959
FXUS63 KIND 261722
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1222 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- WIND ADVISORY in effect 700 AM - 700 PM today...for westerly winds
  sustained at 20-30 MPH...with gusts 40-50 MPH

- Flurries today, mainly near/north of I-74...with a few snow showers
  possible this afternoon far-north/northeast counties

- Wind chills in the teens tonight, Thursday night, and Friday night

- Potential for light accumulating snow Saturday before a gradual
  changeover to rain by early Sunday

- Much colder air to open December with additional opportunities for
  wintry weather

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Winds are increasing across the area with many locations now
reporting gusts between 30-40 mph. A few reports have already
reached as high as 45 mph. Expect continued and more frequent gusts
over 40 mph as we head into the afternoon.

Radar is beginning to show some light echoes approaching from the
northwest. ACARS soundings out of IND show low-level lapse rates
(below 850mb) steepening with time. With broad cyclonic flow in
place, we expect precipitation to expand in coverage. Surface
temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s as of 11am. Despite this,
snow will be the primary precip type today. The reasons include the
aforementioned steep lapse rates. It`s quite cold just above the
surface so any snow flakes will not need to fall through a
significantly deep warm surface layer. Additionally, soundings and
observations show the surface layer to be rather dry as well. This
will help reduce the effects of melting through evaporational
cooling.

Accumulations are not expected today. Any snow will come in the form
of flurries or light snow showers. The best chance of such activity
is with northward extent. We`ll include the mention of flurries/snow
showers in the forecast from about Bloomington northward.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

*WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT 7AM-7PM TODAY FOR GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH*

Today...

Potent early winter wave crossing the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
today will maintain 992 mb surface low pressure over northern
Michigan.  This system`s cold frontal zone will continue to cross
central Indiana through pre-dawn into morning hours...while 1030 mb
polar high pressure aligned down the Plains slowly builds east.
Gradient between these features will peak over the Midwest during
the day today, with westerly flow within 15-21Z sustained up to 20-
30 MPH, with gusts up to 40-50 MPH for all but far south-central to
southeastern zones where gusts to 35-40 MPH will be most likely.

Predominate westerly headings will direct majority of Lake Michigan
fetch to Michigan/far northern Indiana...although stronger forcing
embedded in belly of parent trough crossing Indiana through midday
will encourage widely scattered SHSN over the state`s northern
third, and flurries down to the I-74 corridor.  Can`t rule out brief
visibility reductions for our northern and especially far northern
counties....with overall flurry activity dissipating by early
evening.

Temperatures will have fallen to the mid to upper 30s by 700 AM...
with readings nearly steady through daytime hours.  While far
southern zones may still be around 40F through early afternoon...
bigger story will be resultant wind chills in the low to mid-20s for
most areas under mainly overcast stratus.

Tonight...

Central Indiana to remain in gradient between storm slowly departing
into southeastern Canada and amplified ridge`s axis remaining near
the Ozarks, however slightly retreat of northern system`s dumb-
belling forcing to Great Lakes should create a brief quasi-split mid-
level flow over local region which will help partially-diminish
winds to more typical robust gusts of 15-30 MPH after midnight.

Stratus should scatter out and lift to mid-levels amid lack of
forcing, and perhaps surrender to cirrus over several southwest
counties through the overnight.  The region`s coldest night since
perhaps Veterans Day will be on tap as readings fall through the 30s
during the evening and into the low to mid-20s by sunrise
Thursday...with wind chills falling as low as 8 to 20 degrees. The
normal max/min at Indianapolis through the short term is 47/31.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

The first piece of the significant pattern change towards colder and
more unsettled conditions has arrived and will continue to step down
into early December. The initial impact will be noticeably colder
air into the first part of the weekend including Thanksgiving but as
broad meridional upper level troughing takes hold over much of the
eastern half of the country this weekend into next week...a series
of storm systems will impact the Ohio Valley with increasing
potential in multiple opportunities for wintry precipitation
including snow.

Thursday through Friday

Strong low pressure will continue to pull away from the region into
eastern Canada on Thursday...but remain close enough to maintain a
tighter pressure gradient at the surface. Winds remain brisk for
Thanksgiving Day but peak gusts will be lower than what is expected
today. Despite increasing sunshine on Thursday it will be cold with
highs in the 30s. Temperatures may struggle to rise above freezing
over northern counties and the continued brisk winds will keep wind
chills in the 20s. Friday will be cold in the lower and mid 30s but
otherwise should be the best day of the extended holiday weekend for
any outdoor activities with sunny skies and much lighter winds.

Friday Night through Sunday

A much more active regime will develop for the weekend as a broad
upper level trough settling across the eastern part of the country.
A potent short wave will dive out of the Pacific Northwest on Friday
then pivot quickly into the region by Saturday evening. Moisture
will increase in advance of a surface wave poised to eject out of
the Rockies Friday night then kick E/NE into the Great Lakes by
Sunday morning.

Precipitation will arrive across the region as early as late Friday
night and persist into Saturday. Extended model guidance continues
to struggle on the details with a broad range of scenarios in play.
That being said...the overall model suite is trending towards snow
as the primary precipitation type on the front end of the system
Saturday. Greater uncertainty in precip type develops as the day
progresses that will largely depend on the orientation...speed and
intensity of the wave aloft and how quickly warm air advects north
as the surface low pivots into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends
support rain mixing with snow from the south beginning Saturday
afternoon with an eventual transition to rain over most of the
forecast area by early Sunday morning as low pressure likely tracks
to the northwest of central Indiana and temperatures rise through
the night. Rain will gradually diminish on Sunday in the wake of a
cold front. Lingering scattered light rain or snow showers are
possible by Sunday night.

The primary takeaway message for late Friday night and Saturday is
that there will be a period with light accumulating snow and at
least some impacts to travel prior to a transition to predominantly
rain Saturday night into early Sunday before ending. Lower snow to
liquid ratios are expected leading to a wet and slushy snowfall.
Specific snowfall amounts remain uncertain at this point but trends
support 1 to 2 inches north of I-70 with less than an inch further
south. Stay tuned for updates.

Highs remain in the 30s then rise to a range from the mid 30s to
lower 40s the first half of Sunday before falling as the day
progresses.

Sunday Night through Tuesday

After a brief break in the unsettled weather...precipitation will
return for early next week as an inverted surface trough lifts into
the Ohio Valley and some phasing of upper level jet energy develops.
Even less confidence exists with this system but potential for a
wintry mix or snow is increasing as the coldest air of the season
advects into the region. Highs remain largely below freezing Monday
and Tuesday and across the northern half of the forecast area for
Wednesday. Lows will be in the teens. High confidence remains in a
cold and largely unsettled pattern continuing for the region through
the first half of December with additional opportunities for snow
and wintry weather.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1222 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Impacts:

- Strong westerly winds through today, gustiness continuing tonight
  into Thursday

- A few periods of brief, light flurries at times

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period, though a brief
drop to the MVFR borderline cannot be entirely ruled out, primarily
at LAF.

The primary concern for this period will be winds, with sustained
winds of 20-28KT and gusts to around 40KT through this afternoon at
all sites, generally from 260-270 degrees. Winds will die down a bit
this evening, particularly gust speeds, but remain gusty throughout
the night and into Thursday. Direction will veer slightly later in
the period to 280-290, with gusts dropping back into the low to mid
20s range tonight with sustained winds in the mid teens.

A few flurries are occurring, though at any one site these will be
transient and should cause no restrictions.

No obstructions to visibility are anticipated through the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...AGM
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Nield