519
FXUS63 KIND 101131
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
631 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory for Central and North Central Indiana 3AM
  to 10AM EST Monday.

- 1-2 inches of snow is expected, resulting in slippery roads and
surfaces.

- Wind gusts around 25 mph.

- Highs today in the lower 30s. Lows tonight around 20.

- Significantly warmer Wednesday onward, with occasional rain
  Friday into early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Radar early this morning shows a meso-low circulation over NW
Indiana. Snow showers were swirling around this feature as the west
side was strengthened by lake effect snow. Much lighter snow showers
were found across the Kokomo, Muncie and Lafayette areas. On a
broader scale, surface analysis shows strong low pressure was found
over NYC, providing broad cyclonic flow across the eastern half of
the country. Strong high pressure was found over the plains. This
continued to result in a cold, northerly flow across central
Indiana. Aloft, strong ridging remained in place over the Rockies
while a deep upper low was found near NE IL. These two features were
resulting in an highly amplified flow across the CONUS.

Today...

Active weather will continue today as the upper low to the northwest
is expected to swing a trough axis across Central Indiana this
morning. Ample forcing will accompany this strong feature. Meanwhile
the HRRR suggests the previously mentioned meso-low will track south
across western Indiana, guided by a larger surface trough axis
extending toward NY state. Wrap around moisture along the trough is
expected to push southerly across central Indiana, resulting in a 1-
2 hour burst of light snow as it passes. Forecast soundings show a
saturated column overnight and through the morning hours, indicating
sufficient moisture for snow. Stronger subsidence looks to arrive by
late this afternoon in the wake of the trough axis as the upper low
reaches the western Great Lakes. Temperatures today are expected to
climb little. 850mb temps suggest the dome of cold air around -12C
remains firmly entrenched across Central Indiana through the day.
Clouds and morning snow showers should limit heating, keeping
temperatures in the upper 20s through the morning hours. Highs in
the lower 30s should be reached by the afternoon, after any snow
showers end.

Impacts from the band of light snow this morning, combined with
temperatures in the mid to upper 20s will include additional light
snow accumulations.  Road surfaces will become cold enough for a
thin layer of accumulation, resulting in slippery surfaces,
particularly during the morning drive time hours. Thus the ongoing
advisory will remain in place given the potential impacts with this
first snow of the season.

Tonight...

The deep upper low over the Great lakes is expected to continue east
tonight while ridging continues to be in place across the Western
CONUS, THe upper flow becomes much less amplified by 12Z Tuesday as
Pacific NW flow aloft begins. Weak ridging aloft is expected to
build overnight as time heights show subsidence. At the Surface
strong ridging builds across Indiana which should lead to a mostly
clear sky. Forecast soundings at that time show a dry column.
Finally, warm air advection will be in place overnight as the core
of the cold air mass begins to drift east. This warm air advection
will be more reflected in high temperatures on Tuesday as southerly
winds arrive. Overnight, with clear skies and new snow, low
temperatures may fall to around 20.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Ridging at the surface and aloft will become the predominant force
across the region from mid to late week, leading to a significant
warmup and dry weather from Tuesday night through at least Thursday
night.

Weak upper level disturbances moving through the region in the
northwest flow aloft on Tuesday, combined with some midlevel
moisture, may be able to produce scattered flurries or sprinkles,
but measurable precipitation is unlikely given the depth of drier
air near the surface.

There will be a very low chance for a stray shower in the warm
advection regime Friday into Friday evening, mainly in the east,
though the more significant rain potential will come during the
latter part of next weekend into early next week, as upper level
closed lows pass north and south of the region, with associated
surface lows pushing a frontal boundary through the area.

Highs will return to the 50s and 60s by mid week and remain there
through the remainder of the seven day forecast, with lows similarly
warming, though varying more significantly through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 631 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Impacts:

- Widespread MVFR conditions w/ periods of IFR in snow showers
  through the morning

- Winds gusting 18-25KT at times through the day

Discussion:

Snow showers associated with a compact low pressure system are
moving through the area this morning, and producing widespread MVFR
conditions with occasional drops to IFR, and this will remain the
case through the mid to late morning hours. Will carry TEMPO IFR
groups at all sites to account for this. IFR will primarily be in
the form of visibility restrictions, but brief drops to high end IFR
ceilings will be possible.

VFR conditions are likely to return to all sites by the mid
afternoon hours.

Winds will gradually become more northwesterly with time today,
gusting as high as 18-25KT at times, before sustained winds relax
and gusts drop off this evening in typical diurnal fashion.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Nield