404
FXUS63 KIND 081706
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1206 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday,
  transitioning to snow showers at times Wednesday evening through
  Friday

- Breezy or windy conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday

- Arctic outbreak expected this weekend with low temperatures in the
  single digits and potentially dangerous sub-zero wind chills

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Surface analysis late this morning shows a broad area of high
pressure stretching from the Great Lakes across IL to OK and TX.
GOES16 shows some stratus still lingering near the Ohio River,
while the Central and northern parts of Indiana were under mainly
clear skies. A few cirrus were found there due to the quick flow
aloft. Aloft, quick northwest flow was in place aloft and a weak
shortwave over EKY and OH was exiting quickly. Temperatures were in
the teens and lower 20s.

Forecast remains on track as the surface high and subsidence aloft
will continue to push across Indiana today. This will result in
continued mostly sunny skies and only a few cirrus passing. Weak
cold air advection will continue until tonight, thus highs will only
reach the upper 20s to around 30. Overall, ongoing forecast is on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

The residual boundary following the shortwave passage will continue
to push south this morning. Along it, low stratus with isolated
flurries is possible. This boundary will interact with an
approaching low level wave from the south over the next few hours.
This may allow for some weak deformation and greater forcing over
southern Indiana isolated bands of snow forming. The greatest threat
for this will be closer to the IN/KY border, but there is a low
chance this is able to clip far southern portions of central
Indiana. If any accumulating snow does occur it will likely end by
5AM, with all forcing south of the region by dawn.

The rest of the short term is expected to have quiet weather as a
surface high settles over the region along with a colder airmass.
Single digit wind chills are expected near or north of I-70 this
morning. The arrival of the cooler air mass along with lingering
cloud cover behind the wave will likely hamper diurnal temperature
gains today with highs generally in the mid 20s to low 30s despite
increasing sunshine in the afternoon.

Guidance depicts a weak system passing to the north of the area
tonight into Tuesday promoting greater cloud cover. Precipitation is
not expected due to forcing remaining well to the north and limited
moisture return. Increasing warm air advection overnight will start
slightly warmer temperature trend with lows likely only falling into
mid teens to low 20s. As the wave nears from the north, an
increasing pressure gradient will lead to strengthening winds with
occasional gusts possible at times over far NW portions of the area
near daybreak Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

The long term period features a brief warm up above freezing midweek
before another arctic blast engulfs the region by the end of the
week and into the weekend. Numerous weak weather systems pass
through the Great Lakes this week, bringing periodic chances for
light precipitation.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Quiet weather conditions are expected at the beginning of the period
as a dry airmass remains over the region. Guidance depicts a weak
system passing to the north of the area early Tuesday promoting
greater cloud cover. Precipitation is not expected due to forcing
remaining well to the north and limited moisture return. Another
system is expected to quickly move in Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Deeper moisture return and stronger forcing supports increasing
chances for precipitation. It does appear the strongest forcing
should be to the north again though resulting in light QPF amounts.

Predominately rain is expected with continued warm air advection
keeping temperatures above freezing. Light snow may briefly mix in
Wednesday as colder air filters in behind the cold front. An early
FROPA will likely lead to temperatures cooling through the day. Look
for a strong pressure gradient to promote breezy or windy conditions
Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Strengthening southwesterly flow
will also help to warm temperatures into the upper 30s to
possibly mid 40s both days.

Thursday through Sunday...

Expect temperatures to trend colder late this week, especially
Friday into the weekend with a deep trough and arctic high advecting
a much colder airmass into the region. Guidance depicts a shortwave
moving through Thursday bringing the potential for light snow.
Limited moisture return and modest forcing at best limits confidence
in snow chances though. Will keep POPs at 30 percent or lower. Light
snow showers are also possible Friday as a deeper trough moves in
from Canada. The one caveat is overall moisture remains very
limited. Any light snow could potentially result in minor
accumulations though due to cold ground temperatures.

There is high confidence for very cold arctic air to move into the
area late this week and into the weekend with the aforementioned deep
trough. An arctic high settling in over the weekend will also help
to advect much colder air towards central Indiana. Widespread single
digit temperatures are likely with potentially dangerous sub-zero
wind chills Friday night into Saturday morning and Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Look for highs generally in the teens Saturday.
Northern portions of the area may not see wind chills higher than
the single digits for multiple days.

Will have to watch if there is any snow accumulation before the
arctic outbreak as this may result in temperatures much colder than
what guidance currently depicts. Any additional snow pack may lead
to sub zero lows, especially for North Central Indiana Saturday and
Sunday nights.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1206 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR Conditions this TAF period.

- Brief MVFR Cigs possible at BMG through 20Z.

Discussion:

GOES19 shows lingering stratus across southern Indiana impacting
BMG. Elsewhere skies were mostly clear with only a few passing CI
present.

Strong surface high pressure will drift across the TAF sites this
afternoon and evening, leading to continued VFR conditions amid
subsidence.

Overnight, the high will drift east of Indiana and warm air
advection will begin. This will allow for the advancement of some mid
level clouds across the TAF sites as surface winds become southerly.

On Tuesday, mid level clouds will still linger along with VFR
conditions, however a tightening surface gradient across the area
will allow for some wind gusts near 20 knts after daybreak on
Tuesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Melo/CM
AVIATION...Puma