiana.

As an elongated area of low pressure and low level baroclinic zone
slowly drift southeastward away from the area today, expansive
surface high pressure will slowly drift eastward, keeping a
considerable low level subsidence inversion in place, trapping low
level moisture and allowing widespread cloud cover to persist into
tonight.

The stagnant airmass in the wake of the front and minimal advective
processes to produce any real change in the thermodynamic
environment should allow for a persistence of the cool, dreary
conditions, with the possible exception of very few breaks in the
low clouds late in the day should thin spots in the trapped moisture
allow, and some slight lifting of the inversion height which may
allow ceilings to rise a bit this afternoon.

Clouds may build back down again tonight, and light winds as a
result of the surface high may again allow fog to develop as well,
despite the cloud cover. Patchy dense fog will again be possible,
particularly in favored areas.

Temperatures today should rise only about 5-7 degrees at most as
insolation will be severely hampered by the stratus deck. Leaned
heavily toward low end of the guidance envelope. Lows tonight will
again be near persistence, likely in the low to mid 40s in the
absence of significant clearing, which seems unlikely. Even in spots
where some breaks may occur, arriving midlevel cloud ahead of the
next system should also assist in limiting diurnal range.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Thursday Through Saturday.

The main focus for the long term period will be tracking a low
pressure system exiting the Four Corners Region as it moves into the
Plains. There has been a subtle shift in the models over the last 24
hours with regards to another low pressure system in Canada trending
further north which is allowing the southerly low to push further
north into the Ohio Valley which is leading to a slight uptick in
the expected precipitation and overall strength of the system.

That being said, central Indiana still looks be to the north of the
warm front, but will be closer to the better forcing which is
bringing QPF amounts up to around an inch with some uncertainty
remaining on whether that axis is along the I-70 corridor or further
south towards the Ohio River. Precipitation with this system is
expected to come in two waves with the first wave being in the
Thursday to Thursday night timeframe associated with isentropic lift
out ahead of the low with the main slug of precipitation Friday into
Friday night. Light rain and drizzle then looks to persist into
Saturday before conditions dry out towards Sunday.

Sunday Through Tuesday.

Seasonable temperatures and quiet weather are then expected for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week with weak southerly
flow across Indiana as the jet stream remains locked to the north.
Rain chances will gradually begin to increase going further into
next week but details remain very uncertain at this time on the
development of a more significant upper level low across the
Southern states.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1238 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Impacts:

- Widespread IFR ceilings ongoing, expected to gradually improve to
  low end MVFR later today or into tonight for most sites

- Ceilings may bounce back down to IFR overnight for some sites,
  potential for fog redevelopment

Discussion:

Cool and stable northeasterly flow across the area has allowed for
the persistence of widespread IFR ceilings across the area around
400-800 feet. These will gradually improve to low end MVFR this
afternoon, but may build back down to IFR tonight, though this
remains uncertain. Have brought ceilings back down to 900 feet for a
few sites after sunset tonight to account for the potential.
Ceilings should return to low end VFR during the day Thursday, but
confidence on exact timing for this remains uncertain as well.

Visibilities are generally still ranging from 2-6SM midday. Expect
these visibilities to gradually improve to VFR later this afternoon.
Fog is expected to redevelop with the potential for MVFR or worse
visibilities at some sites again tonight. There is an outside shot
at IFR visibilities as winds go calm at some sites, but for now will
leave MVFR.

Winds will become more easterly as the day goes on then
southeasterly this evening. Late tonight, where winds are not calm
to light and variable, winds will become more southerly or
southwesterly. At all times, winds will be less than 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Melo