997
FXUS63 KIND 021437
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
937 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of freezing fog tonight, potentially locally dense in
  spots.

- Light snow is possible Wednesday night.

- Wind chills around zero will be across northern areas
  early Thursday and again Thursday night.

- Light snow is again possible Sunday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 937 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Cloudy and cold conditions across central Indiana this morning in
the wake of the snow overnight. 3 to 5 inches of snow was common
across much of the central part of the forecast area with a
localized maxima of 5 to 6+ inches over northern Shelby into Rush
Counties where heavier snow bands lingered longer. Temps this
morning were in the 20s with northwest winds at 5-10mph.

Quiet weather expected for the rest of the day as a surface ridge
pokes into the region. However with moisture remaining trapped
beneath a boundary layer inversion...expecting little in the way of
any thinning of the stratus deck through late day. Temperatures are
also likely to move little with the clouds holding firm. Expect most
locations will remain in the mid and upper 20s.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Latest KIND radar imagery depicts snow ongoing across central
Indiana with the most widespread coverage across the southeast half
of the area. Visibility reductions as low as 1/4 to 3/4 of a mile
have been observed with an organized band moving eastward across
south-central Indiana. Strong frontogenetical forcing is promoting
this heavier band which will continue to shift eastward over the
next few hours. Expect generally 1-2 inches of additional snowfall
across the southeast half of central Indiana with lower amounts
towards the north and west. Locally higher amounts up to 3 inches
cannot be ruled out over far southeastern counties where snow will
persist for a longer duration.

Look for snow to end shortly near far W/NW portions of central IN as
mid-upper level forcing from the associated wave shifts east. Deeper
moisture will also shift east while drier air filters in aloft. Snow
will then taper off west to east through the early morning hours
with all of central Indiana in the clear by about 6am. Model
guidance depicts increasing heights aloft and surface high pressure
building through the day. This should help keep a low stratus deck
in place during much of the day and possibly well into the
overnight for a large part of the area.

There is growing confidence in areas of freezing fog developing
tonight with increasing warm air advection over a healthy early
December snowpack. Most high resolution guidance also depicts fog
developing this evening and continuing through much of the
overnight. Diurnal temperature swings will be greatly limited by
the lingering low stratus deck and near surface moisture. Look for
highs in the mid 20s to near 30F today. Lows should range from
the mid teens to near 20F. Wind chills in the single digits are
possible over north-central Indiana tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Wednesday...

Some fog may linger Wednesday morning. Otherwise, quiet weather can
be expected with high pressure influencing the area. Warm advection
ahead of an approaching cold front may be able to boost temperature
into the 30s.

Wednesday night into Thursday...

A potent cold front will move through the area Wednesday night.
While the front won`t have a lot of moisture to work with, the
strength of the cold air moving in will likely squeeze out some snow
showers. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some areas pick up a couple of
tenths of snow.

By daybreak Thursday, single digit temperatures will be in the far
northwest, with wind chills below zero there. Clouds will decrease
on Thursday as much drier air moves in, but thanks to strong cold
advection, temperatures will only rebound into the teens northwest
and middle 20s southeast. Winds will diminish as the day progresses
with high pressure moving in.

Friday and Saturday...

Some weak upper waves will move through, but there won`t be enough
forcing or moisture for any precipitation. Lows early Friday morning
will see lows in the single digits across much of the area, but
readings may warm some by daybreak Friday with warm advection. Highs
by Saturday will have rebounded back into the upper 20s to middle
and upper 30s.

Saturday night into Sunday night...

An upper trough and low pressure system may bring precipitation to
central Indiana. Confidence is low in specifics with timing and
strength differences between model guidance. Will keep some low PoPs
around during this period, but PoPs may rise with later forecasts if
timing and strength become more apparent. Temperatures will remain
below normal.

Monday and beyond...

For now Monday looks quiet with high pressure moving in, but
precipitation chances return around Tuesday with another low
pressure system moving in. Uncertainty here remains high with
differences in the low pressure strength. Precipitation could be
rain or snow depending on the strength and path of the system.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 647 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Impacts:

- Predominately IFR through much of the period with brief MVFR
  conditions possible at times.

- Potential for brief LIFR ceilings at a few sites this morning with
  a greater chance this evening into tonight

- Advection fog likely tonight with IFR or worse visibilities
  possible

Discussion:

Predominately IFR ceilings are ongoing across central Indiana. A
strengthening subsidence inversion will keep a low stratus deck in
place today allowing ongoing conditions to persist for much of the
period. Brief improvements to MVFR are possible today, but
the inversion leads to low confidence in ceilings lifting.

Visibilities have improved across the area as snow tapers off.
However, freezing fog development is becoming increasingly likely
tonight due to warm air advection over a healthy early December
snowpack. IFR or worse visibilities are possible with the greatest
confidence in fog development near the northern TAF sites. IFR or
worse ceilings are also possible overnight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Melo