


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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592 FXUS63 KIND 160504 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 104 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer, with rain chances Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. A few thunderstorms possible - Turning cooler following frontal passage Sunday and Monday && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 940 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Mid clouds spilling over a strengthening upper ridge along the Upper Mississippi Valley...have scattered out over much of the region this evening. Decent upstream fetch courtesy an embedded weakness should maintain ceilings over several zones from the Upper Wabash Valley to east-central counties. Generally FEW/SCT decks south of the I-74 corridor may promote patchy fog formation, especially along the East Fork White River. Surface winds coming out of surface high pressure sliding southeastward from the Great Lakes into the eastern Midwest...will maintain NE/E flow under 10 mph overnight. Greater predictor of overnight lows will be cloud cover...with far northeastern counties possibly clearing enough to fall into the mid-40s by dawn. Elsewhere low to mid-50s should be the rule for most locations. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 146 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Broad ridging over the upper Mississippi Valley will still promote surface pressure increases over the Ohio Valley through the end of the work week; however, an amplifying subgeostrophic jet streak beneath a modest shortwave upstream of the ridge will keep conditions mostly cloudy through today, including intermittent pockets of light showers and sprinkles. Day time sensible heat fluxes have led to some mixing out of the low level cloud layer within central Indiana. This should lead to some fluctuation between scattered to broken cloud cover this afternoon. The diurnal curve will dampen a little beneath this cloud cover with highs this afternoon in the low 70s. As mentioned, there is a chance for sprinkles and light rain showers today within the passing upper wave. Dew point depressions, have increased to between 15-20F this afternoon, limiting overall coverage, but a few concentrated pockets of lift approaching from the west may allow for some precipitation to occur. If any does occur, total QPF will likely remain at 0.01 or less in any given area. Low to mid level clouds are expected to linger over western and northern portions of central Indiana tonight. This should limit diurnal cooling and keep temperatures warmer compared to areas further east. There are some hints at a boundary developing south of the cloud cover tonight, of which could lead to a narrow corridor of fog development, but confidence in occurrence is low at this point. For tomorrow, the surface high should become more established over the general region eventually leading to mostly clear skies by the late morning. Some patchy diurnal cumulus is likely to develop on the eastern periphery of the surface high, currently expected over eastern Indiana, but there is still some variability in surface high positioning for tomorrow. Highs should remain fairly stagnant despite less cloud cover due to weak CAA on the backside of today`s shortwave. && .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)... Issued at 146 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Thursday Night through Friday Night... Dry and warm weather is expected during this period. Models suggest strong ridging in place aloft with strong surface high pressure in place over the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday Night. These features will push east through Friday Night, but continue to control the weather across Central Indiana through Friday Night. Forecast soundings show a dry column across through this time. No forcing appears available within the southwest flow aloft, thus partly cloudy and warm weather will be expected as backside southerly winds should be in place. Saturday and Sunday... Forecast remains on track to have the best chances for rain during this period. Models suggests a strong trough axis over the plains to deepen and push into the Mississippi Valley on Saturday and cross Indiana on Sunday. Southwest flow ahead of the trough axis along with an associated approaching cold front will be favorable for temperature and moisture advection as well as broad lift. At this time it appears that several dry hours will be in place on Saturday until the best moisture arrives which looks to occur on Saturday Night and into Sunday. Thus will focus best pops at that time. A few thunderstorms may be possible along the front, but confidence is low. Furthermore, progressive flow should allow for quick moving storms, limiting flooding potential. Models suggest the upper trough axis will still be over Indiana on Sunday as it appears to become somewhat negatively tilted. Models here still keep abundant moisture available. Thus continued pops for mainly lighter precipitation will be needed. Given the clouds and rain, expect a cool down in high temperatures. Monday and Tuesday... Dry but seasonable weather is expected to return early next week as a quick moving ridge aloft is suggested to pass across Indiana during this time. A strong surface high pressure system is shown to be present beneath this ridge, centered over the deep south and stretching to the Great Lakes. Thus partly cloudy skies will be expected with highs in the 60s. Wednesday... Rain chances will once again be needed here as another quick moving short wave is suggested to pass. Models suggest the arrival of a strong warm front ahead of an associated, deep low over the central plains. Thus again, pops will be needed perhaps starting as early as Tuesday night, continuing into Wednesday. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Impacts: None Discussion: VFR conditions are expected through the period. Low to mid level clouds will persist through at least daybreak for most TAF sites. MVFR ceilings are unlikely. Some patchy ground fog may develop late tonight across central Indiana, but the potential is far too low for any mention in the TAFs. Look for clouds to mix out during the day as surface high pressure builds in. Light winds around or less than 10kts are expected through the period with a predominately east-southeasterly direction. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...AGM SHORT TERM...Updike LONG TERM...Puma AVIATION...Melo