818
FXUS63 KIND 231855
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
155 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog tonight. Patchy dense fog possible

- Rain expected Monday night into Tuesday

- Turning colder beginning Wednesday into next weekend

- Watching next weekend into the following week for a strong storm
  system to bring rain, snow, and large temperature swings to Indiana

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 154 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

The remainder of the afternoon will see plentiful sunshine for much
of central Indiana. The exception will be across far southwestern
portions of the area where some lower clouds will persist.

Higher dewpoints show some lower level moisture remains across
across portions of the southern forecast area this
afternoon, and satellite show stratus nearby to the south. As high
pressure slides to the east tonight, winds will become light
southeasterly. This will allow the moisture to return north.

An inversion will set up again, trapping the moisture. Thus, expect
some fog and stratus to form once again and spread north across
central Indiana. This should occur mainly during the overnight
hours, but could start this evening in the southwest.

Some patchy dense fog, similar to this morning, is likely. However,
questions remain on the extent of the dense fog, as well as how much
stratus develops as well. For now will go with patchy to areas of
fog with some mention of patchy dense fog. Will keep skies partly to
mostly cloudy.

Exactly how the fog/stratus plays out will have an impact on low
temperatures. More stratus and earlier development will keep
temperatures warmer, but colder readings may be observed in dense
fog areas. Will go with mainly lower and middle 30s, with some upper
30s in the far southwest where clouds will form earliest.

Fog and stratus will hang around Monday morning, then they should
mix out as heating occurs and winds increase some from the south.
However, mid and high level clouds will be on the increase ahead of
an approaching system. Will go with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

How fast stratus dissipates and how fast the thicker higher clouds
move in will impact high temperatures. Given the uncertainty in
these, will keep highs in the lower and middle 50s most areas,
slightly cooler than the previous forecast.

Some lift from the approaching system could bring some light rain
later in the day, mainly across the far southwest. Will go with some
lower PoPs southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 154 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

A typical meridional fall pattern will ensue next week starting with
the emergence of a deep trough and subsequent surface low late
Monday through Tuesday. This low will pass well to the north,
proving strong WAA to start the long term. This should push
temperatures into the 60s Tuesday, but increasing cloud cover and
showers will inhibit temperature gains during the day. The bulk of
the moisture convergence is currently expected to remain south of
central Indiana, however, modest isentropic lift within the
strengthening LLJ should lead to scattered showers throughout
Tuesday. Mid-level moisture will be minimal throughout, but strong
upper level support and saturation above 500mb could lead to high
rain rates at times. Generally, QPF totals for this event are likely
to remain below 1 inch with most areas below 0.5 inches.

The main frontal boundary attached with the aforementioned low will
approach Tuesday night. Convergence along this boundary may lead to
isolated showers, but the lack of moisture behind the pressure
trough passage earlier on Tuesday will limit shower development.
Despite the lack in showers signifying the front, the temperatures
disparity along this frontal axis will be large, with temperatures
quickly falling 10-15 degrees within a few hours Tuesday night. This
should push lows back into the mid 30s by Wednesday morning.

Behind the frontal passage strong dry/cold advection, along with
high pressure building to the SW should remove any precipitation
chances for Wednesday and Thursday. This same advection will also
lead to steepening low level lapse rates on the periphery of the
high, allowing for strong wind gusts Wednesday afternoon, especially
across NE portions of central Indiana. The current forecast is for
sustained winds of up to 20MPH with gusts in the 35 to 40mph range.

Winter-like temperatures and breezy conditions persist Thanksgiving
and Friday as strong northwesterly flow keeps an arctic airmass
entrenched over the region. While conditions will be fairly dry,
high temperatures may struggle to get above the freezing mark while
wind chill values stay in the teens and 20s.

Following Thanksgiving ensemble solutions begin to vary greatly.
That said, there is growing confidence in a strong baroclinic zone
setting up across the Great Lakes region. With a strong jet aloft,
quickly deepening low pressure systems are likely for late next week
leading to a stretch of active weather to end November. Surface
impacts will vary greatly depending on low placement/track, with a
wide range of potential outcomes still remaining.

This active pattern is expected to persist into the following week
with additional waves of precipitation tracking through the state
and large temperature swings. We will be monitoring this timeframe
closely and updating the forecast accordingly as confidence
increases on timing, track, and impacts.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1200 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Impacts:

- IFR conditions in stratus and fog expected most sites tonight
  into Monday morning

Discussion:

Mixing and subsidence continue to dissipate the stratus and fog this
morning. VFR conditions are expected into the evening hours.

Later this evening and into the overnight, stratus and fog will
redevelop and move north as low level moisture returns. This will
likely create IFR conditions, with lower conditions possible.
Questions remain on whether stratus or fog will be dominant and
exactly how low conditions will get.

For now will go with IFR visibility and near IFR ceilings, and later
issuances can refine. These conditions will improve by late Monday
morning.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...50