648
FXUS63 KIND 011606
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1206 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers possible later this afternoon into tonight
  across southern portions of central Indiana.

- Dry weather expected Sunday through the middle of next week.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Surface analysis late this morning shows broad cyclonic flow across
Indiana. This was extending from a deep area of low pressure
northeast of New England. This broad cyclonic flow extended across
much of the northeastern quarter of the United States. Strong High
pressure was found over the high plains and another area of high
pressure was found over the southeastern states. Aloft, an upper
level low was found over IA, along with a deep and trough through
the Mississippi Valley. This feature was spreading scattered light
rain showers over southern MO. Dew points across Central Indiana
were mainly in the 30s.

This afternoon, the upper low is expected to pivot eastward. This
will allow the showers and forcing over MO to slowly progress
eastward, reaching the southern parts of Central Indiana by mid to
late afternoon. Thus have kept a dry forecast until 19Z, with small
chances thereafter.

Elsewhere partly sunny skies will be found across the area as
passing mid clouds associated with the low pass from time to time.
Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will fail to be
reached and continue to show mainly dry air within the lower levels,
Thus the northern parts of the forecast area will remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A mid/upper-level low currently over northern Iowa is dropping
southeastward. Guidance shows this system approaching Indiana this
afternoon, likely passing just south or even over the far southern
portions of the state. Such a trajectory spares central Indiana from
the primary axis of rainfall. With little moisture flow at the
surface, rainfall will be generally light and scattered in nature.
However, amounts up to a quarter of an inch are possible. Global
models tend to show the highest amounts, while higher-resolution
guidance has trended drier in recent runs. The best chance of
rainfall will be later this afternoon and into tonight across the
southern portions of the CWA.

Temperatures today will be moderated by increasing cloud cover later
this morning into the afternoon. There will be enough sunshine early
to allow for a quick climb into the low to mid 50s before leveling
off. Likewise, lows tonight will be warmest across the south where
clouds linger and cooler to the north with earlier clearing.
Temperatures near freezing are possible across our far northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The overall synoptic pattern indicated by ensemble guidance is that
of continued broad large-scale troughing over the eastern CONUS.
Additionally, a fairly progressive jet stream looks to prevail for
at least another week. However, a storm track largely to our north
in combination with limited moisture return will reduce rainfall
chances this weekend and into next week.

Next week, most deterministic guidance shows continued dry weather
with only a couple cold fronts passing by from time to time.
Temperatures around normal are favored, with perhaps a push towards
slightly above-normal values by the end of the week. That push of
warm air looks to be driven by increasing southerly flow ahead of a
deeper trough advancing from the Rockies.

There`s broad ensemble agreement on this feature both spatially and
temporally, at least until Friday. After that, guidance begins to
diverge, but there`s enough of a signal for rain by Friday night or
Saturday. However, given that it is over a week out and the trough`s
evolution east of the Rockies may depend on some phasing...forecast
confidence is quite low towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Impacts:

- Clouds invading and very light rain showers possible near BMG
tonight.

- MVFR Cigs will be possible.

Discussion:

VFR Conditions are expected this afternoon as clouds arrive. An
upper level low pressure system over IA will push eastward this
afternoon, allowing associated cloud cover as seen on GOES to push
into the area. A few light showers or sprinkles will be possible
near BMG.

Overnight as the low gets closer and passes to the southwest of
Indiana...MVFR Cigs will be possible. Forecast soundings suggest a
top down saturation overnight with MVFR cloud bases.

Improvement toward VFR cigs is expected by late Sunday morning as
heating, mixing and the arrival of subsidence from the north.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Puma