283
FXUS63 KIND 231449
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
949 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog this morning. Mainly sunny with mild temperatures
  this afternoon

- Rain expected Monday night through Tuesday night

- Turning colder beginning Wednesday into next weekend

- Watching next weekend into the following week for a strong storm
  system to bring rain, snow, and large temperature swings to Indiana

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Fog and stratus continued over a good part of central Indiana this
morning, as low level moisture was advected into the area.
Visibilities are starting to improve, but the stratus continues to
spread.

Stratus should still mix out later this morning or early this
afternoon with mixing and general subsidence, allowing sunshine to
return to those areas. Nudged down high temperatures in areas with
clouds, but will wait and see how fast the dissipation actually
occurs before making more changes to temperatures.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 829 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Stratus and patchy fog continue to develop across central Indiana
this morning. Locally dense ground fog is around, with favored areas
reporting below 1/2SM. Bufkit model soundings show that it may take
much of the morning before stratus disperses. Have updated the
forecast to reflect this and may need to adjust further if
stratus/fog expand more than expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

A weak frontal boundary is working through the forecast area early
this morning. An area of mid level clouds out ahead of the boundary
was already moving away to the southeast leaving skies mostly clear
over much of central Indiana. 06Z temperatures were largely in the
low and mid 40s.

Quiet conditions will continue through the short term as high
pressure reestablishes across the Ohio Valley in the wake of the
frontal passage this morning. The high will remain the predominant
weather feature through early Monday as it shifts off to the east
with dry weather and mild temperatures with upper level ridging
expanding into the region.

There remains a chance for scattered low stratus development over
the next few hours through daybreak along the front as it presses
southeast. To this point the stratus has held well to the north of
the region over southern lower Michigan. That being said...an axis
of higher RH progs in the 950-925mb layer does at least offer the
possibility for some development of stratus into the region. The
overall dryness of the airmass will be a limiting factor.

Any stratus that can form should be gone by mid morning with mainly
sunny skies expected for the duration of the day. Thin cirrus will
drift across the region within the northwest flow aloft east of the
approaching upper level ridge but even this should be pushed to the
east of the forecast area by this evening as the center of the high
moves across the region. High level clouds will return predawn
Monday in advance of a developing storm system ejecting out of the
central Rockies. In spite of that...near calm winds and the
developing of a shallow yet sharp inversion does support potential
for some fog to develop prior to daybreak Monday.

Temps...low level thermals support highs in the low and mid 50s this
afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 30s under
decent radiational cooling conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 248 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

An active weather pattern continues next week with numerous
systems bringing large temperature swings, rain, and windy conditions
to the state.

Monday and Tuesday...

Monday starts off mild and relatively quiet compared to the rest of
the week as the region will be under ridging aloft within a warmer,
southwesterly flow pattern ahead of an incoming trough to the west.
A strengthening low level jet and southerly flow through the column
will be advecting moisture northward into the region resulting in
increasing cloud cover. Despite a lack of sunshine, warm air
advection and well above average low and mid level temperature
anomalies support high temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s.

Weak troughing lifts northeastward into the Great Lakes Monday night
while a jet streak overhead and an increasing low and mid level jet
provide enough lift and moisture for widespread rain. Precipitation
develops southwest of the region during the day Monday then pushes
in from the west Monday evening and into the overnight hours. Not
expecting thunderstorms with this system as instability is fairly
limited to non existent, however steeper mid/upper level lapse rates
and enhanced lift under the exit region of the jet may lead to
heavier rainfall rates at times. A quarter to three quarters of an
inch of rain is currently expected across Central Indiana, with the
higher amounts within the southeastern half.

The bulk of the rainfall moves eastward Tuesday morning with a
drying trend expected during the day. Southwesterly flow persists
behind this initial system as a much stronger trough and associated
low develop over the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes. With the
cold air locked up north behind the next system, Tuesday will
feature above normal temperatures once again. Cloudy skies persist
but southwest winds and steepening low level lapse rates support
highs in the mid to maybe upper 50s.

Wednesday through Friday...

A significant pattern shift arrives the day before Thanksgiving as a
strong trough to the north and associated front usher in an arctic
airmass over the entire region. The strong front pushes through the
state early Wednesday morning, with scattered showers and snow
showers likely along it. Steepening low level lapse rates as much
colder air advects in aloft along with a strong 30-40 kt low level
jet will make for a cold and windy day. West northwesterly winds 15-
25 mph with gusts over 35 mph are likely...stronger gusts may be
possible. Lower confidence in the temperature forecast for Wednesday
as guidance may not be handling the set up well as temperatures may
not follow a typical diurnal pattern. High temperatures may be
reached early in the day before the front, with steady or falling
temperatures in the 30s during the afternoon and evening. Wind chill
values will likely remain below freezing all day, dropping into the
teens by Wednesday night. Not too concerned with wintry weather at
the moment as enough dry air should be advecting in, limiting snow
showers within the cyclonic northwest flow pattern; however would
not be surprised to see on and off flurries.

Winter-like temperatures and breezy conditions persist Thanksgiving
and Friday as strong northwesterly flow keeps an arctic airmass
entrenched over the region. While conditions will be fairly dry,
high temperatures may struggle to get above the freezing mark while
wind chill values stay in the teens and 20s.

Next Weekend into Early December...

Confidence is increasing in a significant storm system and strong
baroclinic zone developing next weekend and into the first week of
December, setting the stage for an active period with widespread
precipitation and large temperature swings. Long range guidance has
been consistent in showing an active southwesterly subtropical jet
across the Central and Southern CONUS in response to a sharpening SW
to NE temperature gradient setting up from the Plains to the Great
Lakes. This classic winter-time pattern can bring widespread heavy
rain, snow, and storms to a large portion of the CONUS. While
confidence is low on the specifics and exact evolution of mesoscale
and synoptic scale features, confidence is increasing in this
pattern developing with Central Indiana within or near the main
storm track.

For now, the weekend looks to start out as a period of light snow
Saturday before a transition to rain as a strong frontal boundary
sets up to the west with waves riding along it. Latest trends have
Indiana on the warmer side of the front going into Sunday with
higher rainfall chances... but confidence remains low as this is
still a week away and guidance will likely struggle with this
complex set up. This active pattern is expected to persist into the
following week with additional waves of precipitation tracking
through the state and large temperature swings. We will be
monitoring this timeframe closely and updating the forecast
accordingly as confidence increases on timing, track, and impacts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 553 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Impacts:

- IFR stratus may impact KHUF this morning

Discussion:

Skies were clear across central Indiana early this morning as a
frontal boundary slides through the area. Monitoring an area of
stratus with ceilings largely below 500ft expanding eastward across
central and southern Illinois. This cloud deck may make it to KHUF
just after daybreak before shifting south. Additionally...may see
pockets of lower stratus develop along the boundary near KBMG as it
drops south over the next several hours.

High pressure will settle across the Ohio Valley as the day
progresses with any stratus diminishing as deeper subsidence advects
into the region from the north. Mostly clear skies will persist
through the evening with mid and high level clouds increasing late
tonight into Monday morning. There is potential for lower stratus to
redevelop predawn Monday as well with model soundings showing an
inversion in the near surface layer.

Northwest winds less than 10kts are expected throughout the day
before becoming light from the southeast tonight.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
MESOSCALE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...Ryan