503
FXUS63 KIND 191118
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
618 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dreary and cool through tonight as low stratus remains in place;
  areas of fog at times this morning and again tonight

- Seasonable temperatures through the weekend with the next round of
  rain Thursday into Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 253 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Dreary and cool conditions are expected to continue throughout the
short term period through tonight across central Indiana.

As an elongated area of low pressure and low level baroclinic zone
slowly drift southeastward away from the area today, expansive
surface high pressure will slowly drift eastward, keeping a
considerable low level subsidence inversion in place, trapping low
level moisture and allowing widespread cloud cover to persist into
tonight.

The stagnant airmass in the wake of the front and minimal advective
processes to produce any real change in the thermodynamic
environment should allow for a persistence of the cool, dreary
conditions, with the possible exception of very few breaks in the
low clouds late in the day should thin spots in the trapped moisture
allow, and some slight lifting of the inversion height which may
allow ceilings to rise a bit this afternoon.

Clouds may build back down again tonight, and light winds as a
result of the surface high may again allow fog to develop as well,
despite the cloud cover. Patchy dense fog will again be possible,
particularly in favored areas.

Temperatures today should rise only about 5-7 degrees at most as
insolation will be severely hampered by the stratus deck. Leaned
heavily toward low end of the guidance envelope. Lows tonight will
again be near persistence, likely in the low to mid 40s in the
absence of significant clearing, which seems unlikely. Even in spots
where some breaks may occur, arriving midlevel cloud ahead of the
next system should also assist in limiting diurnal range.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Thursday Through Saturday.

The main focus for the long term period will be tracking a low
pressure system exiting the Four Corners Region as it moves into the
Plains. There has been a subtle shift in the models over the last 24
hours with regards to another low pressure system in Canada trending
further north which is allowing the southerly low to push further
north into the Ohio Valley which is leading to a slight uptick in
the expected precipitation and overall strength of the system.

That being said, central Indiana still looks be to the north of the
warm front, but will be closer to the better forcing which is
bringing QPF amounts up to around an inch with some uncertainty
remaining on whether that axis is along the I-70 corridor or further
south towards the Ohio River. Precipitation with this system is
expected to come in two waves with the first wave being in the
Thursday to Thursday night timeframe associated with isentropic lift
out ahead of the low with the main slug of precipitation Friday into
Friday night. Light rain and drizzle then looks to persist into
Saturday before conditions dry out towards Sunday.

Sunday Through Tuesday.

Seasonable temperatures and quiet weather are then expected for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week with weak southerly
flow across Indiana as the jet stream remains locked to the north.
Rain chances will gradually begin to increase going further into
next week but details remain very uncertain at this time on the
development of a more significant upper level low across the
Southern states.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 618 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Impacts:

- Widespread IFR conditions this morning improving to MVFR this
  afternoon

Discussion:

Cool and stable northeasterly flow across the area has allowed for
the persistence of widespread IFR ceilings across the area around
400-500 feet. These will gradually improve to low end MVFR this
afternoon, and may build back down to IFR tonight, though this is
uncertain. Have brought ceilings back down to 1000 feet at all sites
after sunset tonight.

Visibilities are generally ranging from 4-6SM this morning. Expect
all sites to return to VFR later this morning, with potential for
MVFR or worse visibilities at some sites again tonight. There is an
outside shot at IFR visibilities as winds go calm at some sites, but
for now will leave MVFR.

Winds will be northeasterly early, becoming more easterly as the day
goes on, then southeasterly this evening. Late tonight, where winds
are not calm to light and variable, winds will become more southerly
or southwesterly. At all times, winds will be less than 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Nield