067
FXUS63 KIND 020802
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
302 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 7am with additional
  amounts of 1-2 inches across the southeast half of central IN.

- Areas of freezing fog tonight, potentially locally dense in
  spots.

- Light snow is possible Wednesday night.

- Wind chills around zero will be across northern areas
  early Thursday and again Thursday night.

- Light snow is again possible Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Latest KIND radar imagery depicts snow ongoing across central
Indiana with the most widespread coverage across the southeast half
of the area. Visibility reductions as low as 1/4 to 3/4 of a mile
have been observed with an organized band moving eastward across
south-central Indiana. Strong frontogenetical forcing is promoting
this heavier band which will continue to shift eastward over the
next few hours. Expect generally 1-2 inches of additional snowfall
across the southeast half of central Indiana with lower amounts
towards the north and west. Locally higher amounts up to 3 inches
cannot be ruled out over far southeastern counties where snow will
persist for a longer duration.

Look for snow to end shortly near far W/NW portions of central IN as
mid-upper level forcing from the associated wave shifts east. Deeper
moisture will also shift east while drier air filters in aloft. Snow
will then taper off west to east through the early morning hours
with all of central Indiana in the clear by about 6am. Model
guidance depicts increasing heights aloft and surface high pressure
building through the day. This should help keep a low stratus deck
in place during much of the day and possibly well into the
overnight for a large part of the area.

There is increasing confidence in areas of freezing fog developing
tonight with increasing warm air advection over a healthy early
December snowpack. Most high resolution guidance depicts fog quickly
this evening and continuing through the overnight. Diurnal
temperature swings will be greatly limited by the lingering low
stratus deck and near surface moisture. Look for highs in the mid
20s to near 30F today. Lows should range from the mid teens to near
20F. Wind chills in the single digits are possible over north-
central Indiana.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Wednesday...

Some fog may linger Wednesday morning. Otherwise, quiet weather can
be expected with high pressure influencing the area. Warm advection
ahead of an approaching cold front may be able to boost temperature
into the 30s.

Wednesday night into Thursday...

A potent cold front will move through the area Wednesday night.
While the front won`t have a lot of moisture to work with, the
strength of the cold air moving in will likely squeeze out some snow
showers. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some areas pick up a couple of
tenths of snow.

By daybreak Thursday, single digit temperatures will be in the far
northwest, with wind chills below zero there. Clouds will decrease
on Thursday as much drier air moves in, but thanks to strong cold
advection, temperatures will only rebound into the teens northwest
and middle 20s southeast. Winds will diminish as the day progresses
with high pressure moving in.

Friday and Saturday...

Some weak upper waves will move through, but there won`t be enough
forcing or moisture for any precipitation. Lows early Friday morning
will see lows in the single digits across much of the area, but
readings may warm some by daybreak Friday with warm advection. Highs
by Saturday will have rebounded back into the upper 20s to middle
and upper 30s.

Saturday night into Sunday night...

An upper trough and low pressure system may bring precipitation to
central Indiana. Confidence is low in specifics with timing and
strength differences between model guidance. Will keep some low PoPs
around during this period, but PoPs may rise with later forecasts if
timing and strength become more apparent. Temperatures will remain
below normal.

Monday and beyond...

For now Monday looks quiet with high pressure moving in, but
precipitation chances return around Tuesday with another low
pressure system moving in. Uncertainty here remains high with
differences in the low pressure strength. Precipitation could be
rain or snow depending on the strength and path of the system.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Impacts:

- Predominately IFR through much of the period with MVFR conditions
  at times.

- Potential for LIFR conditions at a few sites late tonight into
  Tuesday morning and again Tuesday evening into the overnight

- Snow tapering off before daybreak Tuesday with advection fog
  becoming increasingly likely Tuesday night

Discussion:

Snow is ongoing across central Indiana with MVFR/IFR conditions.
These conditions will persist at least the next several hours as the
associated short wave passes. This will allow ongoing conditions to
persist and poor flying weather. Snow will taper off around 08-10Z.

Increasing subsidence aloft after that continue to suggest low cigs
and IFR to MVFR conditions through the period, but visibilities
should improve. Fog development is becoming increasingly likely
Tuesday night due to warm air advection over snowpack. Visibility
restrictions will be added for most sites Tuesday night in the next
update.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Melo