332
FXUS63 KIND 120214
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
914 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significantly warmer Wednesday through the weekend

- Dry next few days with low rain chances towards late this
  weekend

- Slightly better chance for rain Monday into early Tuesday next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Quiet conditions tonight across Central Indiana with clear skies and
temperatures remaining steady in the mid to upper 30s through the
morning.

Main focus tonight will actually be the clear skies overhead.
Satellite imagery shows clouds finally pushing off to the east this
evening as the forecast calls for mainly clear skies over the next
24 hours. Optimal conditions are setting up for Northern Lights
viewing tonight for all of Central Indiana. The Space Weather
Prediction Center has confirmed that a G4 Solar Storm is ongoing
right now resulting in the Aurora Borealis visible for a good
majority of the CONUS. Visit swpc.noaa.gov for more information on
the solar storm and Aurora forecast.

Sunny skies tomorrow and a retreating arctic airmass will also bring
much warmer air into the state. Expect highs across Indiana ranging
from near 50 in the north to almost 60 in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 221 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Current satellite and surface observations depict extensive cloud
cover across the region. These clouds are associated with moisture
streaming in aloft and weak forcing from an upper wave moving
through. Low-level dry air has limited any potential for
precipitation today and this will likely continue with forecast
soundings showing dry air remaining near the surface. Widespread mid-
high clouds are helping to reduce diurnal heating, but temperatures
have gradually warmed up thanks to strong southwesterly flow. The
strong MSLP gradient across central Indiana and daytime mixing into
a strong LLJ overhead is promoting strong wind gusts between 25-35
mph.

PBL stabilization this evening into tonight should allow for gusts
to diminish eventually. Gusts may not completely diminish until late
tonight though as breezy conditions will slow the PBL decoupling
process. Forecast soundings show increasing subsidence tonight into
Wednesday and a dry column supporting quiet weather. Model guidance
also depicts increasing heights aloft Wednesday once upper ridging
begins to depart and ridging centered near the Rockies shifts east.
This along with mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to warm
into the 50s for most of the area. Expect wind gusts around 20-30
mph to return during the day Wednesday once near surface lapse rates
steepen.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 221 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Wednesday night through Saturday...

Mostly quiet weather is expected through the first half of the
extended as upper ridging shifts eastward towards the region late
week. Increasing warm air advection and deeper moisture returning
north may support isolated showers at times. Weak forcing should
keep any rainfall amounts very light though. A significant warming
trend will be the primary focus with temperatures expected to reach
the low-mid 60s Friday and possibly low 70s over portions of central
Indiana by Saturday. Highs are normally in the mid 50s this time of
year.

Saturday night through Tuesday...

Rain chances become more widespread, but remain low late weekend as
guidance shows an upper trough and low pressure system pushing
through the region. Warm air advection ahead of an associated cold
front will keep temperatures above normal. Slightly deeper moisture
is also expected to advect northward. This along with forcing from
the system supports low precipitation chances across the entire
forecast area on Sunday. Cold air advection behind the departing
front should trend temperatures cooler late Sunday into Monday.

Precipitation chances remain elevated early next week as guidance
depicts another system quickly moving in. Diverging model solutions
leads to greater uncertainty regarding exact details. It does
appear this system may provide a better chance for rainfall though
as deeper moisture streams northward within persistent SW low-level
flow. Near seasonal temperatures are generally expected early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 644 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Impacts:

- Winds gusting to 20-30 kts around and after 15z Wednesday

- LLWS tonight at all sites

Discussion:

The main focus with this evening`s TAF issuance is be low level wind
shear during the overnight hours and then gusty winds 20-30kts
during the day Wednesday.

A strengthening southwesterly low level jet is currently set up over
the state. Local soundings show a stabilizing boundary layer,
limiting wind gusts from mixing down to the surface; therefore
starting the 00z TAFs with LLWS of around 50 kts from the SW.
Through the night the LLJ becomes northwesterly and diminishes to
around 25-30 kts toward the 09z-12z timeframe. By 15z Wednesday,
expect low level mixing to once again bring higher gusts of 20-30
kts down to the surface with surface wind directions becoming
westerly (260-280).

VFR conditions expected through the rest of the period with no vis
or cig concerns.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CM
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...CM