592
FXUS63 KIND 160504
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
104 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer, with rain chances Saturday afternoon through Sunday
  morning. A few thunderstorms possible

- Turning cooler following frontal passage Sunday and Monday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Mid clouds spilling over a strengthening upper ridge along the Upper
Mississippi Valley...have scattered out over much of the region this
evening.  Decent upstream fetch courtesy an embedded weakness should
maintain ceilings over several zones from the Upper Wabash Valley to
east-central counties.  Generally FEW/SCT decks south of the I-74
corridor may promote patchy fog formation, especially along the East
Fork White River.

Surface winds coming out of surface high pressure sliding
southeastward from the Great Lakes into the eastern Midwest...will
maintain NE/E flow under 10 mph overnight.  Greater predictor of
overnight lows will be cloud cover...with far northeastern counties
possibly clearing enough to fall into the mid-40s by dawn. Elsewhere
low to mid-50s should be the rule for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Broad ridging over the upper Mississippi Valley will still
promote surface pressure increases over the Ohio Valley through the
end of the work week; however, an amplifying subgeostrophic jet
streak beneath a modest shortwave upstream of the ridge will keep
conditions mostly cloudy through today, including intermittent
pockets of light showers and sprinkles. Day time sensible heat
fluxes have led to some mixing out of the low level cloud layer
within central Indiana. This should lead to some fluctuation between
scattered to broken cloud cover this afternoon. The diurnal curve
will dampen a little beneath this cloud cover with highs this
afternoon in the low 70s.

As mentioned, there is a chance for sprinkles and light rain showers
today within the passing upper wave. Dew point depressions, have
increased to between 15-20F this afternoon, limiting overall
coverage, but a few concentrated pockets of lift approaching from
the west may allow for some precipitation to occur. If any does
occur, total QPF will likely remain at 0.01 or less in any given
area.

Low to mid level clouds are expected to linger over western and
northern portions of central Indiana tonight. This should limit
diurnal cooling and keep temperatures warmer compared to areas
further east. There are some hints at a boundary developing south of
the cloud cover tonight, of which could lead to a narrow corridor of
fog development, but confidence in occurrence is low at this point.

For tomorrow, the surface high should become more established over
the general region eventually leading to mostly clear skies by the
late morning. Some patchy diurnal cumulus is likely to develop on
the eastern periphery of the surface high, currently expected over
eastern Indiana, but there is still some variability in surface high
positioning for tomorrow. Highs should remain fairly stagnant
despite less cloud cover due to weak CAA on the backside of today`s
shortwave.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Thursday Night through Friday Night...

Dry and warm weather is expected during this period. Models suggest
strong ridging in place aloft with strong surface high pressure in
place over the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday Night. These features
will push east through Friday Night, but continue to control the
weather across Central Indiana through Friday Night. Forecast
soundings show a dry column across through this time. No forcing
appears available within the southwest flow aloft, thus partly
cloudy and warm weather will be expected as backside southerly winds
should be in place.

Saturday and Sunday...

Forecast remains on track to have the best chances for rain during
this period. Models suggests a strong trough axis over the plains to
deepen and push into the Mississippi Valley on Saturday and cross
Indiana on Sunday. Southwest flow ahead of the trough axis along
with an associated approaching cold front will be favorable for
temperature and moisture advection as well as broad lift. At this
time it appears that several dry hours will be in place on Saturday
until the best moisture arrives which looks to occur on Saturday
Night and into Sunday. Thus will focus best pops at that time. A few
thunderstorms may be possible along the front, but confidence is
low. Furthermore, progressive flow should allow for quick moving
storms, limiting flooding potential. Models suggest the upper trough
axis will still be over Indiana on Sunday as it appears to become
somewhat negatively tilted. Models here still keep abundant moisture
available. Thus continued pops for mainly lighter precipitation will
be needed. Given the clouds and rain, expect a cool down in high
temperatures.

Monday and Tuesday...

Dry but seasonable weather is expected to return early next week as
a quick moving ridge aloft is suggested to pass across Indiana
during this time. A strong surface high pressure system is shown to
be present beneath this ridge, centered over the deep south and
stretching to the Great Lakes. Thus partly cloudy skies will be
expected with highs in the 60s.

Wednesday...

Rain chances will once again be needed here as another quick moving
short wave is suggested to pass. Models suggest the arrival of a
strong warm front ahead of an associated, deep low over the central
plains. Thus again, pops will be needed perhaps starting as early as
Tuesday night, continuing into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Impacts: None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Low to mid level
clouds will persist through at least daybreak for most TAF sites.
MVFR ceilings are unlikely. Some patchy ground fog may develop late
tonight across central Indiana, but the potential is far too low for
any mention in the TAFs.

Look for clouds to mix out during the day as surface high pressure
builds in. Light winds around or less than 10kts are expected
through the period with a predominately east-southeasterly direction.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Melo