304
FXUS63 KIND 050702
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
302 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly Sunny and Very warm today; Increasing clouds tonight.

- Widespread rain and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday

- Dry weather with seasonable temperatures return for Wednesday
  through next weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure over
the east coast, extending its influence west into the Ohio Valley
and into the eastern Plains States. Light south winds were in place
across Central Indiana, with moist dew points mainly in the middle
50s. GOES19 shows clear skies across Indiana and much of the region.
Some high clouds were found along the Gulf coast and over the high
plains...but those will be Monday`s weather-makers. Aloft, water
vapor showed strong ridging in place over the Appalachians extending
north into eastern Ontario. Strong subsidence was found across
Indiana and the Ohio and Mississippi river valleys.

Today and Tonight...

Only small, subtle change are expected in today`s weather. Models
show the strong ridging aloft to the east moving farther east,
allowing for the development of southwesterly flow aloft. Models
suggest little in the way of forcing dynamics flowing across Indiana
today. Tonight, two systems will begin their approach toward
Indiana. The first will be an upper level weather disturbance over
the deep south, and the second is associated with a deepening upper
trough pushing out of the high plains. Neither of these systems
appear to impact Indiana today, however some high cloud may begin to
invade overnight as they approach.

Forecast soundings today again show a dry column with little overall
change in the airmass. A mid level inversion is shown to be present
this afternoon, thus while some CU will likely form vertical growth
will be limited. Thus another mostly sunny day will be in store.

An increasing pressure gradient within the lower levels due to the
departure of the surface high may allow for higher wind speeds, with
values around 10-15mph. An afternoon gust to around 20 will be
possible. This good mixing with little change in the airmass will
allow for slightly higher temperatures today.

Furthermore, the slightly higher temperatures and stronger winds
combined with recent dry conditions will result in a enhanced fire
weather risk, with farm field fires possible.

Tonight, as discussed above, little moisture or forcing appears
available. However, forecast soundings in the evening change from
very dry to a clearly increasing moisture signal overnight. Thus
this should be the arrival of some increasing high clouds during the
overnight. Thus an increasing cloudiness type forecast should work.
Overnight lows should be in the upper 50s and lower 60s given the
increasing clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Summer is still holding strong for much of the CONUS despite it
being the first week of October...however a shift in the weather
pattern is on the way bringing rain and slightly cooler temperatures.

Monday and Tuesday...

The work week begins with another hot Autumn day as the state
remains in a southerly flow pattern ahead of an approaching front
from the west. Strong warm and moist air advection into the region
and partly sunny skies support highs in the low to mid 80s once
again with rising humidity, making it feel more like summer. Subtle
boundaries and waves of energy ahead of the front within the warm
sector may spark off scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon,
within a warm, humid, and destabilizing environment. Storm coverage
should remain isolated to scattered as the best forcing for ascent
will still be well to the west Monday afternoon.

Expect precipitation coverage to increase late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning as the front approaches and the low level jet
ramps up. Keeping low thunder chances in the forecast for this time
period as just enough elevated CAPE may be present to support
isolated lightning strikes. Heaviest precipitation is expected
across the Southern half of the state, with guidance suggesting a
precip maxima somewhere in southern Indiana and along the Ohio
River. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are likely for
Central Indiana with higher totals possible for areas that get
repeated rounds of convection. Greatest chances for rain and storms
shift toward the southern and eastern half of Central Indiana during
the day on Tuesday as the front makes its way through the state.
Tuesday will likely be the most dreary day within the long term as
much drier weather returns for the rest of the week and into the
following weekend.


Wednesday through Sunday...

A brief taste of Fall arrives Wednesday and Thursday as high
pressure moves in across the Upper Great Lakes with cold air
advection and northerly flow across Indiana. Expect highs in the mid
60s to low 70s with overnight lows in the 40s during this time.

Dry weather likely persists into the following weekend as surface
high pressure remains the dominant weather feature in the long term.
Long range guidance suggest a slow warm up back to the low to mid
70s for Central Indiana with mainly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1142 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Impacts:

- None; Mainly VFR conditions are expected.

Discussion:

Mainly VFR conditions are expected throughout the period...but
ground fog cannot be ruled out near sunrise at all but KIND.

Strong high pressure east of the middle Atlantic States along with a
westward extending surface ridge to KY and MO was continuing to
control the weather across Central Indiana. GOES19 shows clear skies
across the state.

The high will maintain control over the TAF sites through Sunday
along with subsidence in place aloft. A few diurnal cu will be
possible this afternoon, but forecast soundings again depict a mid
level inversion that should prevent deep vertical growth. Southerly
winds will increase in response to a tightening surface pressure
gradient...with the potential for periodic gusts to around 20kts in
the afternoon at KHUF and KLAF.

High clouds will begin to invade after 060600Z as an upper trough
approaches from the northwest, along with an upper disturbance from
the south.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...Puma